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Roger Smith

May 2018 temperature forecast contest, Regional Rumble, and annual max temp contest

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The usual monthly temperature forecast contest (and continuation of the now very close Regional Rumble) will be accompanied this month by the annual max contest. We have had this added bonus contest each of the past three years and most of our regulars have entered it -- see rules below.

For the temperature forecast contest, it's the usual challenge to predict the anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 "normals" for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

For the annual maximum contest, it's simply based on the 2018 maximum for each of those same locations, with the season being all year rather than the summer months alone, as the max can happen in May or September. So add on those forecasts to your May anomaly predictions. 

Deadline for the main temperature contest is 06z May 1st with 1% penalties from then on every four hours to 18z May 2nd and 1% per hour late after that. 

There won't be a late penalty applied to the seasonal max portion, if you happen to forget and then edit them in before May 10th or so when I make up a table of entries for the seasonal max, that will be fine, and it gives me a few days to send reminders. And if anyone just wants to enter this seasonal max contest alone, that will be fine too. 

Good luck !!!

(April provisional scoring available, everything is tightening up in all contests ... and the snowfall contest is pretty much done now, as DEN is still way below even our minimum forecast and it's unlikely to snow (much) at the other locations -- that contest is updated when necessary back in the February thread but I will move the likely results to this thread around May 8th or so -- technically the contest runs to June 30th). 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0     0.5     0.5         0.5      1.5     1.0       1.0      1.5     0.5

 

103    100    97        98        101     107       98       114    96

 

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DCA +2.2     

 

NYC +2.8

BOS +1.7

ORD +2.2

ATL +0.5

IAH 0.3

DEN +0.8

PHX +0.8

SEA -0.3

NYC

 

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 99°
NYC: 96°
BOS: 95°
ORD: 98°
ATL: 94°
IAH: 98°
DEN: 98°
PHX: 116
SEA: 91°

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.0    3.1      2.7         2.8      0.8     0.3        1.0      0.8     1.6

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 99°
NYC: 98°
BOS: 97°
ORD: 95°
ATL: 96°
IAH: 101°
DEN: 100°
PHX: 116°
SEA: 88°

NYC Metro subforum

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DCA +1.6 102

NYC +1.0 99

BOS +0.2 96

ORD +1.3 100

ATL +2.0 97

IAH +0.3 102

DEN -0.9 96

PHX -0.3 118

SEA -1.0 90

Mid Atlantic subforum 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5     1.1      1.5       -0.3     0.0    0.7        2.0      2.4     2.6

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 97°
NYC: 96°
BOS: 95°
ORD: 94°
ATL: 96°
IAH: 101°
DEN: 100°
PHX: 117°
SEA: 89°

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DCA +2.1        98

NYC +2.3        99

BOS +1.1        97

ORD +1.9       97

ATL +2.3        99

IAH +0.9        98

DEN -0.4        97

PHX +0.7      121

SEA -0.3      93

TV

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DCA: +2.5 102

NYC: +2.1 99

BOS: +2.2  98

ORD: +1.1  101

ATL: +1.1 103

IAH: +0.8 103

DEN: +0.8 98

PHX: +0.9 119

SEA: -0.8  94

 

Philly

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Table of forecasts May 2018

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

afewUniverses bn __MA __________ +4.0 _+3.5 _+3.2 ___ +2.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _--0.5

Roger Smith ___ C + W___________+3.6 _+3.4 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.8 ___ +2.0 _+2.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________+3.0 _+3.1 _+2.7 ___ +2.8 _+0.8 _+0.3 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.6

Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.1 _+0.8 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _--0.8

wxallannj _____ NYC _____________+2.2 _+2.8 _+1.7 ___ +2.2 _+0.5 _+0.3 ___ +0.8 _+0.8 _--0.3

jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ +2.1 _+2.3 _+1.1 ___ +1.9 _+2.3 _+0.9 ___ --0.4 _+0.7 _--0.3

wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____+2.1 _+1.6 _+2.3 ___ +0.9 _+0.8 _+1.1 ___ +0.3 _--0.2 _--0.3

Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____+2.1 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___ +0.8 _+2.6 _+0.9 ___ --0.3 _+2.0 _+0.2

BKViking ______ NYC ____________ +2.0 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ +1.0 _+2.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.3

