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Roger Smith

May 2018 temperature forecast contest, Regional Rumble, and annual max temp contest

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The usual monthly temperature forecast contest (and continuation of the now very close Regional Rumble) will be accompanied this month by the annual max contest. We have had this added bonus contest each of the past three years and most of our regulars have entered it -- see rules below.

For the temperature forecast contest, it's the usual challenge to predict the anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 "normals" for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

For the annual maximum contest, it's simply based on the 2018 maximum for each of those same locations, with the season being all year rather than the summer months alone, as the max can happen in May or September. So add on those forecasts to your May anomaly predictions. 

Deadline for the main temperature contest is 06z May 1st with 1% penalties from then on every four hours to 18z May 2nd and 1% per hour late after that. 

There won't be a late penalty applied to the seasonal max portion, if you happen to forget and then edit them in before May 10th or so when I make up a table of entries for the seasonal max, that will be fine, and it gives me a few days to send reminders. And if anyone just wants to enter this seasonal max contest alone, that will be fine too. 

Good luck !!!

(April provisional scoring available, everything is tightening up in all contests ... and the snowfall contest is pretty much done now, as DEN is still way below even our minimum forecast and it's unlikely to snow (much) at the other locations -- that contest is updated when necessary back in the February thread but I will move the likely results to this thread around May 8th or so -- technically the contest runs to June 30th). 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0     0.5     0.5         0.5      1.5     1.0       1.0      1.5     0.5

 

103    100    97        98        101     107       98       114    96

 

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DCA +2.2     

 

NYC +2.8

BOS +1.7

ORD +2.2

ATL +0.5

IAH 0.3

DEN +0.8

PHX +0.8

SEA -0.3

NYC

 

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 99°
NYC: 96°
BOS: 95°
ORD: 98°
ATL: 94°
IAH: 98°
DEN: 98°
PHX: 116
SEA: 91°

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.0    3.1      2.7         2.8      0.8     0.3        1.0      0.8     1.6

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 99°
NYC: 98°
BOS: 97°
ORD: 95°
ATL: 96°
IAH: 101°
DEN: 100°
PHX: 116°
SEA: 88°

NYC Metro subforum

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DCA +1.6 102

NYC +1.0 99

BOS +0.2 96

ORD +1.3 100

ATL +2.0 97

IAH +0.3 102

DEN -0.9 96

PHX -0.3 118

SEA -1.0 90

Mid Atlantic subforum 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.5     1.1      1.5       -0.3     0.0    0.7        2.0      2.4     2.6

Highest Temperatures:

DCA: 97°
NYC: 96°
BOS: 95°
ORD: 94°
ATL: 96°
IAH: 101°
DEN: 100°
PHX: 117°
SEA: 89°

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DCA +2.1        98

NYC +2.3        99

BOS +1.1        97

ORD +1.9       97

ATL +2.3        99

IAH +0.9        98

DEN -0.4        97

PHX +0.7      121

SEA -0.3      93

TV

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DCA: +2.5 102

NYC: +2.1 99

BOS: +2.2  98

ORD: +1.1  101

ATL: +1.1 103

IAH: +0.8 103

DEN: +0.8 98

PHX: +0.9 119

SEA: -0.8  94

 

Philly

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Table of forecasts May 2018

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

afewUniverses bn __MA __________ +4.0 _+3.5 _+3.2 ___ +2.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _--0.5

Roger Smith ___ C + W___________+3.6 _+3.4 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.8 ___ +2.0 _+2.3 _+1.4

DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________+3.0 _+3.1 _+2.7 ___ +2.8 _+0.8 _+0.3 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.6

Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.1 _+0.8 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _--0.8

wxallannj _____ NYC _____________+2.2 _+2.8 _+1.7 ___ +2.2 _+0.5 _+0.3 ___ +0.8 _+0.8 _--0.3

jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ +2.1 _+2.3 _+1.1 ___ +1.9 _+2.3 _+0.9 ___ --0.4 _+0.7 _--0.3

wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____+2.1 _+1.6 _+2.3 ___ +0.9 _+0.8 _+1.1 ___ +0.3 _--0.2 _--0.3

Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____+2.1 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___ +0.8 _+2.6 _+0.9 ___ --0.3 _+2.0 _+0.2

BKViking ______ NYC ____________ +2.0 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ +1.0 _+2.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.3

