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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz
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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don't see this in the northeast very often 

The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours.

Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours.

Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now.

Thanks!! Noted for future reference. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The effective version of STP is probably more relevant to this event (using ML values vs. SB), but still notably has values above 2 over the next several hours.

Also take a look at the SHERBE and MOSHE under the Beta section of the mesoanalysis. Good for high shear-low CAPE type events like this. Big values across much of the outlook area right now.

Terrain is decent for viewing of storms in that area of NY and especially in southern Quebec. A shame this one couldn't wait until tomorrow.

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That storm south of Potsdam is quickly ramping and tightening up.  Ain't passing over nothing but trees, but wouldn't be surprised if it were producing already.  Anchored to the warm front but surface based.

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33 minutes ago, BillHarding said:

 

How'd you get those to stream online? I want to setup a cam or two at my place that has good views but I have crappy DSL internet and don't want the stream taking up half of the bandwidth.

I use the Nestcam.  Just have standard cable connection.

Finally bright sun coming out with that muggy feel.  75/62 and should rise now even though its late in the day

HRRR has that severe cell going right over me in C NH.

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This is going to be a pain in the azz to warn on. In these high shear environments, the storm height is effectively taller than it appears on radar. When the updraft gets tilted (due to the shear) it is longer relative to its height. So when looking for a core to a certain level, these storms may not show it before they start producing severe weather.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It's a nice left mover, so probably still a bit elevated.

Agree.  Looks like a left split but the environment shouldn't support that, big loopy hodos even down there.

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Agree.  Looks like a left split but the environment shouldn't support that, big loopy hodos even down there.

Hodographs straighten out quite a bit above 1 km, which would support the elevated left movers. 

But of course still a decent tornado risk from the surface based right movers.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hodographs straighten out quite a bit above 1 km, which would support the elevated left movers. 

But of course still a decent tornado risk from the surface based right movers.

Fair.  I was looking around Albany where winds are more backed, but you're right - this supports an elevated left mover

hrrr_2018050418_001_42.35--73.24.png

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I was just reading the outlook and they mentioned numerous severe gusts across MI...I don't think the thermodynamic environment there was impressive either. Perhaps the high Dcape will help? Maybe it is a bit noteworthy too that we were able to get some pretty decent gusts yesterday and you would think today conveciton would be much deeper. but idk...MLcapes less than 1000...tough to get truly excited 

it was a vitriolic test of the emergency dyckhead system - it was only a test.    :)   I.e., just yankin vested chains -  

No, like I said to you a couple days ago, this Thur/Fri period looked good and always had.  I'm surprised a bit that yesterday didn't work out better but, I noticed in the morning that we were relying on elevate moisture as opposed to SBCAPE - I think that's why things behaved CIN like.

Today is interesting as it's evolved to be less about CAPE and lapse rates/instability and more about momentum transfer - although the helicity up in VT must got some spooked. 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, north side of bowing segments is going to be the place to watch (like near RME right now). That puts the focus through VT, as the tail end of the line is lagging through the Southern Tier at the moment.

As long as it spares Manchester, VT. Playing in a tournament there in the morning. Don’t want to be shut down. 

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