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Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

weatherextreme

By weatherextreme,
in Central/Western States

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

I have noticed the height falls being depicted for tomorrow are not quite as robust as was being shown even a day or two ago. Looks neutral to only slightly negative. May make initiation a little harder.   

But at the same time, a lot of the concern regarding tomorrow is having things initiate too early before parameters become more favorable, so perhaps this isn't such a bad thing.

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted

Quick question: But does anyone know why NOAA, et. al only run all the HRW based CAMs at 12/00Z instead of all four runs. Having those four times a day (or even more maybe) would seem to be quite useful.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted
I have noticed the height falls being depicted for tomorrow across Oklahoma  are not quite as robust as were being shown even a day or two ago. Looks neutral to only slightly negative. May make initiation a little harder.   

If there’s initiation today, there will be tomorrow.

Today has less forcing, weaker UL flow and rising heights.

Tomorrow there’s more forcing, better UL flow and neutral heights.


.
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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Quick question: But does anyone know why NOAA, et. al only run all the HRW based CAMs at 12/00Z instead of all four runs. Having those four times a day (or even more maybe) would seem to be quite useful.

Because computational limits and $$$.

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Because computational limits and $$$.

Cash is king. Why our government practically refuses to give more money into such a vital sector as meteorology and climatology, I do not know. It is part of national defense. 

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Chreeyiss

Chreeyiss

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I am really kind of mystified by the lack of convection shown by the 3km NAM here (36 hours... prime time for tornadoes... no storms in Oklahoma). There's a pretty big signal for having relatively few storms in Oklahoma tomorrow. Seemed like a good setup for several hail/tornado events in SW Oklahoma.

JW2EksD.jpg

It seems like the NAM tends to underdo convective initiation along the dryline when the sever threat is conditional upon lift. In the days leading up to the last severe event we had here in NTX, the NAM showed no initiation south of the red river whatsoever, until storms were firing as far south as Mineral Wells. It may well be correct about tomorrow in OK, but it does seem to be pessimistic in areas farther away from the triple point.

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WhiteoutWX

WhiteoutWX

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, andyhb said:

But at the same time, a lot of the concern regarding tomorrow is having things initiate too early before parameters become more favorable, so perhaps this isn't such a bad thing.

Where is this idea coming from? Everything I’ve seen has early initiation up in Kansas but rather limited coverage in most of Oklahoma until closer to 0z. Always a balancing act between too much/too little forcing.

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Where is this idea coming from? Everything I’ve seen has early initiation up in Kansas but rather limited coverage in most of Oklahoma until closer to 0z. Always a balancing act between too much/too little forcing.

The most recent SPC D2.

Also I don't necessarily mean coverage, I mean duration of residence in the warm sector with adequate low level shear.

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WhiteoutWX

WhiteoutWX

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The most recent SPC D2.

Guess we will see. My bigger concern is still if we get initiation vs. too early. But just my opinion.

ETA: I’m specifically referring to Oklahoma, my chaseable area.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

ww0059_radar_big.gif

  

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 59
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   245 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Far southwest Iowa
     Central Kansas
     Southeast Nebraska

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to
       3.5 inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Several severe storms are expected to develop along the
   dryline and quasi-stationary front through this evening. Tornadoes,
   very large hail, and damaging winds are anticipated.
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bdgwx

bdgwx

Posted
Posted

15Z SREF rolling in. It's suggestive of a short period of tornadoey stuff near that MOD risk around KC close to or after sunset and that's about it for Wednesday. It's modestly bullish for the KS/MO border area on Thursday.

I thought the 12Z Euro was kinda of "meh" for both Wednesday and Thursday. The low level shear just doesn't look great in terms of magnitude prior to sunset on Wednesday and then it's veering to the east too much on Thursday.

Who knows...expectations seem low enough at this point that maybe either Wednesday or Thursday will overachieve.

 

 

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted

70/50 probs on the TOR watch encompassing the entire threat area. 70% honestly seems low since it encompasses the Triple point, areas north, and areas south along the dryline. Nitpicking though.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

And we begin 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
KSC051-195-012045-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0006.180501T1953Z-180501T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
253 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  East central Trego County in west central Kansas...
  Central Ellis County in central Kansas...

* Until 345 PM CDT

* At 253 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
  Cedar Bluff, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hays, Ellis, Catherine, Yocemento and Emmeram.

 
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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

15Z SREF rolling in. It's suggestive of a short period of tornadoey stuff near that MOD risk around KC close to or after sunset and that's about it for Wednesday. It's modestly bullish for the KS/MO border area on Thursday.

I thought the 12Z Euro was kinda of "meh" for both Wednesday and Thursday. The low level shear just doesn't look great in terms of magnitude prior to sunset on Wednesday and then it's veering to the east too much on Thursday.

Who knows...expectations seem low enough at this point that maybe either Wednesday or Thursday will overachieve.

Eh? There is widespread 25-35 kts of low level shear with areas of 35-40+ kts on the 12z Euro at 00z Thursday. Frankly that run spooks me closer to the I-35 corridor if something decides to track into central OK tomorrow, moreso than the 00z run.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

   Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms are expected over the central Great Plains to
   the Mid-Missouri Valley. The most likely corridor is across parts of
   central Kansas between 5 to 9 PM CDT. Tornadoes, a couple of which
   could be strong, very large hail, and damaging winds will be
   possible.

   ...Discussion...
   The only appreciable change from the previous outlook involved the
   inclusion of parts of northwest OK into the categorical 2 (Slight
   Risk).  Recent runs of the HRRR suggest convective initiation near
   the OK/TX border and subsequent supercell-like storms evolving from
   this simulated convection.
   ..Smith.. 05/01/2018

 

 
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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Sitting west of Great Bend.

Surface flow is great.


.

Indeed. Some obs stations indicating some surface backing already with flow really ripping along. Should be a fun next few hours. Good luck!!

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jojo762

jojo762

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

82/66 at SLN now. Those are more robust thermos than I was expected today tbh.

Meanwhile only 82/63 at KRSL (Russell)... Going to take a couple hours for storms to push into the better/deeper moisture. 

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