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Chinook

Mountain West Discussion

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Radar shows a wide, strong rotation near Limon. I'm not sure if this correlates to a large tornado or not. One tornado has been reported near Limon.

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The sun will never set at 67 degrees north today. The satellite is capable of seeing up to latitude 70 N or 80 N.

pJGXsq1.jpg

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32 minutes ago, Chinook said:

We've already got 96 degrees at Fort Collins-Loveland Airport! look at this

sd0gWnQ.jpg

At least your lows are decent and your dew points are low. Try upper 90's with dew points near 80. That was us last week

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Hot out there. Fun fact from BOU forecast discussion: a heat burst last night from a collapsing thunderstorm raised the temp in Julesburg, CO (far NE corner) to 97 degrees at 1:42 AM. Would have been interesting but not comfortable to be there. Meanwhile there is a nonzero chance to tie the all time Denver high of 105 F. Glad Bike to Work day was yesterday and there were clouds for the PM commute home!

 

EDIT: Aaand we tied it at 2:10 PM.  Now 101 and windy. Positively dessicating.

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June 26 

Fort Collins KFNL hit a 97 (36.1C) on the 6-hr sub-hourly maximum, and 96.0 at the local thermometer at Colorado State. 
KFNL 262356Z AUTO 14007KT 10SM CLR 32/07 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP075 T03220067 10361 20311 56009 

June 27

Fort Collins was 93.7 briefly at the Colorado State location, and KFNL airport has hit 100 in the sub-hourly max. (37.8 celsius)

KFNL 272356Z AUTO 07011KT 10SM CLR 32/09 A2996 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW SLP075 T03220089 10378 20322 55001

June 28

Fort Collins-Loveland Airport (KFNL) had a sub-hourly max of a scorching 104 (40 C) with a dew point around 30. Colorado State had 100.6, CSU - Christman Field had 102.6. I believe this will count as 101 officially at CSU, making it the hottest day since 2012.

KFNL 282356Z AUTO 16007KT 9SM CLR 34/04 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP001 T03440039 10400 20344 56014

 

Hv7tYfM.jpg

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We've hit 100F on two days this year to date, but only for around 5-10 minutes officially. Lower elevations on the RGV floor have had hours of 100F+ readings though. My threshold for extreme heat down here is 103F or more, with a dewpoint over 45F, at that level it can be 90F at midnight and the people with swamp coolers suffer somewhat.

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Some more information about record-breaking temperatures yesterday. Plus, we have new wildfires in CO.

Pueblo information listed here is from June 27th (Wednesday)

M282hC2.jpg

 

Ff1TMDQ.jpg

 

 

rLyztq9.jpg

 

LUkvOK3.png

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My June outlook went with a blend of 1963, 1968, 1968, 1972, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2009, 2014 - those years had a fairly cool NE and the rest of the US warm. Looks good so far. Tentative idea for the winter is a blend of 1963, 1996, 2009, not a particularly good El Nino setup for the West, but a low-solar, weak El Nino, with a similar look in the Atlantic and a Modoki structure.

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I picked up a quick .75" of very welcome rainfall over an hour and a half this evening.  Lightning was intense and pretty much continuous pea size hail, although it did get up to quarter size for a while.

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nice... areas north of Boulder did well. Hopefully the rest of us will get in on the action today. Air is pretty moist and winds mostly upslope, so need a trigger. Can't wait for the real monsoon to decrease the smoke in the air.

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20 hours ago, ValpoVike said:

I picked up a quick .75" of very welcome rainfall over an hour and a half this evening.  Lightning was intense and pretty much continuous pea size hail, although it did get up to quarter size for a while.

The storm fell apart as it neared Fort Collins, but we got some rain. Loveland got heavy rain and large hail. I videoed the storm as some of the lightning bolts hit near Horsetooth Mountain, or perhaps in the range of 5-15 miles west of town. I got dozens of bolts on video. Here are two:

HuHhkCm.jpg

 

MeM0fBm.jpg

 

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In fairness, LA kind of sucks.

One of the nice things about being in the mountains, away from the oceans is that we tend to have our warmest and coldest days by solstice, I doubt we hit 100F again this year, and we only got there for around 10 minutes in June.

I help run the numbers for a casino now, and a flukish super heavy rain event happened about an hour after I left work the other day, it actually kind of broke the roof and caused a leak in one spot, which damaged some of the slot machines.

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I have seen a tweet showing that the 700mb heights across the middle part of the country today (3270m) were a record compared to climatology (CFSR reanalysis)

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This is really a pretty good weather picture posted by the Colorado Rockies organization. "Chuck Nasty" i.e. Charlie Blackmon. Variations of light and dark emanating away from the sun are called crepuscular rays.

eCK7YGt.jpg

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With clouds and spotty rain today, we only hit the 80s, which is always nice in June or July.

