General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Guaranteed EF2 for in the 10 percent tor zone now since Wiz will miss it

 

[WxBlue]

11 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

If I were chasing I'd head right near the border where the front is hanging up.  Probably on the north slope of the Adiorondacks.  Plattsburgh would normally be my target but I think an SE wind off of Champlain isn't likely to be buoyant this time of year, which could create a microscale hindrance to tornado formation near Champlain.

Fast motion would make this event tough to chase, especially with mountainous road network. I'll play storms that'll enter C NH by 23-00z and hope I get cool shots of lightning or shelf cloud. I don't get out of work until 5 anyway.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if I could still make chasing. I get out of work in Branford at 5. ( wishful thinking) 

Not the way you drive. You’ll get there on Sunday. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not the way you drive. You’ll get there on Sunday. 

??? are you implying i drive slow. I'm the total opposite  

[BillHarding]

I'll have to charge the video camera when I get home from work. This could get interesting.

[Typhoon Tip]

can't seem to shed the cirrus shreds... their preventing > 83 ish down here ... DPs are higher though

Without a SB CAPE - this is probably a NW NE deal ... and like we see time and time again, vestigial segments may attempt to enter near or after dark and summarily vanish.  

[yoda]

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 76
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   315 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northeast New York
     Much of Vermont

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may pose a risk of
   isolated tornadoes and a damaging wind gusts.  Later this afternoon
   and evening, the potential for widespread damaging winds will also
   increase as storms approach from the west.

[yoda]

MOD RISK!!!

[yoda]

[BillHarding]

Wow. NOAA is really talking this one up!

[weatherwiz]

WOW...mod risk. Kind of odd to see that with such meager MLcape 

[Hoth]

Feels like it's been a while since we've seen a mod risk in the Northeast. Has there been one since the enhanced risk was added?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

WOW...mod risk. Kind of odd to see that with such meager MLcape 

this is gonna be schweeeet ass schadenfreude bust

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

WOW...mod risk. Kind of odd to see that with such meager MLcape 

It was snowing in northern NY last weekend. Wonder if left over cover in the high peaks can dampen the threat a bit?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is gonna be schweeeet ass schadenfreude bust

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0248 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

   Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NY
   INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected today east of the lower Great
   Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley and western portions of New
   England.  This includes a threat for widespread damaging winds, as
   well as tornadoes across parts of New York and Vermont.

   ...NY/PA into New England...
   Progressive, compact shortwave trough continues to move quickly
   towards the Lower Great Lakes. Strong forcing for ascent along the
   leading edge of this system has resulted in banded thunderstorm
   development across Lower MI and adjacent portions of the Upper OH
   Valley. Numerous severe gusts (i.e. greater than 50 kt) were
   measured around the DTX as this line moved through. This convection
   has weakened somewhat as it moves across the cool water of Lake Erie
   but it is expected to re-intensify quickly once it moves into the
   steep low-level lapse rate environment over western NY and the
   Finger Lakes region. Additionally, storm coverage has increased
   south of Lake Erie across northern OH, with this activity expected
   to pose a downstream wind damage threat. 

   Given current storm and environmental trends, a swath of significant
   wind gusts looks probable from BUF to BTV where very strong winds
   (60 to 70 kt) will exist just above the surface (i.e. 500m to 1000
   km AGL) over the next few hours. Recent BUF VAD sampled the leading
   edge of this stronger flow, measuring 50 kt around 750m. Expectation
   is for these winds to mix down as the convective line moves through.
   As a result, 45% wind probabilities were delineated across the
   region where the best overlap of convective coverage, steep
   low-level lapse rates, and instability exists. This result in an
   upgrade to Moderate Risk from western NY northeastward into the
   Adirondacks.

