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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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Denver hit record highs of 93 on Monday and Tuesday. Fort Collins hit record highs the last two days, Tuesday and Wedesday. It was 92 both times for Fort Collins. Fort Collins tied a record high of 92 set on 9/11/1895. Who ever said the 1890's weren't warm??  Today, my car said it was 97 at 445 PM. Gee!  I believe I may be seeing a cloud that's a smoke plume from near Rabbit Ears Pass. It shows up on satellite imagery. The smoke was over the Mummy Range, and the color looked a bit weird. I think NWS Boulder posted a tweet that said (at least) one smaller fire flared up yesterday.

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Some of my analogs have late season East Pacific hurricanes moving up from the Gulf of California in late Sept / Oct. I suspect that will be a key feature in breaking the heat in our area of the world this month. We only hit 90F today officially once again. Have not been above 90F since August. With the warm up lately, I think we're only 0.3F or so below the Sept 1-13 average here for 1981-2010. Next week looks somewhat promising for rain too, which should lower temps again.

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Denver tied a record high with 96, with a low of 64. Average high and low are 80 and 49. That makes it 15 degrees above normal for the day. The winds have been keeping Denver warmer at night.

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It's now been 30 days since there was a day with 0.1" or greater at DEN; total rain over that period has been 0.17". Even for a cactus, that's dry. They say Florence is big; perhaps if it keeps growing it will help us.

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Denver tied a record high with 92 today. High 92, low 60 puts Denver at +12 degrees for the day. Fort Collins had 93/51 on Thursday (yesterday), which was not a record for that date. So, basically, we have had 4 to 6 days of 90 degrees, going back to Sunday. Lows in the low 50s are close to normal though.

 Fort Collins has had 0.01" of rain since August 19th, but my place has had 0.15" since August 19th. In general, this area may finish the month of September with 0.10" of rain or something like that. I am not sure what will happen with future cold fronts, but certainly not much will happen soon. August + September rainfall could be quite low, and the US Drought Monitor will likely expand the D0 coverage in Colorado soon.

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Until/unless Nino 1.2 is warm relative to Nino 3.4, most of the west will stay dry. Nino 1.2 coolness has moved to Nino 3.4, so there might be some kind of pattern shift coming. Nino 1.2 has been colder than 3.4 almost uninterrupted since Oct 2017 and it has been dry for most of that period in the entire West.

If the El Nino does develop this winter as a Modoki with a fairly cold Atlantic, the storm track will be pretty far South at times, so I actually think Denver and even Northern NM and will be near average to somewhat dry, trending to wet by El Paso. I'm expecting +0% by the NM/CO border, -20% by the CO/WY border, and +50% by the NM/MX border for precipitation anomalies in DJF. In the NW, locally anomalies will be up to -40%. Areas near Guadalajara had snow in March 2016, and you had Goliath bringing MX/NM/TX their greatest snow amounts since the 1950s - that isn't really El Nino driven, its AMO driven. The AMO briefly went negative at times in 2014-15 and 2015-16. El Nino is like a hose shooting water at the West, and the AMO controls how the hose is aimed, with the PDO controlling the amount of water coming out of it.

 

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On 9/15/2018 at 11:25 PM, raindancewx said:

Until/unless Nino 1.2 is warm relative to Nino 3.4, most of the west will stay dry. Nino 1.2 coolness has moved to Nino 3.4, so there might be some kind of pattern shift coming. Nino 1.2 has been colder than 3.4 almost uninterrupted since Oct 2017 and it has been dry for most of that period in the entire West.

If the El Nino does develop this winter as a Modoki with a fairly cold Atlantic, the storm track will be pretty far South at times, so I actually think Denver and even Northern NM and will be near average to somewhat dry, trending to wet by El Paso. I'm expecting +0% by the NM/CO border, -20% by the CO/WY border, and +50% by the NM/MX border for precipitation anomalies in DJF. In the NW, locally anomalies will be up to -40%. Areas near Guadalajara had snow in March 2016, and you had Goliath bringing MX/NM/TX their greatest snow amounts since the 1950s - that isn't really El Nino driven, its AMO driven. The AMO briefly went negative at times in 2014-15 and 2015-16. El Nino is like a hose shooting water at the West, and the AMO controls how the hose is aimed, with the PDO controlling the amount of water coming out of it.

If what you are projecting this winter pans out, I would say the northern front range and northern CO mountains are screwed.  However, too early to throw in the towel now as El Nino hasn't even developed yet, and may not even.  The 2009/2010 fall/winter featured a Modoki and was a great snow year for us in Fort Collins.  Sometimes I'm not even sure what pattern to root for any more - just let me know and I'll pray for that :raining:

 

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On 9/15/2018 at 8:04 PM, Chinook said:

Denver (KDEN) reached 94° at 2:25 pm MDT this afternoon breaking the record high of 92° set in 2000.

These temperatures in September are just stupid ridiculous, and seemingly don't bode well for the fall/winter ahead.  Very similar to last year at this time (even worse for dryness this year), and we all know how last winter turned out.  :weep:

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We're going to get a widespread rain event in NM this week. That is usually a good sign that the super highs of the Summer are starting to weaken. The 3 km-NAM is pretty aggressive, but I find it is good within 60 hours here -

DnVUeciVsAAm9rm.jpg:large

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