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Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3


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Plan of the Day: First target is north side of DL bulge in west-central OK. Second target is east of TP in southern Kansas. I would eat lunch in Woodward thanks to roads in six directions out of town. Keep in mind a few lights in the center of town.
 
DL Bulge (north side of it): 12Z CAMs are more bullish with DL convection. DL bulges in the afternoon but stops/retreats which should not be a problem. Gravity wave(s) made it into southern Oklahoma (VIS 15Z-ish); and, they count as boundaries to intersect the DL. Note after 00Z model helicity blows up in southwest OK but I believe it is feedback. I still lean toward I-40 north.
 
Kansas TP (just east of it): Coldwater to Medicine Lodge may offer another target. 12Z CAMs are less messy, but still a lot of cells. Keep in mind reality could over or under perform CAMs. Stationary front should stall with low press in southwest Kansas. Might be the outflow between US-54 and US-160 on VIS as I type. If so, these targets are near equals.
 
Conclusion: DL bulge is slightly favored today thanks to deeper moisture than on Tue. East of TP is a legit if not equal second target. Maybe spread the crowd? Also I'd go 15% hatched TOR down to I-40, which is MDT for TOR. Safe chasing and good luck!
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Tornado watch coming soon for TX panhandle/W OK and S Kansas.  Looks like concerns about early initiation were valid

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0313.html

 

 

image.png.ee4cee424b520b748f8328fdfd106c11.png

SUMMARY...Development of additional thunderstorms is expected
   between 17-19Z across portions of the Texas Panhandle into the
   eastern Oklahoma Panhandle into southwest and south-central Kansas. 
   Severe storms will be likely by early afternoon, with all severe
   hazards possible, including very large hail and a tornado threat.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in morning surface analyses and visible
   satellite imagery showed a quasistationary boundary extending from
   extreme southeast NE to southwest KS into the OK Panhandle (east of
   KGUY) to far northern TX Panhandle.  In KS this boundary was
   analyzed at 15Z to the south of KCNK and south of KGBD.  Although
   surface heating, given breaks in high-level clouds, is resulting in
   mixing, persistent southerly low-level winds are compensating to
   maintain surface dew points in the middle-upper 60s from the eastern
   TX Panhandle into western and central OK to southern and eastern KS.
   Moisture return has also spread farther westward this morning into
   more of the TX Panhandle.  This moisture combined with diabatic
   heating will further weaken inhibition, resulting very strong
   instability (MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon. 

   Recent lightning data, satellite and radar imagery showed a storm
   had developed near the intersection of the quasistationary boundary
   and dry line in Hansford County TX (extreme northern TX Panhandle).

   A 70-75 kt southwesterly 500-mb jet accompanying a shortwave trough
   will move through the southern High Plains early this afternoon and
   proceed downstream into western OK to central KS by late afternoon. 
   Forcing for ascent attendant to this trough and exit region of the
   500-mb jet are expected to reach western portions of the discussion
   area between 17-19Z supporting additional storm development into the
   afternoon.  This scenario is suggested by the last several runs of
   the operational HRRR and the 12Z HREF.  These initial storms will
   continue to form from the northern TX Panhandle to part of southwest
   and adjacent south-central KS where low-level convergence is the
   strongest, given strengthening low-level winds into the
   quasistationary boundary.  Storms will also develop equatorward
   along and east of the dryline, as it mixes eastward this afternoon
   into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, and into western OK.  The
   available MUCAPE and increasing effective bulk shear will be
   favorable for supercells producing tornadoes, very large hail, and
   damaging winds.  Storms that develop along the dryline and into
   western OK will have a greater likelihood to be discrete, given
   shear vectors crossing the initiation boundary.  Shear vectors in
   vicinity of the boundary in KS may tend to be more parallel
   resulting in bows with embedded supercells.
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Just taking a look at mesoanalysis right now and it looks to me like the NAM was shunting the LLJ significantly too far E through the day today given I'm seeing 30-40 kts at 850 mb over most of W OK. This should portend better low level shear for storms that do go up early.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 61
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     A large part of Kansas