   As discussed in the previous outlook (appended below),
   isolated/discrete cells are still possible over northeast NY as
   favorable kinematics align with sufficient instability. Tornado
   Watch 76 was recent issued to cover this threat. More short-term
   details can be found in MCD 350.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is gonna be schweeeet ass schadenfreude bust

I was just reading the outlook and they mentioned numerous severe gusts across MI...I don't think the thermodynamic environment there was impressive either. Perhaps the high Dcape will help? Maybe it is a bit noteworthy too that we were able to get some pretty decent gusts yesterday and you would think today conveciton would be much deeper. but idk...MLcapes less than 1000...tough to get truly excited 

[CT Rain]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I was just reading the outlook and they mentioned numerous severe gusts across MI...I don't think the thermodynamic environment there was impressive either. Perhaps the high Dcape will help? Maybe it is a bit noteworthy too that we were able to get some pretty decent gusts yesterday and you would think today conveciton would be much deeper. but idk...MLcapes less than 1000...tough to get truly excited 

You also have 60-70 knots right off the deck. Not going to take much to mix those winds down. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It was snowing in northern NY last weekend. Wonder if left over cover in the high peaks can dampen the threat a bit?

maybe add more moisture  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CT Rain said:

You also have 60-70 knots right off the deck. Not going to take much to mix those winds down. 

maybe this will be a situation where the radar doesn't look impressive but trees are toppling over left and right. 

[WxBlue]

10 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Feels like it's been a while since we've seen a mod risk in the Northeast. Has there been one since the enhanced risk was added?

SPC tweeted out that 9/8/12 was the last time Vermont or New Hampshire had a moderate risk.

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

SPC tweeted out that 9/8/12 was the last time Vermont or New Hampshire had a moderate risk.

Thanks! Last one I remember was in June of '10 (I think) and that was an epic bust down here. Looked like it had all the potential in the world; we had like a 10% hatched tornado outlook and the watch was just a hair shy of PDS level, but cloud debris and paltry lapse rates screwed us and the updrafts just got shredded by the roaring jet.

[wxeyeNH]

Hey,  For anyone interested here is my weather site with my 2 webcams.  Nice 40 mile view to my SW from my hilltop location.  Davis weather info also on the page

http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/

[BillHarding]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey,  For anyone interested here is my weather site with my 2 webcams.  Nice 40 mile view to my SW from my hilltop location.  Davis weather info also on the page

http://www.metrocast.net/~wxeye/

 

How'd you get those to stream online? I want to setup a cam or two at my place that has good views but I have crappy DSL internet and don't want the stream taking up half of the bandwidth.

[eyewall]

I am on the VT side of Lake Champlain of course. I will have good view of whatever comes across.

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

[OceanStWx]

I mean the return period on moderate risks in the Northeast are not great, and neither are 10% tornado probabilities either.

Hopefully SPC isn't getting out over the skis a bit.

[OceanStWx]

While mid level lapse rates are mostly trash (hence meager CAPE so far) the low level lapse rates are doing quite well south of the warm front. That's probably the biggest driver of significant severe in situations like this. Pop a 20 kft updraft and it's already eating 65 knots of flow.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean the return period on moderate risks in the Northeast are not great, and neither are 10% tornado probabilities either.

Hopefully SPC isn't getting out over the skis a bit.

They often seem to struggle a bit in our neck of the woods. Often ignore us in setups that produce or overdo it on days like today. 

[WxBlue]

HRRR kept having that one strong storm streaking across central NH all day long. Might make a play for it when I get off from work and maybe try to get a view of it on eastern shoreline of Lake Winnipesaukee.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, WxBlue said:

HRRR kept having that one strong storm streaking across central NH all day long. Might make a play for it when I get off from work and maybe try to get a view of it on eastern shoreline of Lake Winnipesaukee.

Obviously given the environment, any isolated storm that can pop ahead of the line would be very concerning. The Hudson and Connecticut Valleys channeling the southerly flow helps keep local helicity maxes going in those areas. 

Notably there is Cu bubbling down the Mohawk Valley, so it's possible.

[BillHarding]

Just went outside to stretch the legs a bit and noticed the wind howling like you'd see in the wizard of oz or something. Haven't heard that before in the several years I've been working here.