 

___ Consensus __________________+2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.6 _+0.9 ___ +0.8 _+1.0 __0.0

 

Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.5 _+2.2 _+0.5 ___ --1.1 _--1.1 _--2.0

so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +1.8 _+1.7 _+2.2 ___ +1.4 _+2.3 _--0.5

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________+1.6 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.9 _+2.1 _+0.1

mappy _________ MA ____________+1.6 _+1.0 _+0.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+0.3 ___ --0.9 _--0.3 _--1.0

RJay __________ NYC ____________+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.5 __0.0

RodneyS ________ MA ___________ +1.5 _+1.1 _+1.5 ___ --0.3 __0.0 _+0.7 ___ +2.0 _+2.4 _+2.6

dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

 

Normal _________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

________________________________________________________________________________________

** 17 forecasters, consensus is median (9th ranked forecast) **

color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, where Normal is bold, it is colder than lowest forecast or tied.

A table of entries for the Seasonal max contest will be posted around May 11th, you have until end of 10th to edit or post those.

Good luck (nice to see only very small late penalties all round this month)

April results are posted ... Regional Rumble is very close. 

______ ____ ___ __ _ *** *** _ __ ___ ____ ______

Snowfall contest results are probably final now since all entrants have at least 14" left for DEN before increasing errors, will be moving that table from the

February thread to this one soon. 

 

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Was that for changes or the max temps? Normally for intended edits I allow them if a moderator can verify and you're a moderator so ... I trust you (thanks for pinning the thread by the way).

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First report on May anomalies with projections ... 

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7

 

_8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0 _ +0.5 _+4.0

 

_8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0

________________________________________________________________

There is little sign of any further snowfall at DEN so with all forecasters holding at least 14" in reserve there,

contest outcome is likely sealed. I will check the tables back in the February thread and move the final results

here in a day or two. DonSutherland.1 is leading with hudsonvalley21 in second place. 

A reminder, anyone who did not give seasonal max predictions has until end of 10th to edit them in or post, 

then a table of seasonal max forecasts will appear. 

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We are good to go with the seasonal max contest, I think all the regular contest entrants have placed their markers so here's a table of forecasts ... in order of DCA forecast then where tied, NYC etc until the ties are broken ... and consensus will be our average rather than the median. 

Note (15th) will be adding actual values as we get into June, but SEA has already hit 88 (our minimum forecast) as of May 14th. 

 

Seasonal Max 2018 contest

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

Scotty Lightning ____________103 100 __ 97 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 107 _____ 98 _ 114 __ 96

RJay _____________________ 102 _ 100 __ 99 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 ____102 _ 117 __ 95

Tom _____________________ 102 __ 99 __ 98 _____101 _ 103 _ 103 _____ 98 _ 119 __ 94

mappy ___________________ 102 __ 99 __ 96 _____100 __ 97 _ 102 _____ 96 _ 118 __ 90

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 _____ 99 __ 97 _ 104 _____ 99 _ 115 __ 90

wxdude64 _________________100 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 101 _ 102 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 95

dmillz25 __________________ 100 _ 100 __ 97 ____ 101 _ 101 _ 103 _____100 _ 119 __ 95

so_whats_happening ________100 __ 99 _ 101 _____ 98 __ 97 _ 103 _____101 _ 119 __ 98

 

___ Consensus (mean) ______ 100 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 99 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 93

 

Roger Smith _______________100 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 98 _ 102 _ 104 _____107122 __ 93

Stebo ____________________ 100 __ 97 __ 95 ____ 101 __ 98 _ 103 _____ 97 _ 116 __ 92

DonSutherland.1 ____________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 _____ 95 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 116 __ 88

BKViking ___________________99 __ 97 __ 95 _____ 99 __ 98 _ 100 _____ 95 _ 116 __ 91

wxallannj __________________ 99 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 98 __ 94 __ 98 _____ 98 _ 116 __ 91

jaxjagman _________________ 98 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 97 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 97 _ 121 __ 93

RodneyS ___________________97 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 94 __ 96 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 117 __ 89

Orangeburgwx ______________ 97 __ 93 __ 91 _____99 _ 102 _ 101 _____ 87 _ 105 __ 90 

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 

Near-final report on snowfall contest

The following tables are moved over from the February thread where they have been updated. DEN seems unlikely to see much if any snow in the next two weeks and since all forecasters have plenty left to give in terms of DEN error, we can probably assume these results are final even if we have to add small amounts to DEN totals and remove similar amounts of error from each forecaster. I will maintain a watch on this to June 30th just in case. But for now, it is congrats to DonSutherland.1 and hudsonvalley21 for leading the way in our snowfall contest. Glad we added DTW, BUF and BTV to the locations although ATL and IAH actually had more snow this past winter than in any of the contest years when they were included. 

Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts

... this will continue to be updated to end of contest in this location ...

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total _____ dep

 

so_whats_happening___ 22.0 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0 ___ 438.0 ___ 122.2

Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3 ___ 533.3 ___ 129.1

Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0___ 460.0 ___ 128.2

dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.070.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0 ___ 528.0 ___ 112.0

wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5 ___ 482.3 ___ 148.3

hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0 ___ 466.5 ____ 98.5

DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7 ___ 478.3 ____ 81.7

H2OTown_WX ________ 14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1 ___ 368.4 ___ 130.4

 

___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0___459.0___103.0

 

Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5 ___ 398.5 ___ 130.7

wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0  ___340.3 ___ 203.5

BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0___511.0 ___ 117.0

RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _105.0 ___536.0 ___ 113.4

Scotty Lightning (SD) ___10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0 ___ 486.0 ___ 123.2

RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0 ___ 384.4 ___ 155.0

SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0 _ 75.0 ___ 367.0 ___ 187.8

 

Table of departures (errors) 

Numbers in red show forecasts already passed by actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to increases.

Numbers in black show forecasts still below actual snowfall. These numbers are subject to decreases.

 

Rank _FORECASTER ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___ Total dep

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 ______ 07.3 _ 06.6 _ 06.5 __ 12.8 _ 06.8 _ 00.3 __ 30.1 _ 03.3 _ 08.0 ____ 81.7

 2 hudsonvalley21________07.7 _ 01.1 _ 02.9 __ 10.9 _ 10.0 _ 21.3 __ 38.3 _ 06.0 _ 00.3 ____ 98.5

( 3) __ Consensus _____06.6 _07.2 _06.5 __12.8 _10.0_16.5__30.1_06.0 _07.3 ___103.0

 3 dmillz25 _____________09.2 _ 00.1 _ 02.9 __ 30.9_ 09.0 07.3 __ 34.3 _ 11.0 _ 07.3 ___ 112.0

 4 RJay ________________02.2 _ 00.9 _ 10.1 __ 13.9 _ 06.0 _07.7 __ 54.3 _ 02.0 _ 16.3 ___ 113.4

 5 BKViking _____________03.2 _ 07.9 _ 10.1 __03.9 _ 11.0 _ 02.3 __ 51.3 _ 06.0 _ 21.3___ 117.0 

 6 so_whats_happening___14.2 02.9 _ 03.1 __ 05.1 _ 25.0 _ 27.3 __ 27.3 _ 10.0 _ 07.3 ___ 122.2

 7 Scotty Lightning (SD) __ 02.2 _ 17.9 _ 14.9 __ 18.9 _ 06.0 _ 02.3 __ 59.300.0 _ 01.7 ___ 123.2

 8 Roger Smith _________ 11.7 _ 00.9 _ 00.1 __ 03.1 _ 16.0 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 13.5 _ 21.3___ 128.2

 9 Tom _______________ 11.8 _ 02.9 _ 03.2 __ 23.3 _ 07.6 _ 08.5 __ 45.8 _ 05.4 _ 20.6 ___ 129.1

10 H2OTown_WX ________06.6 _ 17.7 _ 18.7 __ 08.3 _ 22.3 _ 18.9 __ 14.9 _ 01.4 _ 21.6 ___ 130.4

11 Stebo _______________04.7 _ 07.2 _ 09.9 __ 13.9 _ 03.7 _ 47.3 __ 24.8 _ 03.0 _ 16.2 ___ 130.7

12 wxdude64____________08.5 _ 13.2 22.4 __ 18.7 _ 05.5 _ 10.1 __ 51.9 _ 07.2 _ 10.8 ___ 148.3

