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May we finally see the darling buds ... patterns and models


Typhoon Tip

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

12z EURO has ORH at 53F at 2pm Sunday afternoon, lol.

Congrats Tolland Massif too.  

Think you can sell most of that. Should be showers early Sunday with breaks of blue PM. We’ve seen a lot of knee jerks here today. Stay the course . I wouldn’t want to be in SW CT to NYC on Sw though. And maybe CC.That’s the wet zone accordion to model concensus and EPS/ Gefs 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Think you can sell most of that. Should be showers early Sunday with breaks of blue PM. We’ve seen a lot of knee jerks here today. Stay the course . I wouldn’t want to be in SW CT to NYC on Sw though. And maybe CC.That’s the wet zone accordion to model concensus and EPS/ Gefs 

Yeah, those areas you mentioned will probably be the warmest, despite any precipitation.  This is a backdoor wedge as modeled.

Here's the GFS, one of the warmest models for Sunday afternoon. 

Xtihcfa.png

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Think you can sell most of that. Should be showers early Sunday with breaks of blue PM. We’ve seen a lot of knee jerks here today. Stay the course . I wouldn’t want to be in SW CT to NYC on Sw though. And maybe CC.That’s the wet zone accordion to model concensus and EPS/ Gefs 

 What happened to 75 to 85  and all sun ? are you saying Box might not be that clueless after all ? 

 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

 

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday is absolute toast. Monday could be ok in the aftn CT river west with maybe some downslope aid and drying out. Outside shot of 70s in the interior.

Local Mets calling for 74 here on Monday. Take the under ?

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, those areas you mentioned will probably be the warmest, despite any precipitation.  This is a backdoor wedge as modeled.

Here's the GFS, one of the warmest models for Sunday afternoon. 

Xtihcfa.png

Burying Kevin's attention in it aside (...or attempting to do so ...) heh ... that product remarkably well demonstrate the anticylonic gyre of cold air as it rotates away from the tropospheric side-swipe that's taking place farther NE.. 

Caribou Maine for the win!   ahaha..  Beautiful -  it's no different than the two gyres that peel away from the edges of an oar plowing through the water...  Said oar is the S/W stabbing SE out of eastern Ontario...  though it is well east of here, the curl of the western end rotates back west, and the weak mid-level flow in place can't stop... 

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6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you let us know what the Gfs has?

Up here it's 3 skanky days, Sat mild, Sun-Mon cool, all pain but little rain.  We need more than 0.65" to avoid this being the driest of 20 Mays here, and it's not happening unless that nascent tropical storm's moisture gets into Maine.  As of that run, it looks about 300 miles short and/or 24 hours late.

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Blech. Some breaks up here though!

f48.gif

It is possible that the models are right about the generalities but too specifically clammy with the ceilings ... it is late May and the sun is officially in the annual max that last through the first week in August.. .any time in that strata decks get get eaten through for a couple hours in the afternoons..

Monday might be an interesting late high for eastern and central NE ... The Euro wants to simultaneously wash out the boundary and move it through mid afternoon... 50/50 bust out with a west wind kicking in a 4 pm and temp jolt outta eastern NY with that solution. 

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the NAM keeps pushing the BD passage back ... 'nother couple clicks on this run.   Has Logan flipping to ENE with a wind burst at close to 10pm tomorrow night... but man!  It's got sustained E wind at nearly 30 kts at 2am ... That's almost wind advisory stuff for coastal communities...

Now THAT is a BD!  Light SW wind and lingering evening torridity then it's like a strong outflow boundary - the last three cycles it's pushed the front back a couple three hours per run but also makes is sharper and more obtrusive ... whiplashier

Scott might get rudely awakened by turbines overhead...

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Btw ... Alberto is going to protect the OV/NE and upper M/A regions from a heat wave next week...

Once this Nova Scotia bubble finishes stretching the boundary layer west with it's tentacle of cold misery... the backside return flow "would have been" importing an inferno if it were not for the fact that Alberto is likely to roll-up toward the western OV ...effectively blocking the heat source from getting up underneath those expanding heights.  We'll be above 582 DM heights with thicknesses approachin 570 mid week on... but we may never see 80 F...  Humid as holy hell tho.. but probably sans high temps with that.

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