 

___ Consensus __________________+2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.6 _+0.9 ___ +0.8 _+1.0 __0.0

 

Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.5 _+2.2 _+0.5 ___ --1.1 _--1.1 _--2.0

so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +1.8 _+1.7 _+2.2 ___ +1.4 _+2.3 _--0.5

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________+1.6 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.9 _+2.1 _+0.1

mappy _________ MA ____________+1.6 _+1.0 _+0.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+0.3 ___ --0.9 _--0.3 _--1.0

RJay __________ NYC ____________+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.5 __0.0

RodneyS ________ MA ___________ +1.5 _+1.1 _+1.5 ___ --0.3 __0.0 _+0.7 ___ +2.0 _+2.4 _+2.6

dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

 

Normal _________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

________________________________________________________________________________________

** 17 forecasters, consensus is median (9th ranked forecast) **

color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, where Normal is bold, it is colder than lowest forecast or tied.

A table of entries for the Seasonal max contest will be posted around May 11th, you have until end of 10th to edit or post those.

Good luck (nice to see only very small late penalties all round this month)

April results are posted ... Regional Rumble is very close. 

______ ____ ___ __ _ *** *** _ __ ___ ____ ______

Snowfall contest results are probably final now since all entrants have at least 14" left for DEN before increasing errors, will be moving that table from the

February thread to this one soon. 

 

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Was that for changes or the max temps? Normally for intended edits I allow them if a moderator can verify and you're a moderator so ... I trust you (thanks for pinning the thread by the way).

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First report on May anomalies with projections ... 

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7

 

_8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0 _ +0.5 _+4.0

 

_8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0

________________________________________________________________

There is little sign of any further snowfall at DEN so with all forecasters holding at least 14" in reserve there,

contest outcome is likely sealed. I will check the tables back in the February thread and move the final results

here in a day or two. DonSutherland.1 is leading with hudsonvalley21 in second place. 

A reminder, anyone who did not give seasonal max predictions has until end of 10th to edit them in or post, 

then a table of seasonal max forecasts will appear. 

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We are good to go with the seasonal max contest, I think all the regular contest entrants have placed their markers so here's a table of forecasts ... in order of DCA forecast then where tied, NYC etc until the ties are broken ... and consensus will be our average rather than the median. 

Note (15th) will be adding actual values as we get into June, but SEA has already hit 88 (our minimum forecast) as of May 14th. 

 

Seasonal Max 2018 contest

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

Scotty Lightning ____________103 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96

RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95

Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94

mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90

wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95

dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98

 

___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93

 

Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107122 __ 93

Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88

BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91

wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91

jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93

RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89

Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 

Near-final report on snowfall contest

The following tables are moved over from the February thread where they have been updated. DEN seems unlikely to see much if any snow in the next two weeks and since all forecasters have plenty left to give in terms of DEN error, we can probably assume these results are final even if we have to add small amounts to DEN totals and remove similar amounts of error from each forecaster. I will maintain a watch on this to June 30th just in case. But for now, it is congrats to DonSutherland.1 and hudsonvalley21 for leading the way in our snowfall contest. Glad we added DTW, BUF and BTV to the locations although ATL and IAH actually had more snow this past winter than in any of the contest years when they were included. 

Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts

... this will continue to be updated to end of contest in this location ...

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total _____ dep

 

so_whats_happening___ 22.0 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 ___ 438.0 ___ 122.2

Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 ___ 533.3 ___ 129.1

Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0___ 460.0 ___ 128.2

dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.070.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 ___ 528.0 ___ 112.0

wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 ___ 482.3 ___ 148.3

hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 ___ 466.5 ____ 98.5

DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 ___ 478.3 ____ 81.7

H2OTown_WX ________ 14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ 368.4 ___ 130.4

 

___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0___459.0___103.0

 

Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 ___ 398.5 ___ 130.7

wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0  ___340.3 ___ 203.5

BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0___511.0 ___ 117.0

RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _105.0 ___536.0 ___ 113.4

Scotty Lightning (SD) ___10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 ___ 486.0 ___ 123.2

RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 ___ 384.4 ___ 155.0

SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0 _ 75.0 ___ 367.0 ___ 187.8

 

Table of departures (errors) 

Numbers in red show forecasts already passed by actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to increases.