Starting to wonder if the July high here will end up below the long-term average of 92F - I don't think we've had a below average month for highs (1951-2010) since August 2017.

Doesn't really seem like we're going to have many days above 90-92F for the next two weeks here, and quite a few (if it rains) will be in the 83-87F range, which is cold for July here.

Cold/Wet July heavily favors a cold/wet December here - so here is hoping it rains a lot more this July. We've had two essentially snow-free Decembers in the city after a run of years where it snowed every December, wouldn't be surprised if we snapped back to a more normal winter pattern for the SW. Some kind of El Nino seems to be developing, with the SOI, subsurface, and Nino 3.4 all favorable at the moment.

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On 7/8/2018 at 7:05 PM, raindancewx said:

With clouds and spotty rain today, we only hit the 80s, which is always nice in June or July.

 

Consider yourself lucky to have had some temps in the 80s. My area has had 5 days of high 90s temperatures (Saturday- Wednesday), at least at Fort Collins-Loveland airport (including two 100s). Today it got up to 87 here before some heavy rain and occasional thunder happened. It rained for a while, and dropped our temp to 63.  Denver has gotten no rain today.

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The mountains have had enough rain down here to largely eliminate the risk of major wild fire expansion. Thunderstorms keep missing where my house is, but I'm sure we'll get something eventually in July. The month to date temperature anomalies look like one of the patterns I expect to see in the winter...warm CA, NE, MW cold SE, TX, NM, near normal NW.

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Last two days were looking promising a few days ago for the Denver Metro, but the precip forcefield continues, with nada since Sunday's localized PM storm. Officially, July precip at the airport is 0.02 inches. At least we broke the string of 95+ F days. Tomorrow we resume. We'll see about next week.

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Next week, the GFS/Ensembles show some below normal temps, but the NWS calls for 85, 86, 87, 92 from Sunday to Wednesday, which is normal-ish. So I guess we will see if we can get lucky and get some cooler low-mid 80s with one or two days with rain showers. At this time of year, the 5-day forecast isn't terribly accurate anyway.

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NWS has a flash flood watch for the Denver Metro this afternoon. Latest HRRR model has most of the metro area completely dry, with almost all the instability and QPF to the north and east. It's quite cloudy and quite cool, making me think it will stay bone dry here (again). We'll see who wins.

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At least it is 30 degrees cooler than yesterday's highs. There could be some more rain popping up in the foothills and moving towards the Denver metro.

zqUcMO1.jpg

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And it's raining. Hi-res has been all over the place the past 3 hours. Places the 17z had zero had 1" predicted on the 19z, then the 20z is completely out to lunch with nothing north and east of about Littleton. I wonder if it had been paying too much attention to the convection 50 miles to the east, that has fizzled with rapidly recovering dewpoints. So who knows. Just want to get rid of the crispiness for a few days. The cool air is welcome anyway!!

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We've had some dew points in the 60s here (F) which is pretty impressive. City had 0.62" officially yesterday, now over 2 inches of rain since June 1, 0.69" of it in July. Hasn't been above 92F since 7/4, so its been fairly wet/cool. Been interesting seeing the easterly waves interact with the moisture in place.

 

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14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

We've had some dew points in the 60s here (F) which is pretty impressive. City had 0.62" officially yesterday, now over 2 inches of rain since June 1, 0.69" of it in July. Hasn't been above 92F since 7/4, so its been fairly wet/cool. Been interesting seeing the easterly waves interact with the moisture in place.

 

Las Vegas actually had a dewpoint of 74 yesterday.  I wonder if that's a new record?  I didn't think such high Td's were possible in that part of the world. 

I know the monsoon visits the area in July-August, but my understanding is that the greatest impacts are typically further east than Las Vegas.

 

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That's true, it's extremely rare. I don't know if it's a record. I checked NWS Las Vegas twitter feed to see if there was a comment on record dew point, but no comment. They posted a rainfall map of 7/14 showing up to 0.63" of rain SE of Las Vegas and up to 0.91" of rain SW of Las Vegas. With the lack of air mixing at nighttime, I guess the rain contributed to such a high dew point. Then the daytime mixing set in and the moisture went to other places.

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We had another hot one here with 96 at Fort Collins-CSU and 95 at FNL airport. It's very unusual that the airport was cooler by 1 degree. Yesterday was a reasonable 84 degrees, with a few raindrops and dew points of 60. On Sunday, we had some steady rain.

Oh well, it's not as Dallas. Sorry, Dallas people, 108 doesn't sound fun.

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