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May 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wonder what's been causing that persistent cold pool south of Greenland? Melting ice? 

Yeah, that's what the recent studies are focusing on. That cold-warm SST couplet became really pronounced after the record summer Arctic melt in 2012.

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold-warm North Atlantic SST differential is off the charts. The only thing preventing all out record warmth is the more -EPO.

 

globe_oisst_anom_current.thumb.png.bf895468ee33e4df2cedbc8e92b971cc.png

chart-composite.jpg.f29839fd1f9915cdb019e908cc868626.jpg

since we're in the era of repeating patterns i'm sure that ridge will eventually give us a week+ heat wave with dews over 75

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The cold-warm North Atlantic SST differential is off the charts. The only thing preventing all out record warmth is the -EPO and +PMM.

 

globe_oisst_anom_current.thumb.png.bf895468ee33e4df2cedbc8e92b971cc.png

chart-composite.jpg.f29839fd1f9915cdb019e908cc868626.jpg

This is pretty significant. I know there was a real Earth pattern change in 2013 and since then every Winter has been +NAO. High chance it's the same next year, it's a definite global pattern(dimension?) that is like "flat". Is arctic ice melt really this far along?
 

 

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27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is pretty significant. I know there was a real Earth pattern change in 2013 and since then every Winter has been +NAO. High chance it's the same next year, it's a definite global pattern(dimension?) that is like "flat". Is arctic ice melt really this far along?
 

 

The Atlantic reversal in 2013 was in sync with the historic +PDO  shift. Linkages between the Atlantic and Pacific would make an interesting study. The historic summer Arctic melt in 2012 was extreme.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/02/greenland-melting-2012-in-review/

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I'm not sure the decadal PDO is positive, it's shift to negative was pretty recently (1998), and most negative around 2012-2013.

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Atlantic reversal in 2013 was in sync with the historic +PDO  shift. Linkages between the Atlantic and Pacific would make an interesting study. The historic summer Arctic melt in 2012 was extreme.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/02/greenland-melting-2012-in-review/

It's a whole Hemisphere pattern change, although you don't see it over Asia which is weird. In an organic change, it would be everywhere. I think it's a "spill over" shift versus "something new", because actual change would be more convective-flare up everywhere. progression vs regression 

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11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

This horrible weather just won't end.  46 and rain.  It's May 19th and the heat tried coming on...

got the gas fireplace going here.   Tomorrow looks better-near 80 and mainly dry outside of some scattered activity late day

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