EastCoast NPZ Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 No rain here today. Sunny and very warm and muggy, but some kind of front slid through late afternoon. Low clouds and much cooler temps. Wish it'd gotten here sooner.... and had been accompanied by some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Incoming DC storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Good amount of loud thunder and lightning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Lol radarscope says max hail of 2.75 inches in southern Fairfax cell right now SE of Lorton... got to be an error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 STW out for the cell now... hail to quarter size though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Another STW out for the northern cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 That was some of the largest hail I've experienced imby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol radarscope says max hail of 2.75 inches in southern Fairfax cell right now SE of Lorton... got to be an error I believe it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That was some of the largest hail I've experienced imby! Bigger than quarters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 One heck of a lightning storm going on just to my south. Weird seeing so much lightning and having such a stable feeling environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, dailylurker said: One heck of a lightning storm going on just to my south. Weird seeing so much lightning and having such a stable feeling environment. Good amount of elevated instability... MUCAPE approaching 1000 to 1500 J/KG per LWX evening AFD update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 I was very skeptical of the NWS' rain forecast today/tonight. I went out on another epic jebwalk after the cold front passed thru this afternoon, and I got caught out. In a soaker. Soaked to the bone. My neighbors kidded me so hard. A couple asked me how's that drought going, lol. I didn't think it was very funny. But yeah, we got some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Nothing overnight in MD's mini desert. Still sitting at 0.5 for the whole month. Yeah I see the very wet looking forecast for this week, but I fully expect to be out there watering the garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 0.44” overnight, 1.07” on May so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1.06 so far for May. All within the last 3 days. Woodbridge Va. NE of me in Lake Ridge more than doubles my total. Missed all severe. Just got the fringe downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 i think there is junk clogging my VP2. Poured last night around 10 and had pea sized hail. Rain gauge didn't budge. Gutters need cleaning too. Shiit was loud. Good storm given the cool temps with the front just to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Northern zones are in the slight for excessive rain risk for Tues/Wed. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk just mentioned it in the severe thread. NAM advertising a nice line dropping out of PA after 21z tomorrow. Looks decent. Maybe I will get that shelf pic I have been longing for this spring. 24 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 0.44” overnight, 1.07” on May so far. 1.37 since Saturday for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 3 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Northern zones are in the slight for excessive rain risk for Tues/Wed. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk The GFS shows the entire Baltimore area getting crushed tomorrow evening/night. 3"+ and then more to come after Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Skies are trying to brighten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Here we go again... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DCC001-150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/ DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-023-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-003-005-007-009-013-019-021-041-051-055-057-059-061-063- 067-087-099-111-125-129-133-150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BEDFORD BLAIR BUTLER CAMBRIA CUMBERLAND FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HUNTINGDON INDIANA JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY SOMERSET WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND YORK $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC003-013-015-043-047-059-061-069-079-091-099-107-113-125-137- 139-153-157-165-171-177-179-187-510-540-600-610-630-660-683-685- 790-820-840-150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON AUGUSTA CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK GREENE HIGHLAND KING GEORGE LOUDOUN MADISON NELSON ORANGE PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG HARRISONBURG MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK STAUNTON WAYNESBORO WINCHESTER $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC001-003-007-009-013-017-021-023-027-031-033-037-041-049-051- 057-061-065-069-071-073-075-077-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103- 105-107-150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BERKELEY BRAXTON BROOKE CALHOUN DODDRIDGE GILMER GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY HARRISON JEFFERSON LEWIS MARION MARSHALL MINERAL MONONGALIA MORGAN OHIO PENDLETON PLEASANTS POCAHONTAS PRESTON RANDOLPH RITCHIE TAYLOR TUCKER TYLER UPSHUR WEBSTER WETZEL WIRT WOOD $$ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 88 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ANZ530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-538-539-540-541-542-543- 150100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0088.180514T1630Z-180515T0100Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD EASTERN BAY CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND $$ ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Was not expecting a sunny day - it is beautiful outside, 79 right now. Meanwhile in Charlottesville 90 with a DP of 70. YUCK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 by radar; Cville looks to be getting pummeled. any reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 High today was 76. Not sure if that is enough for severe but the humidity has gone up noticeably. With the surge of warm air expected tomorrow, I am wondering if a "warm front" will induce thunderstorms in the overnight hours around N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Do we have a derecho now in central/eastern VA? Wow what an impressive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 That was a nice line of storms. Over .75" of rain. Nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Soils are near saturation, and I am hoping for more rain late Tuesday. Runoff will be impressive and I will be conducting more jebwalks along creeks to monitor water levels lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Feels like 98 degrees.. Too hot!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 LWX going gung ho on the heavy rain threat/flooding threat on afternoon AFD: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A several day period marked with high moisture will move into the mid-Atlantic region by the non-tropical low pressure system in the northeast Gulf of Mexico coupled with the Bermuda high off the southeast U.S. Coast. This will bring an anomolous amount of moisture into the region, with precipitable waters approaching 2 inches. Model ensembles bring on the average 2-4 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 6 inches through Friday. While it is difficult to pinpoint at this time when the heaviest rainfall will occur, certainly the 12Z GEFS indicates Wednesday afternoon and Thursday late afternoon/evening with the heaviest rainfall potential, with up to 3/4 inch rainfall forecast in six-hours. This will likely lead to the region having an extended and increasing flood threat through Saturday, which is highlighted in detail in the flood section of this discussion. .HYDROLOGY... After seeing marginal to low-end minor flooding with the precipitation yesterday, and overall a swath of two to four inches of rain from near Cumberland to DC to Prince Frederick recently, more rain is on the way. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect roughly along and north of the US 48 / I-66 / US 50 corridor from 3 PM to 1 AM. More convective development late this afternoon and evening will lead to flood potential, especially given that many areas in the Cumberland- Winchester-Dulles corridor are showing near-saturated soil from the prior rain, and precipitable water remains 1.5 inch or greater along with a deepening warm cloud layer. The surface front moves back into the area tonight and then stalls somewhere in the neighborhood for almost as far as we can feasibly forecast. With a deep and near-persistent moisture feed from the Gulf and Atlantic pumping moisture in through at least Saturday, and that boundary remaining somewhere nearby, this acts as a recipe for heavy rain potential...which is starting to look like more a matter of when and how much, rather than if. At this time, widespread rains of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts, are expected through Friday, and although things get less certain later on in the forecast period, there`s potential for even more rain after Friday. These amounts of rain would definitely be sufficient (given already saturated soil and elevated streams) to cause flooding/flash flooding almost any day through the forecast period, with some potential for significant river flooding late in the week through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 About .75” this evening so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 16, 2018 Share Posted May 16, 2018 This looks fun per Eric Fisher tweet - https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/996584839640993795 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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