13 RodneyS ____________ 00.3 _ 15.9 24.1 __ 16.3 _ 15.3 _ 16.5 __ 26.4 _ 08.5 _ 31.7 ___ 155.0

14 SnoSki14 ____________05.8 35.9 _ 24.9 __ 03.9 _ 16.0 _ 32.3 __ 29.3 _ 26.0 _ 13.7 ___ 187.8

15 wxallannj ___________  04.5 _ 13.9 _ 26.9 __ 01.9 _ 18.0 _ 59.3 __ 32.3 _ 15.0 _ 31.7  ___203.5

 

Amounts to date _______ 7.8 _40.9 _59.9 __36.1 _61.0_112.3__25.7 _4.0 _ 88.7 __ 436.4

NOTE: Unless more than 15" more snow falls at DEN or any snow falls elsewhere, these standings can be considered final.

______________________________________________________________________

15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked).

Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold.

Least snowfall forecasts are shown in italics.

Forecasts passed by totals to date are in red. 

______________________________________________________________________________

CLOSEST FORECASTS (to date) ___________ CLOSEST TOTAL SNOWFALL (current 436.4")

DCA _ RodneyS (+0.3) ___________________ 1. so_whats_happening _____ +1.6"

NYC _ dmillz25 (+0.1) ___________________ (2) Consensus ____________+22.6"

BOS _ Roger Smith (+0.1) ________________ 2. Roger Smith ___________ +23.6"

ORD _ wxallannj (+1.9) __________________ 3. hudsonvalley21 _________+30.1"

DTW _ Stebo (-3.7) ______________________4.  Stebo ________________--37.9"

BUF _ DonSutherland.1 (+0.3) _____________5. DonSutherland.1 ________+41.9"

DEN _ H2OTown_Wx (+14.9) _____________ 6. wxdude64 ______________+45.9"

SEA _ Scotty Lightning (0.0) ______________ 7. Scotty Lightning__________+49.6"

BTV _ Scotty Lightning (-1.7) ______________8. RodneyS _______________--52.0"

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Update on the anomaly tracker ... seasonal max contest table of entries posted so the first edition of this is back in the thread, and have added the presumed final report on snowfall contest to that post.

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ notes 

 

_8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7

15th ______ (14 d) ______ +7.9_ +5.9 _ +4.8 ___ +6.6 _+5.5_ +3.0 ___ +4.5_ +2.6 _+6.8 ___ ** compares to ** below

22nd ______ (21 d) ______ +6.7_ +4.3 _ +4.2 ___ +4.1 _+5.1_ +3.3 ___ +3.1_ +2.1 _+5.9 ___ ## compares to ## below

25th ______ (24d) _______ +6.6_ +4.3 _ +4.1 ___ +4.2 _+5.1_ +2.8 ___ +3.5_ +1.8 _+6.1 ___ !!! compares to !!! below (16d)

 

_8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0_ +0.5 _+4.0 ___ ** actuals above at **

15th _____( p21st NWS) __+6.6_ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.2 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +4.0_ +2.5 _+5.7 ___ ## actuals above at ##

22nd_____( p28th NWS) __+6.0_ +4.4 _ +4.0 ___ +4.5 _+4.5_ +3.7 ___ +3.5_ +1.8 _+4.7

 

_8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5_ +1.0 _+2.0 ___ !!! actuals above at !!!

15th _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+5.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0_ +2.0 _+4.0

22nd _____( p31st GFS) __ +5.0_ +4.0 _ +3.0 ___ +4.0 _+4.0_ +3.5 ___ +3.0_ +2.0 _+4.0

25th _____ (p31st NWS) __ +5.6_ +4.0 _ +4.0 ___ +5.0 _+4.5_ +3.5 ___ +4.0_ +2.0 _+5.0

_____________________

15th _ The past week forecasts proved a little warm for parts of the northeast and Great Lakes as it actually turned very cool for two days, while for SEA the opposite occurred, warmth was predicted but record heat developed in the past two days, and combined that likely accounts for the larger errors but overall the accuracy of NWS estimates was fairly good at other locations, the overall average error was 1.34 deg. (0.5 for the best five). My longer term estimates (bottom row) take the p21d NWS values and assume half-strength continued warming at most locations since the patterns don't appear to change very much, continued similar for southeast to Gulf, so I feel that these end of month estimates are more likely to err on the conservative side. As all nine are still warmer than almost all forecasts, could be a green light for early provisional scoring.  