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
     until 1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely

   SUMMARY...Numerous to widespread severe storms will develop from
   southwest into central and northeast Kansas this afternoon. Damaging
   winds, very large hail, and tornadoes are expected.
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22 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Just taking a look at mesoanalysis right now and it looks to me like the NAM was shunting the LLJ significantly too far E through the day today given I'm seeing 30-40 kts at 850 mb over most of W OK. This should portend better low level shear for storms that do go up early.

Based on mesoanalysis, low-level shear is a bit better than earlier progs suggested it would be. 15-20+ knots of 0-1km shear coupled with relatively low LCLs from the eastern portion of the Texas panhandle into western Oklahoma would support at least some tornado threat early on, especially given the degree of instability. 

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TOR PROBS 70/70 for new TORNADO WATCH for OK/TX

 

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 62
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   100 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western Oklahoma
     Eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas

   * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 100 PM
     until 1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Additional severe storms will develop along the dryline
   over the eastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon and spread east into
   western Oklahoma and a part of western North Texas. Very large hail
   will be the primary initial hazard, with a risk for tornadoes and
   damaging winds increasing late afternoon into early evening.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Alva OK to
   55 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU2).
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Two targets have solidified as of 19Z. Both are boundaries. No need for models/CAMs now...

Storm should ride the US-160 boundary in southern Kansas. One near Medicine Lodge is all by itself. Also got a beast farther west trying to detach from the line.

East-central Texas Panhandle boundary intersection is clear as can be on GOES 16. Also cell just popped on AMA radar. Follow that into west-central Oklahoma. It's on the dry line bulge too.

Both targets are solid fundamentals based regardless of CAMs. Hope it spreads the herd. Be safe and happy chasing!

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First TOR warning of the day

 

Tornado Warning
KSC047-057-097-021930-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0005.180502T1905Z-180502T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Ford County in southwestern Kansas...
  Northwestern Kiowa County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Edwards County in south central Kansas...

* Until 230 PM CDT

* At 205 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both
  tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located 6
  miles southeast of Windhorst, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* These dangerous storms will be near...
  Kinsley around 225 PM CDT.
  Centerview and Fellsburg around 230 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 9958 3772 9965 3795 9948 3790 9926
      3773 9908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 234DEG 39KT 3770 9958

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN
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I'd rather be in the west central Oklahoma, but heading toward Emporia which I view as the next best option. Semi-discrete, potentially tornadic, supercells appear likely ahead of/south of the bow between 21-01Z.

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Mesoscale Discussion 0315
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 61...

   Valid 021947Z - 022145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 61 continues.

   SUMMARY...Latest guidance shows increasing concern for severe,
   damaging wind this afternoon and evening across portions of central
   Kansas ahead of an intensifying cluster of thunderstorms across
   southwest Kansas. These thunderstorms will move quickly to the
   northeast.

   DISCUSSION...Latest observations suggest mesoscale organization of
   the thunderstorm activity, with attendant rear-inflow jet
   development, across southwest Kansas. This larger-scale organization
   will support thunderstorm longevity as they move into an environment
   characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE and low-level
   lapse rates around 8 C/km. This environment and the approaching
   convective complex will support downward momentum transfer of strong
   lower-tropospheric flow resulting in an heightened potential for
   significant severe thunderstorm wind swaths at the surface,
   potentially in excess of 70-80 mph. As such, an increase in
   significant wind potential is expected over the next few hours.

   ..Marsh.. 05/02/2018
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Those dual discrete supercells currently crossing the TX/OK border are certainly going to be worth watching... Per Mesonet/mesoanalysis surface winds across much of OK and Southern KS are already backed to the SSE. Which is significantly sooner than was progged...

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