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May 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Another wild temperature swing, 59F after 90F yesterday.

I can't recall the last spring we've had that many huge temperature swings.

The WAR and -EPO have been in a epic battle since September. Neither feature can completely dominate so we get these big temperature swings.

IMG_0143.GIF.ac56d4e70481f015d0e2077192d5a507.GIF

 

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Next 8 days averaging 67degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is    +5.8.   Should be    +3.9 by the 27th.

Both GFS/CMC/EURO have weak tropical system near FL in 10 days.  GFS has been playing with it for a week, it develops later,  but still could reach us before month ends.  Ironically could make for better Holiday weather shown on GFS, prior to its arrival.

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 591 dam WAR would have been easy 90's both days this weekend  in a drier pattern without the -EPO high pressure to the north. Maybe the warmer spots can top 85 on Sunday with enough sunshine.

ecmwf_z500a_noram_11.thumb.png.e61816dcebc46636a970158a4c15fab7.png

 

 

The Euro is wet for Sunday.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 591 dam WAR would have been easy 90's both days this weekend  in a drier pattern without the -EPO high pressure to the north. Maybe the warmer spots can top 85 on Sunday with enough sunshine.

ecmwf_z500a_noram_11.thumb.png.e61816dcebc46636a970158a4c15fab7.png

 

 

that pattern later in the season would be a dewpoint special

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was thinking the same thing. Hello 75-80 degree dewpoints at JFK.

With the potential for severe with the fast flow north of the border.  Wouldn’t take much of a shortwave to dig.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Saw that, but the big rains look well south on the euro and other models (GFS furthest north)  Guessing the flood watches for alot of NJ will be canned soon.   

New run of the NAM isn't even a half inch of rain for friday night into saturday for the NYC area. Yeah the big rain threat is really falling apart.

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17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

New run of the NAM isn't even a half inch of rain for friday night into saturday for the NYC area. Yeah the big rain threat is really falling apart.

I'm thinking most of the flood watches are dropped soon. Big rains are south and West of PHL

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Next 8 days averaging 68degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is   +5.5.   Should be   +4.1 by the 28th.

That tropical system near Fl. is coming sooner again, as indicated a week ago.  Our Holiday weekend could be affected with clouds and a rainy Memorial Day itself.

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Our big temperature swing this month was the front-loaded warmth during the first week followed by the big drop after. So far, Newark has the earliest May maximum temperature of 94 degrees on May 3rd. May 1-7 finished as the 2nd warmest on record at 70.1 degrees and +11.3. May 8-17 has had a departure of only +1.4 with a 62.8 average temperature.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Our big temperature swing this month was the front-loaded warmth during the first week followed by the big drop after. So far, Newark has the earliest May maximum temperature of 94 degrees on May 3rd. May 1-7 finished as the 2nd warmest on record at 70.1 degrees and +11.3. May 8-17 has had a departure of only +1.4 with a 62.8 average temperature.

Very bad allergy season

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 68degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is   +5.5.   Should be   +4.1 by the 28th.

That tropical system near Fl. is coming sooner again, as indicated a week ago.  Our Holiday weekend could be affected with clouds and a rainy Memorial Day itself.

The trough picks up the tropical system and slings it up this way with alot of rain near memorial day weekend.

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