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May 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The -EPO continues to exceed model expectations. So we get stronger high pressure over Canada with backdoors and stalled warm fronts. The record warmth snuck in during the first week of May on the brief +EPO.

 

eps_epo_bias.thumb.png.e4241444d5ca13252d969d5dd0bccc5d.png

 

And we are usually on the cool side of stalled fronts. Unfortunately. 

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7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

And we are usually on the cool side of stalled fronts. Unfortunately. 

The 12z Euro focuses quite a bit of rainfall along the stalled out warm front over the next 10 days. It really wants to continue the wet pattern that began in February.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z Euro focuses quite a bit of rainfall along the stalled out warm front over the next 10 days. It really wants to continue the wet pattern that began in February.

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day to see how far the front makes it south, looks like the best severe weather threat is just off to our south with a slight/enhanced risk for those areas but as Forky and Rjay mentioned in the other thread there will still be elevated instability and a heavy rain threat.

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Temps have consistently beat guidance this spring, up to 71 now, forecast was 66. I expect that to continue moving forward

Not if an onshore flow and persistent easterly flows occurs, that's pretty much the only way we keep our temps at or below forecast this time of year.

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Next 8 days average back down to 65degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is   +8.7.   Should be  +5.9 by the 20th.

Next 9 days or so look to have more cloud cover than sun, 2" PW all the way through and maybe 2"-6" of  actual precipitation if we get enough lifting.   2M T's probably retarded by all this cloudiness too.

 

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Going to be interesting to see how far north the warm front makes it today. Mt.Holly NWS says the battle zone looks to be anywhere between I-76 to I-78 but I don't think the front will make it to much further north then the Monmouth/Mercer county line. Heavy rain and storms are still a threat though north of the front just not the severe weather like in areas to the south.

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20 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

46 degrees and rain at 8:00 am. Progged high is now 57. 54 tomorrow. 

Except for southern parts of the area highs are technically already been set at midnight. Feels kinda cold now that i've gotten acclimated to sunny days well in the 70s.  These days come to remind us this is not San Diego. Down to 53 now. Technically I got to 64.

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18 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day to see how far the front makes it south, looks like the best severe weather threat is just off to our south with a slight/enhanced risk for those areas but as Forky and Rjay mentioned in the other thread there will still be elevated instability and a heavy rain threat.

The Euro has numerous days with at least some measurable rainfall over the next week to 10 days.

KEWR_2018051200_dx_240.thumb.png.d2d5c3adf47d82f571f6c852eb765026.png

 

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NYC has a shot at a  top ten coldest maximum temperature in the 50's today. It's interesting that the same thing happened on this date in 2017 and 2013.

Coldest high temperatures at NYC for May 13th

#1......49....1914

#5......53.....2017

#10....58.....2013

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On 5/11/2018 at 11:49 AM, bluewave said:

The -EPO continues to exceed model expectations. So we get stronger high pressure over Canada with backdoors and stalled warm fronts. The record warmth snuck in during the first week of May on the brief +EPO.

 

It's racing towards ever-present. The big thing is when 590dm ridge in February broke old record of 581dm and there was +heights in the west arctic, -EPO. I think that means it's there to stay. 

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC has a shot at a  top ten coldest maximum temperature in the 50's today. It's interesting that the same thing happened on this date in 2017 and 2013.

Coldest high temperatures at NYC for May 13th

#1......49....1949

#5......53.....2017

#10....58.....2013

49 is the record but it was set in 1914...

5/13... 49 in 1914... 50 in 1931... 51 in 1882
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1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It's racing towards ever-present. The big thing is when 590dm ridge in February broke old record of 581dm and there was +heights in the west arctic, -EPO. I think that means it's there to stay. 

Unprecedented levels of blocking around Alaska and the Bering Sea since 2013.

IMG_0136.PNG.4c103e7d62122cb517726fbae1911d63.PNG

 

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28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Clouds looked mostly locked in again today.  Suspect if we can clear for any sustained period on Tue or Wed we can potentially see another shot at 90 in the warmer spots.  Crapola weekend.

A lot of cloud debris will hold temps back but it'll definitely feel like 90 with increasing humidity and dews.

Very active week, I think some place could easily see 6-8" or more by next weekend.

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