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May we finally see the darling buds ... patterns and models


Typhoon Tip

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56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol...look again

Looked like front was pushed south with any showers up over you in NNE and dry SNE on Sunday. Monday still up in air.

Not that this gives much confidence..but it's certainly possible with Euro  We'll see what the weenie shakes out

Consider the GFS which also feeds Gulf moisture
up the coast while the ECMWF keeps it well to our south.

 

 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

lol...look again

Euro is an epic disaster for the holiday,  figures. Saturdays a hot one but gets cloudy, GFS is hot Sat then cooler Sun Mon with the front through . I hope the GFS is right to save the holiday, which everyone cares about

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looked like front was pushed south with any showers up over you in NNE and dry SNE on Sunday. Monday still up in air.

Not that this gives much confidence..but it's certainly possible with Euro  We'll see what the weenie shakes out


Consider the GFS which also feeds Gulf moisture
up the coast while the ECMWF keeps it well to our south.

 

 

you got to be kidding, right - 

Dude, you're drilling E winds past Albany in that look, wth an air mass passing over almost 900 nautical miles not 5 or 6 weeks past the deepest oceanic cold of the season, and that's consistent in every model - period. 

Can it change...sure... but as it stands now, this weekend is wholly and fairly characterized as savagely porked Sunday and Monday.  

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you got to be kidding, right - 

Dude, you're drilling E winds past Albany in that look, wth an air mass passing over almost 900 nautical miles not 5 or 6 weeks past the deepest oceanic cold of the season, and that's consistent in every model - period. 

Can it change...sure... but as it stands now, this weekend is wholly and fairly characterized as savagely porked Sunday and Monday.  

As long as its not raining I consider that a win. Good time to get some outdoor projects done before real summer. 

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you got to be kidding, right - 

Dude, you're drilling E winds past Albany in that look, wth an air mass passing over almost 900 nautical miles not 5 or 6 weeks past the deepest oceanic cold of the season, and that's consistent in every model - period. 

Can it change...sure... but as it stands now, this weekend is wholly and fairly characterized as savagely porked Sunday and Monday.  

Lol. You’re acting like it’s 50’s and rain. It’s not a cold east wind setup . Maybe NNE is cooler but south of 90 would be 70

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. You’re acting like it’s 50’s and rain. It’s not a cold east wind setup . Maybe NNE is cooler but south of 90 would be 70

This exposes a stark misconception and/or complete ignorance about the principles of both operational Meteorology but the science its self - not sure what else to say...  You are not getting 70 F on a 'fresh' ENE trajectory at this time of year from a new polar high arrival on the backside of a BD passage - 

If 70 occurs it won't be because of what you saw in these runs since last night; it will be because they changed/altered toward a different paradigm entirely  -

 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha good to know you aren't that numb how not to look at the maps.  

Hope and post for the best is the MO right?

 

If he's going to admit to being disingenuous with most of his posts then I'm not sure what his contribution to the forum is besides maybe creating some discussion during dull times.

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If he's going to admit to being disingenuous with most of his posts then I'm not sure what his contribution to the forum is besides maybe creating some discussion during dull times.

:lol: I mean its been well known that the model analysis is interpreted quite differently than most people when actual runs are quoted and just factually wrong.  

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Different interpretations of things is part of life. Different strokes for different folks 

We had TWC in the 90s. Now we have TWZ.

All hype and clicks. Even Tippy has had to somewhat adapt to the tl;dr times.

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Euro did back off on the BD a goodly bit... Not enough to save Brian's misery, no, but... 12z Sunday it's really only over NE Massachusetts... A pretty far NE position compared to nearing NYC on the previous cycle. 

 So, fwiw - it has shallowed out...  It's not even clear if it is getting farther SW of there by 12z Monday ...  ON THIS RUN..  

I don't/wouldn't trust any of it however ... the bottom line is that the flow is NW through eastern Canada, that is inherently dangerous to temperature and dew point enthusiasts...  summer folk.  The Euro was buckin for a flatter flow/ break-down of the +NAO flow through eastern Canada up through early yesterday... backed off... now attempts something similar.  Unstable..

 

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21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

anyway, there are semblance of that finally breaking down... Probably, we slosh the hemisphere over-compensating back the other way... then neutralize summer after some ER visits... after the 4th ...  I'm thinking June may be hot this time after what - 5 years in a row of cool ones. 

... not sure of the '5 years in row' but it f'n seems that way - jesus

It's not just you.  At my place, Junes 1998-2008 averaged 61.4° and since then 59.1°.  No other month has remotely close to that negative trend for those periods.  Oddly, May is just the opposite, such that Junes 98-08 have run 10.1° warmer than Mays, but only 6.0° warmer 2009 on.

Euro did back off on the BD a goodly bit... Not enough to save Brian's misery, no, but... 12z Sunday it's really only over NE Massachusetts... A pretty far NE position compared to nearing NYC on the previous cycle. 

Still gets us up here, and gfs looks even worse - solid clouds from Friday sunset thru Tuesday noon and Sun-Mon 40s-50s misery mist and light RA.  Hoping for something better...

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Different interpretations of things is part of life. Different strokes for different folks 

It's true, sometimes when the Euro shows a high of 84F at BDL and 79F in the hills, it is interpreted as upper 80s to near 90F for all during the +KFS modes.  

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