Numbers in black show forecasts still below actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to decreases.

 

Rank _FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total dep

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 ______ 07.3 _ 06.6 _ 06.5 __ 12.8 _ 06.8 _ 00.3 __ 30.1 _ 03.3 _ 08.0 ____ 81.7

 2 hudsonvalley21________07.7 _ 01.1 _ 02.9 __ 10.9 _ 10.0 _ 21.3 __ 38.3 _ 06.0 _ 00.3 ____ 98.5

( 3) __ Consensus _____06.6 _07.2 _06.5 __12.8 _10.0_16.5__30.1_06.0 _07.3 ___103.0

 3 dmillz25 _____________09.2 _ 00.1 _ 02.9 __ 30.9_ 09.0 07.3 __ 34.3 _ 11.0 _ 07.3 ___ 112.0

 4 RJay ________________02.2 _ 00.9 _ 10.1 __ 13.9 _ 06.0 _07.7 __ 54.3 _ 02.0 _ 16.3 ___ 113.4

 5 BKViking _____________03.2 _ 07.9 _ 10.1 __03.9 _ 11.0 _ 02.3 __ 51.3 _ 06.0 _ 21.3___ 117.0 

 6 so_whats_happening___14.2 02.9 _ 03.1 __ 05.1 _ 25.0 _ 27.3 __ 27.3 _ 10.0 _ 07.3 ___ 122.2

 7 Scotty Lightning (SD) __ 02.2 _ 17.9 _ 14.9 __ 18.9 _ 06.0 _ 02.3 __ 59.300.0 _ 01.7 ___ 123.2

 8 Roger Smith _________ 11.7 _ 00.9 _ 00.1 __ 03.1 _ 16.0 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 13.5 _ 21.3___ 128.2

 9 Tom _______________ 11.8 _ 02.9 _ 03.2 __ 23.3 _ 07.6 _ 08.5 __ 45.8 _ 05.4 _ 20.6 ___ 129.1

10 H2OTown_WX ________06.6 _ 17.7 _ 18.7 __ 08.3 _ 22.3 _ 18.9 __ 14.9 _ 01.4 _ 21.6 ___ 130.4

11 Stebo _______________04.7 _ 07.2 _ 09.9 __ 13.9 _ 03.7 _ 47.3 __ 24.8 _ 03.0 _ 16.2 ___ 130.7

12 wxdude64____________08.5 _ 13.2 22.4 __ 18.7 _ 05.5 _ 10.1 __ 51.9 _ 07.2 _ 10.8 ___ 148.3

13 RodneyS ____________ 00.3 _ 15.9 24.1 __ 16.3 _ 15.3 _ 16.5 __ 26.4 _ 08.5 _ 31.7 ___ 155.0

14 SnoSki14 ____________05.8 35.9 _ 24.9 __ 03.9 _ 16.0 _ 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 26.0 _ 13.7 ___ 187.8

15 wxallannj ___________  04.5 _ 13.9 _ 26.9 __ 01.9 _ 18.0 _ 59.3 __ 32.3 _ 15.0 _ 31.7  ___203.5

 

Amounts to date _______ 7.8 _40.9 _59.9 __36.1 _61.0_112.3__25.7 _4.0 _ 88.7 __ 436.4

NOTE: Unless more than 15" more snow falls at DEN or any snow falls elsewhere, these standings can be considered final.

______________________________________________________________________

15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked).

Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold.

Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics.

Forecasts passed by totals to date are in red. 

______________________________________________________________________________

CLOSEST FORECASTS (to date) ___________ CLOSEST TOTAL SNOWFALL (current 436.4")

DCA _ RodneyS (+0.3) ___________________ 1. so_whats_happening _____ +1.6"

NYC _ dmillz25 (+0.1) ___________________ (2) Consensus ____________+22.6"

BOS _ Roger Smith (+0.1) ________________ 2. Roger Smith ___________ +23.6"

ORD _ wxallannj (+1.9) __________________ 3. hudsonvalley21 _________+30.1"

DTW _ Stebo (-3.7) ______________________4.  Stebo ________________--37.9"

BUF _ DonSutherland.1 (+0.3) _____________5. DonSutherland.1 ________+41.9"

DEN _ H2OTown_Wx (+14.9) _____________ 6. wxdude64 ______________+45.9"

SEA _ Scotty Lightning (0.0) ______________ 7. Scotty Lightning__________+49.6"

BTV _ Scotty Lightning (-1.7) ______________8. RodneyS _______________--52.0"

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Update on the anomaly tracker ... seasonal max contest table of entries posted so the first edition of this is back in the thread, and have added the presumed final report on snowfall contest to that post.