22nd _ This past week, NWS forecasts averaged an excellent 0.43 deg average error. The end of month projections all remain the same except for ATL which now appears closer to our forecast range so that gives all forecasters a boost of about 20 points.

25th _ We now have provisionals all based on seven-day NWS forecasts. Some of those are a bit higher than previous, and the few BOS cases of higher forecasts than provisionals are now eliminated (for the time being). A few remain at PHX which did not change. Some boosted scoring situations are developing but I will leave that for the final analysis, it won't make much difference to differentials. The estimates made on the 8th can be directly compared to today's updated anomalies. The average error was only 1.1 deg and half of that was due to a large error for SEA, so the GFS was doing a good job (the NWS portion can be assumed to be small). 

________________________________________________________________

 

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Provisional scoring for May 2018

Most stations are running at or above our highest forecasts so if that trend is not reversed, the following order of scoring would be likely to persist, even if the totals go up or down for all forecasters. Scores are based on the latest provisionals posted above (previous post) and the scoring table is adjusted whenever those change. Scores in red at this point are for those very few forecasts (now only at PHX) higher than provisional values (to make it faster for editing later). High scores are in bold type. Since late penalties are small (1-2 pts) I have just incorporated them directly into the scoring for now. The station scores are now post-penalty and the various subtotals and grand totals from those subtotals are also post-penalty (the raw scores are reduced by one to three shown by *, ** or ***). Some were too low to get any reduction. 

I will probably have to wait until early June to make decisions about two issues, high scores and boosted scores for ATL possibly (this would need ATL to finish 4.6 or higher). The old policy was to award high scores to both occasional and regular contest entrants but with this being May it's possible that afewU-bn will become a regular. For now, high scores are in bold and secondary high scores (regular entrant) in italics. 

ORD and SEA scores will need to be boosted if the max score remains under 60. 

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA___west___ TOTALS

 

Roger Smith ___ C + W__________ 66 _ 88 _100___ 254 ___ 50 _ 60 _ 86 ___ 196 __450 __60 _ 94 _ 28 __ 182 ___ 632

afewUniverses bn __MA __________74 _ 90 _ 84 ___ 248 ___ 40 _ 70 _ 80 ___ 190 __ 438 __60 _100_ 00 __ 160 ___ 598

DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________54 _ 82 _ 74 ___ 210 ___ 56 _ 26 _ 36 ___ 118 __ 328 __40 _ 76 _ 32 __ 148 ___ 476

so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_29*_63*_51*___ 143 ___ 35*_43*_73*___ 151 __ 294 __47*_92**_00__ 139 ___ 433

BKViking ______ NYC ____________ 34 _ 64 _ 56 ___ 154 ___ 20 _ 54 _ 50 ___ 124 __ 278 __40 _ 76 _ 26 __ 142 ___ 420

hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________26 _ 56 _ 44 ___ 126 ___ 22 _ 42 _ 68 ___ 132 __ 258 __38 _ 98 _ 02 __ 138 ___ 396

wxallannj _______ NYC ___________38 _ 76 _ 54 ___ 168 ___ 44 _ 20 _ 36 ___ 100 __ 268 __36 _ 76 _ 00 __ 112 ___ 380

Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____43*_61*_63*___ 167 ___ 22 _ 31*_45*___ 098 __ 265 __35*_76**_00__ 111 ___ 376

RodneyS ________ MA ___________ 24 _ 42 _ 50 ___ 116 ___ 00 _ 10 _ 44 ___ 054 __ 170 __60 92 _52__ 204 ___ 374 

jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ 36 _ 66 _ 42 ___ 144 ___ 38 _ 56 _ 48 ___ 142 __ 284 __12 _ 74 _ 00 __ 086 ___ 372

 

___ Consensus __________________34 _ 56 _ 50 ___ 140 ___ 26 _ 42 _ 48 ___ 116 __ 256 __36 _ 80 _ 00 __ 116 ___ 372

 

Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____35*_49*_45*___ 129 ___ 16 _60** 47*___ 123 __ 252 __14_97***_04__ 115 ___ 367

wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____36 _ 51*_65*___ 152 ___ 18 _ 26 _ 51*___095 __ 247 __26 _ 55*_ 00 __ 081 ___ 328

dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________14 _ 30 _ 30 ___ 074 ___ 30 _ 40 _ 80 ___ 150 __ 224 __00 _ 80 _ 20 __ 100 ___ 324

Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________14 _ 30 _ 30 ___ 074 ___ 10 _ 40 _ 50 ___ 100 __ 174 __40 _ 90 _ 10 __ 140 ___ 314

Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________34 _ 50 _ 34 ___ 118 ___ 30 _ 54 _ 40 ___ 124 __ 242 __00 _ 38 _ 00 __ 038 ___ 280

RJay __________ NYC ____________24 _ 50 _ 40 ___ 114 ___ 10 _ 20 _ 30 ___ 060 __ 174 __10 _ 90 _ 00 __ 100 ___ 274

mappy _________ MA ____________26 _ 40 _ 24 ___ 090 ___ 26 _ 50 _ 36 ___ 112 __ 202 __02 _ 54 _ 00 __ 056 ___ 258

 

Normal ________________________ 00 _ 20 _ 20 ___ 040 ___ 00 _ 10 _ 30 ___ 040 __ 080 __20 _ 60 _ 00 __ 080 ___ 160

 

Regional Rumble Provisional Scoring

Region _________ Eastern ___ Central ___ Western ____ TOTALS

Mid-Atlantic ________ 248 ________ 190 ________ 204 ________ 642

Central + Western ___254 ________ 196 ________ 182 ________ 632

New York City ______ 210 ________ 150 ________ 148 ________ 508

PA/NY ____________143 _________ 151 ________ 139 ________ 433

Philadelphia _______ 167 _________ 100 ________ 140 ________ 407

TN Valley _________ 144 _________ 142 ________ 086 ________ 372

___ Consensus _____140 _________ 116 ________ 116 ________ 372

Southeast _________ 129 _________123 ________ 115 ________ 367

Great Lakes / OV ___ 118 _________ 124 ________ 038 ________ 280

Normal ___________ 040 _________ 040 ________ 080 ________ 160

________________________________________________________________________________________

(without the help of afewU-bn, MA scored 564)

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May 20 _ I have just checked the latest forecasts and guidance to end of month, the provisionals in use for the table above appear to be on track in general, so here's how the annual races are now shaping up ...

 

--- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - May 2018 ====>>>> -- ----

 

Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) 

... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red)

... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals.

... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown.

MAY based on provisional scoring ... best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked*

... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five months including May by end of year.

... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months)

 

FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

Roger Smith ________310 _304 _316 ____930 ____ 237 _320 _132 ____ 689 ___ 1619 __2*2*2 03*1 .2.1 __ MAY

so_whats_happening _172 _229 _291 ____ 692 ____ 243 _280 _220 ____ 743___ 1435 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB

hudsonvalley21 _____ 237 _260 _252 ____ 749 ____ 143 _273 _263 ____ 679 ___ 1428 ___

wxdude64 _________ 276 _270 _310 ____ 856 ____ 186 _237 _142 ____ 565 ___ 1421 ___ 110 000 .1.0

DonSutherland.1 ___  244 _252 _272 ____ 768 ____ 185 _272 _179 ____ 636 ___ 1404 ___ 000.100 .0.0

jaxjagman _________ 228 _220 _286 ____ 734 ____ 162 _274 _196 ____ 632 ___ 1366 ___ 001 000 .0.0

 

___Normal _________234 _227 _289 ____ 750 ____ 242 _225 _107 ____ 574 ___ 1324 ___ 000 101 .0.0

Scotty Lightning (SD) _221 _217 _296 ____ 734 ____ 227 _207 _137 ____ 571 ___ 1305 ___ 000 100 .0.1

___Consensus ______ 215 _227 _266 ____ 708 ____ 163 _252 _175 ____ 590 ___ 1298 ___

 

RJay ______________190 _252 _271 ____ 713 ____ 117 _256 _209 ____ 582 ___ 1295 ___ 011 001 .1.0 __ APR

BKViking ___________225 _255 _274 ____ 754 ____ 127 _225 _183 ____ 535 ___ 1289 ___

Stebo _____________ 190 _202 _248 ____ 640 ____ 175 _252 _210 ____ 637 ___ 1277 ___ 000 001 .0.0

wxallannj __________ 210 _252 _256 ____ 718 ____ 164 _208 _185 ____ 557 ___ 1275 ___ 000 001