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ notes 

 

_8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7

15th ______ (14 d) ______ +7.9_ +5.9 _ +4.8 ___ +6.6 _+5.5_ +3.0 ___ +4.5_ +2.6 _+6.8 ___ ** compares to ** below

22nd ______ (21 d) ______ +6.7_ +4.3 _ +4.2 ___ +4.1 _+5.1_ +3.3 ___ +3.1_ +2.1 _+5.9 ___ ## compares to ## below

25th ______ (24d) _______ +6.6_ +4.3 _ +4.1 ___ +4.2 _+5.1_ +2.8 ___ +3.5_ +1.8 _+6.1 ___ !!! compares to !!! below (16d)

29th ______ (28d) _______ +6.4_ +4.5 _ +3.9 ___ +6.3 _+4.9_ +2.7 ___ +4.3_ +1.3 _+5.7 ___ ^^ compares to ^^ below

 

_8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0_ +0.5 _+4.0 ___ ** actuals above at **

15th _____( p21st NWS) __+6.6_ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.2 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +4.0_ +2.5 _+5.7 ___ ## actuals above at ##

22nd_____( p28th NWS) __+6.0_ +4.4 _ +4.0 ___ +4.5 _+4.5_ +3.7 ___ +3.5_ +1.8 _+4.7 ___ ^^ actuals above at ^^

 

_8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5_ +1.0 _+2.0 ___ !!! actuals above at !!!

15th _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0_ +2.0 _+4.0

22nd _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+4.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0_ +2.0 _+4.0

25th _____ (p31st NWS) __ +5.6_ +4.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _+4.5_ +3.5 ___ +4.0_ +2.0 _+5.0

29th _____ (p31st NWS) __ +5.8_ +4.0 _ +4.0 ___ +6.5 _+4.5_ +3.0 ___ +4.0_ +1.5 _+5.0

Actual May anomalies _____+6.4_+4.5 _+4.2 ___+7.0 _+4.7_+2.9 ___+4.3_+1.4 _+5.0

____________________________________________

15th _ The past week forecasts proved a little warm for parts of the northeast and Great Lakes as it actually turned very cool for two days, while for SEA the opposite occurred, warmth was predicted but record heat developed in the past two days, and combined that likely accounts for the larger errors but overall the accuracy of NWS estimates was fairly good at other locations, the overall average error was 1.34 deg. (0.5 for the best five). My longer term estimates (bottom row) take the p21d NWS values and assume half-strength continued warming at most locations since the patterns don't appear to change very much, continued similar for southeast to Gulf, so I feel that these end of month estimates are more likely to err on the conservative side. As all nine are still warmer than almost all forecasts, could be a green light for early provisional scoring.  

22nd _ This past week, NWS forecasts averaged an excellent 0.43 deg average error. The end of month projections all remain the same except for ATL which now appears closer to our forecast range so that gives all forecasters a boost of about 20 points.

25th _ We now have provisionals all based on seven-day NWS forecasts. Some of those are a bit higher than previous, and the few BOS cases of higher forecasts than provisionals are now eliminated (for the time being). A few remain at PHX which did not change. Some boosted scoring situations are developing but I will leave that for the final analysis, it won't make much difference to differentials. The estimates made on the 8th can be directly compared to today's updated anomalies. The average error was only 1.1 deg and half of that was due to a large error for SEA, so the GFS was doing a good job (the NWS portion can be assumed to be small). 

29th _ There was once again excellent agreement between 7d NWS forecasts and actual values, average error only 0.68 deg. ORD ran warmer as temperatures soared to record values, 97 is the seasonal MAX already for ORD. ... Provisionals are adjusted slightly in some cases. Except for PHX they remain warmer than all forecasts.

June 1st _ Actual anomalies were being posted as they were reported, all in now and the values in bold type are confirmed. Scoring has been updated. 

________________________________________________________________

 

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Final scoring for May 2018

Since late penalties are small (1-2 pts) I have just incorporated them directly into the scoring for May. The station scores are now post-penalty and the various subtotals and grand totals from those subtotals are also post-penalty (the raw scores are reduced by one to three shown by *, ** or ***). Some were too low to get any reduction. 

ORD, DEN and SEA scores are now boosted as the max raw scores remain under 60. The progression used is 60, 55, 50, 45, 40, 36, 32, 28, 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 09, 06, 04, 02. If your raw score is higher than your progression score, you get the higher raw score. Boosted scores are indicated with a ^ symbol (where reduced by late penalty, only the late penalty * code appears, check lower scores to see if you were boosted). Most raw scores for ORD and DEN were higher than the progression, while the scoring for SEA was generally boosted as a result.

 

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA___west___ TOTALS

 

Roger Smith ___ C + W__________ 58 _ 78 _ 96___ 232 ___ 55^_ 56 _ 98 ___ 209 __441__60^_82 _ 50^__ 192 ___ 633

afewUniverses bn __MA __________66 _ 80 _ 80 ___ 226 ___ 45^_ 66 _ 92 ___ 203 __ 429 __60^_88 _ 12^__ 160 ___ 589

DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________46 _ 72 _ 70 ___ 188 ___ 60^_ 22 _ 48 ___ 130 __ 318 __40^_88 _ 55^__ 183 ___ 501

BKViking ______ NYC ____________ 26 _ 54 _ 52 ___ 132 ___ 20 __50 _ 62 ___ 132 __ 264 __ 40^_88 _ 45^__ 173 ___ 437

so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_22 _53*_47*___ 122 ___ 35*_ 39*_ 84**__158 __ 280 __44*_80**_ 12^__136 ___ 416

wxallannj _______ NYC ___________30 _ 66 _ 50 ___ 146 ___ 50^_ 16 _ 48 ___ 114 __ 260 __30 _ 88 _ 21^__ 139 ___ 399

jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ 28 _ 56 _ 38 ___ 122 ___ 40^_ 52 _ 60 ___ 152 __ 274 __12^_ 86 _ 21^__ 119 ___ 393

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________18 _ 46 _ 40 ___ 104 ___ 22 _ 38 _ 80 ___ 140 __ 244 __ 32 _ 86 _ 28^ __ 146 ___ 390

 

___ Consensus __________________26 _ 46 _ 46 ___ 118 ___ 26 _ 38 _ 60 ___ 124 __ 242 __ 30 _ 92 _ 24^__ 146 ___ 388

 

Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____35*_51*_59*___ 145 ___ 22 _ 27*_57*___ 106 __ 251 __29*_88**_06^__ 123 ___ 374

Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____27*_39*_41*___ 107 ___ 16 _56** 58**__ 130 __ 237 __15 _85***_31*__ 131 ___ 368

RodneyS ________ MA ___________ 16 _ 32 _ 46 ___ 094 ___ 02^_06 _ 56 ___ 064 __ 158 __60^_80 _60^__200 ___ 358 

dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________10 _ 20 _ 26 ___ 056 ___ 32^_ 36 _ 92 ___ 160 __ 216 __04^_92 _ 40^__ 136 ___ 352

wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____28 _ 42 _ 61*___ 131 ___ 18 _ 22 _ 63*___ 103 __ 234 __21^_ 67*_ 21^__109 ___ 343

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________10 _ 20 _ 26 ___ 056 ___ 10 _ 36 _ 62 ___ 108 __ 164 __40^_ 98_ 36^__ 174 ___ 338

RJay __________ NYC ____________16 _ 40 _ 36 ___ 092 ___ 10 _ 16 _ 42 ___ 068 __ 160 __09^_ 98_ 24^__ 131 ___ 291

Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________26 _ 40 _ 30 ___ 096 ___ 32^_ 50 _ 52 ___ 134 __ 230 __02^_50 _ 02^__ 054 ___ 284

mappy _________ MA ____________18 _ 30 _ 20 ___ 068 ___ 26 _ 46 _ 48 ___ 120 __ 188 __ 06^_66 _ 04^__ 076 ___ 264

 