RodneyS __________ 220 _216 _234 ____ 670 ____ 171 _234 _154 ____ 559 ___ 1229 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR

mappy ____________ 178 _195 _259 ____ 632 ____ 155 _234 _204 ____ 593 ___ 1225 ___ 001 000 .0.0

Tom ______________ 201 _223 _263 ____ 687 ____ 125 _251 _123 ____ 499 ___ 1186 ___

dmillz25 ___________ 181 _157 _184 ____ 522 ____ 182 _228 _192 ____ 602 ___ 1124 ___ 000 010 .0.0

Orangeburgwx _(4/5)_095 _157 _187 ____ 439 ____ 105 _082 _151 ____ 338 ____ 777 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0

Mercurial (2/5) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN

H2O_Town_WX (3/5)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0

H2O ___(2/4) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0

afewUniverses bn (1)_074 _090 _084 ____ 248 ____ 040 _070 _080 ____ 190 ____ 438 ___ 110 010 .0.0

nrgJeff _ (2/5) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___

buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___

Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ 

tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___

CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___

_________ (1 mo F) _^^

note: all shown (2/5) missed March to May, Orangeburgwx (4/5) missed January and H2OTown_wx (3/5) missed April, May.

 

Part Two: Western and All Nine contests

... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals

for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank)

Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 262 _ 318 _ 320 _____ 900 __________ 0 0 2 __ Apr ______ 2205 (= 3)

BKViking _______________224 _ 292 _ 290 _____ 806 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2095 (= 6)

RodneyS_______________ 236 _ 344 _ 220 _____ 800 __________ 1 1 1 __May _______2029 (= 8) __ MAR, APR

so_whats_happening _____229 _ 319 _ 227 _____ 775 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2210 (= 2) __ FEB

DonSutherland.1 ________ 252 _ 260 _ 252 _____ 764 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______2168 (= 5)

Tom __________________ 253 _ 268 _ 242 _____ 763 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1949 (=12)

Roger Smith ____________240 _ 280 _ 240 _____ 760 __________ 1 0 0 __ Jan _______ 2379 (= 1) __ MAY

hudsonvalley21 _________ 226 _ 263 _ 255 _____ 744 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 2172 (= 4)

 

__Normal ______________236 _ 238 _ 270 _____ 744 __________ 1 1 1 _____________ 2068 (= 8) __ FEB

__ Consensus __________ 222 _ 278 _ 242 _____ 742 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2040 (= 8)

 

wxallannj ______________ 214 _ 296 _ 224 _____ 734 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______2009 (=10)

RJay __________________178 _ 248 _ 248 _____ 674 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1969 (=11)

Orangeburgwx (4/5)______213 _ 259 _ 201 _____ 673 __________ 1 2 1 __ Feb _______1450 (=16)

wxdude64 _____________ 220 _ 226 _ 221 _____ 667 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2088 (= 7)

jaxjagman _____________ 172 _ 248 _ 236 _____ 656 __________ 0 0 0 _____________2022 (= 9)

dmillz25 _______________ 161 _ 257 _ 202 _____ 620 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1744 (=14)

Stebo _________________ 120 _ 202 _ 192 _____ 514 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1791 (=13)

mappy _________________120 _ 196 _ 175 _____ 491 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1716 (=15)

H2OTown__WX (3/5) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18)

Mercurial __ (2/5) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN

nrgJeff ____ _(2/5) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21)

H2O ____ (2/5) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19)

afewUniv bn (1 mo May) __ 060 _ 100 _ 000 _____ 160 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 598 (=20)

cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr)_ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22)

tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24)

buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23)

CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-May) 

 

Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS 

 

Mid Atlantic _______________1066 _____ 847 _____ 877 ________2790

Central + Western _________ 1084 _____ 828 _____ 806 ________2718

NYC ______________________935 _____ 790 _____ 944 ________2669

PHL ______________________947 _____ 627 _____ 924 ________2498

PA / NY ___________________692 _____ 743 _____ 775 ________2210

TN Valley _________________ 782 _____ 632 _____ 666 ________2080

___Normal ________________ 750 _____ 564 _____ 744 ________2058

___ Consensus _____________708 _____ 590 _____ 742 ________2040

Southeast _________________ 603 _____ 484 _____ 790 ________1877

Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 640 _____ 637 _____ 514 ________1791

New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979

 

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