Normal ________________________ 00 _ 10 _ 16 ___ 026 ___ 04^_ 06 _ 42 ___ 052 __ 078 __20^_72_ 24^__ 116 ___ 194

 

Regional Rumble Final Scoring

Region _________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTALS

Central + Western __232 _________ 209 ________ 192 ________ 633

Mid-Atlantic _______ 226 _________ 203 ________ 200 ________ 629

New York City _____ 188 _________ 160 ________ 183 ________ 531

Philadelphia _______ 145 _________ 108 ________ 174 ________ 427

PA/NY ____________122 _________ 158 ________ 136 ________ 416

TN Valley _________ 122 _________ 152 ________ 119 ________ 393

___ Consensus _____118 _________ 124 ________ 146 ________ 388

Southeast _________ 107 _________130 ________ 131 ________ 368

Great Lakes / OV ___ 096 _________ 134 ________ 054 ________ 284

Normal ___________ 026 _________ 052 ________ 116 ________ 194

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

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--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - May 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

MAY now based on final scoring ... best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year.

... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________302 _294 _312 ____908 ____ 242 _316 _144 ____ 702 ___ 1610 __2*2*2 03*1 .2.1 __ MAY

so_whats_happening _165 _219 _287 ____ 671 ____ 243 _276 _231 ____ 750___ 1421 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

hudsonvalley21 _____ 229 _250 _248 ____ 727 ____ 143 _269 _275 ____ 687 ___ 1414 ___

wxdude64 _________ 269 _260 _306 ____ 835 ____ 186 _233 _154 ____ 573 ___ 1408 ___ 110 000 .1.0

DonSutherland.1 ___  236 _242 _268 ____ 746 ____ 189 _268 _191 ____ 648 ___ 1394 ___ 000.100 .0.0

jaxjagman _________ 220 _210 _282 ____ 712 ____ 164 _270 _208 ____ 642 ___ 1354 ___ 001 000 .0.0

 

___Normal _________234 _217 _285 ____ 736 ____ 246 _221 _119 ____ 586 ___ 1322 ___ 000 101 .0.0

Scotty Lightning (SD) _217 _207 _292 ____ 716 ____ 227 _203 _149 ____ 579 ___ 1295 ___ 000 100 .0.1

___Consensus ______ 207 _217 _262 ____ 686 ____ 163 _248 _187 ____ 598 ___ 1284 ___

 

RJay ______________182 _242 _267 ____ 691 ____ 117 _252 _221 ____ 590 ___ 1281 ___ 011 001 .1.0 __ APR

BKViking ___________217 _245 _270 ____ 732 ____ 127 _221 _195 ____ 543 ___ 1275 ___

wxallannj __________ 202 _242 _252 ____ 696 ____ 170 _204 _197 ____ 571 ___ 1267 ___ 000 001

Stebo _____________ 182 _192 _244 ____ 618 ____ 177 _248 _222 ____ 647 ___ 1265 ___ 000 001 .0.0

RodneyS ___________212 _206 _230 ____ 648 ____ 173 _230 _166 ____ 569 ___ 1217 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR

mappy ____________ 170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Tom ______________ 193 _213 _259 ____ 665 ____ 125 _247 _135 ____ 507 ___ 1172 ___

dmillz25 ___________ 177 _147 _180 ____ 504 ____ 184 _224 _204 ____ 612 ___ 1116 ___ 000 010 .0.0

Orangeburgwx _(4/5)_087 _147 _183 ____ 417 ____ 105 _078 _162 ____ 345 ____ 762 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

Mercurial (2/5) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/5)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/4) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (1)_066 _080 _080 ____ 226 ____ 045 _066 _092 ____ 203 ____ 429 ___ 110 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/5) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: all shown (2/5) missed March to May, Orangeburgwx (4/5) missed January and H2OTown_wx (3/5) missed April, May.

 

Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 262 _ 326 _ 346 _____ 934 __________ 0 1 2 __ Apr ______ 2229 (= 2)

BKViking _______________224 _ 304 _ 309 _____ 837 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2112 (= 6)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 252 _ 272 _ 275 _____ 799 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______2193 (= 4)

RodneyS_______________ 236 _ 332 _ 228 _____ 796 __________ 1 1 1 __May _______2013 (=10) __ MAR, APR

__Normal ______________236 _ 250 _ 294 _____ 780 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 2102 (= 8) __ FEB

Tom __________________ 247 _ 280 _ 248 _____ 775 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1947 (=12)

so_whats_happening _____226 _ 307 _ 239 _____ 772 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2193 (= 3) __ FEB

__ Consensus __________ 216 _ 290 _ 266 _____ 772 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2056 (= 8)

Roger Smith ____________240 _ 268 _ 262 _____ 770 __________ 2 0 0 __ Jan _______2380 (= 1) __ MAY

wxallannj ______________ 208 _ 308 _ 245 _____ 761 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______2028 (= 9)

hudsonvalley21 _________ 220 _ 251 _ 281 _____ 752 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2166 (= 5)

RJay __________________177 _ 256 _ 272 _____ 705 __________ 1 1 0 _____________ 1986 (=11)

wxdude64 _____________ 215 _ 238 _ 242 _____ 695 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2103 (= 7)

Orangeburgwx (4/5)______214 _ 247 _ 228 _____ 689 __________ 1 2 1 __ Feb _______ 1451 (=16)

jaxjagman _____________ 172 _ 260 _ 257 _____ 689 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2043 (= 8)

dmillz25 _______________ 165 _ 269 _ 222 _____ 656 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1772 (=14)

Stebo _________________ 122 _ 214 _ 194 _____ 530 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1795 (=13)

mappy _________________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 1722 (=15)

H2OTown__WX (3/5) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18)

Mercurial __ (2/5) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/5) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/5) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

afewUniv bn (1 mo May) __ 060 _ 088 _ 012 _____ 160 __________ 1 0 0 _____________ 589 (=20)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-May) 

 

Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS 

 

Mid Atlantic _______________1044 _____ 860 _____ 873 ________2777

Central + Western _________ 1062 _____ 841 _____ 816 ________2719

NYC ______________________913 _____ 800 _____ 981 ________2692

PHL ______________________925 _____ 635 _____ 960 ________2520

PA / NY ___________________671 _____ 750 _____ 772 ________2193

___Normal ________________ 736 _____ 586 _____ 780 ________2102

TN Valley _________________ 760 _____ 642 _____ 699 ________2101

___ Consensus _____________686 _____ 598 _____ 772 ________2056

Southeast _________________ 581 _____ 491 _____ 811 ________1883

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 618 _____ 647 _____ 530 ________1795

New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979

 

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Extreme Forecast Update

This was a great month for new (to here) forecaster "AfewUniversesbelownormal" who captured five. Regulars who were second in those will earn a win if "AfewUbn" racks up fewer than five months by end of year, so for now any second awards will be marked with asterisks and withdrawn if or when he reaches five. 

DCA _ Final +6.4, win for "afewU b n" at +4.0 and depending on future entries for "afewU b n" also a win for Roger Smith at +3.6. 

NYC _ Final +4.5, win for "afewU b n" at +3.5 and (see above) Roger Smith at +3.4.

BOS _ Final +4.2, a win for Roger Smith at +4.0. 

ORD _ Final +7.0, a win for DonSutherland.1 at +2.8. 

ATL _ Final +4.7, a win for "a few U b n" at +3.0 and tied scores of Orangeburgwx +2.6 (-2 late) and Roger Smith at +2.5

IAH _ Final +2.9, a win for Roger Smith at +2.8. 

DEN _ Final +4.3,  a win for three tied at +2.0 (A few U bn, Roger Smith, RodneyS) ... the tie means no second award situation.

SEA _ Final +5.0, a win for RodneyS at +2.6

(PHX at +1.4 will not qualify). 

Extreme Forecasts wins and losses

In this table, secondary wins where "a few Universes below normal" had a win in May are marked by # symbols, and will be withdrawn if "a few Univ bn" enters a total of five contests in 2018. For DEN, two regulars tied with "a few Univ bn" and those will be retained in any case. 

 

Roger Smith __________11###-0 (can fall to 8-0 see above)

RodneyS _____________ 6-1

AfewUniversesbelown.. __4-0

__ Normal ____________ 4-1

Orangeburgwx ________ 4#-0* (can fall to 3-0 see above)

wxallannj _____________3-0

RJay ________________ 3-1

so_whats_happening ___ 2-0

wxdude64 ____________ 2-0

DonSutherland1 ________2-0

Mercurial _____________ 1-0

NRG Jeff ______________1-0

Stebo ________________ 1-0

H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1

Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1

cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0

* no decision (Mar for IAH)

 

 

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Four seasons contest update

 

SPRING 2018 (March, April, May)

____________________ score ______________ score _______________ score (totals)

FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points ___  (western) __ Points ____ (all nine) __ Points

RodneyS _____________ 991 ____7 __________ 678 _____ 10________ 1669 _____10

Roger Smith _________ 1110 ___ 10 __________532 ______ --________ 1642 _____ 7

wxdude64 ___________ 942 ____ 6 ___________541 ______ --________1483 _____ 6

Tom ________________904 ____ 5 ___________553 ______ 1 ________1457 _____ 5

Don Sutherland.1 _____ 875 ____ 4 ___________579 ______ 4 ________1454 _____ 4

wxallannj ____________805 ____ 1 ___________621 ______ 5 ________1426 _____ 3

BKViking ____________ 764 ____ -- __________ 650 ______ 7 ________1414 _____ 2

___ Consensus _______ 807 ___ 1 ___________ 588 ______ 4 ________ 1395 _____ 1

RJay ________________827 ___ 1 ___________ 565 ______ 2 ________ 1392 _____ 1

jaxjagman ___________ 866 ___ 3 ___________ 507 ______ -- _______ 1373 _____ 1

hudsonvalley21 _______ 801 ___ 1 ___________ 560 ______ 1 ________1361 _____ 1

so_whats_happening __ 765 ___ -- ___________ 567 ______ 3 ________1332 _____ --

Scotty Lightning ______ 641 ___ -- ___________ 636 ______ 6 ________1277 _____ --

dmillz25 ____________ 673 ___ -- ___________ 550 ______ 1 ________ 1223 _____ --

Stebo _______________833 ___ 2 ___________ 382 ______ -- ________1215 _____ --

___Normal ___________662 ___ -- ___________512 ______ -- ________1174 _____ --

mappy ______________731 ___ -- ___________ 408 ______ -- ________1139 _____ --

Orangeburgwx________635 ___ -- ___________ 415 ______ -- ________1050 _____ --

 

Four Seasons total points to date

... listed in order of all nine total points ...

 

FORECASTER ____ (original six) __ Points __ (western) __ Points __ (all nine) __ Points

 

Roger Smith _________1,10 ______ 11 _______ 5, 0 ______5 _____ 4, 7 _____11

RodneyS ____________ 0, 7 ______ 7 ________1,10 _____ 11 _____ 0,10 ____ 10

Scotty Lightning _____10, 0_______ 10 ______ 10, 6_____ 16 ____ 10, 0 _____10

Don Sutherland.1 _____5, 4 _______ 9 _______ 7, 4 _____ 11 _____ 6, 4 _____ 10

hudsonvalley21 ______ 7, 1 _______ 8 _______ 3, 2 ______ 5 _____ 7, 1 ______ 8

wxdude64 __________ 4, 6 _______10 _______ 0, 0 ______ 0 _____1, 6 ______ 7

___Normal __________ 7, 0 _______ 7 _______ 6, 0 ______6 _____ 7, 0 ______ 7

so_whats_happening __ 6. 0 _______ 6 _______ 2, 3 ______5 _____ 5, 0 ______ 5

Tom ________________0, 5 _______ 5 _______ 6, 1 _____ 7 _____ 0, 5 _______ 5

BKViking ____________ 3, 0 _______ 3 _______ 1, 7 _____ 8 ______ 3, 2 ______ 5

wxallannj ____________2, 1 _______ 3 _______ 1, 5 _____ 6 ______ 2, 3 ______ 5

___ Consensus _______ 2.,1 _______ 3 _______ 3, 4 _____ 7 _____ 4, 1 _______ 5

RJay ________________1, 1 ________ 2 ______ 0, 2 _____ 2 _____ 1, 1 _______ 2

H2O_Town__WX ______ 0, 0 _______ 0 _______ 5, 0 _____ 5 _____ 1, 0 _______ 1

dmillz25 _____________ 1, 0 _______ 1 ________0, 1 _____ 1 _____ 0, 0 _______ 0

(only forecasters with any points are in table)

 

 

 

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