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April 18th-19th Winter Storm


MNstorms

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd lean a bit more on the cooler models personally.  It seems like another case of some of the models being like "hey, it's April, better warm the boundary layer excessively despite precip."  

Yeah I think the HRRR is underplaying the dynamic cooling that will take place with the heavier convective precip.  I also think the NAMs could be overdoing it a bit as well.  Something somewhere in the middle may be the best play from a forecasting standpoint.  I'm expecting mostly a rain/sleet type event, with perhaps an occasional burst of wet snow until mid afternoon.  After that some residual light snow/snow showers may put down a nice 1/2" coating on grassy/elevated surfaces as the sun gets low in the sky late in the day.

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah I think the HRRR is underplaying the dynamic cooling that will take place with the heavier convective precip.  I also think the NAMs could be overdoing it a bit as well.  Something somewhere in the middle may be the best play from a forecasting standpoint.  I'm expecting mostly a rain/sleet type event, with perhaps an occasional burst of wet snow until mid afternoon.  After that some residual light snow/snow showers may put down a nice 1/2" coating on grassy/elevated surfaces as the sun gets low in the sky late in the day.

Definitely have an advantage of more favorable timing around here, as the changeover to snow doesn't look to occur until just after typical peak heating and possibly not until early evening. That is why I am going a little bullish here, in addition to several more hours of temps AOB freezing, temps not getting too out of hand tomorrow and potentially a period of more moderate rates. 

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25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like the snow band has shifted north some after yesterday's southward shifts.

Yes, it's coming in a bit north of yesterday's models. DVN needs to downgrade their WSW zones to WWA. Here in Madison it looks like I will be slightly to the south of the heaviest snows. I see some heavier reports starting to come in from IA like 6.5 inches in Clear Lake, so the storm is producing. We'll see how well it holds together as it moves east. 

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After a 4 hour delay, and really getting dry slotted this morning, we have finally switched over to light to moderate snow here in DVN...Big fluffy flakes, lowering visibility in the higher DBZ....Liking the look of radar back towards Des Moines and the I-80 corridor for a decent period of snow this evening that may give us that 1" after all to close things down for the season. 

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

3km NAM gets a big F-.  HRRR depicted the warmer/more northerly setup more correctly.  An absolute miserable day, with heavy drizzle and temps hovering around 33.  Saw a few wet flakes about an hour ago, but they were fleeting.  

HRRR still gives you a little snow later.

Interestingly, even with the main band ending up north of where it looked like it would yesterday, it hasn't really changed the forecast scenario for most of Chicagoland.

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

3km NAM gets a big F-.  HRRR depicted the warmer/more northerly setup more correctly.  An absolute miserable day, with heavy drizzle and temps hovering around 33.  Saw a few wet flakes about an hour ago, but they were fleeting.  

The euro gets an A for seeing this potent system several days ago, before any other models, but it's gets an F for trending farther south than any other model and busting bad with the track of the heavy snow band.

39 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN's winter storm warning along the highway 30 corridor may end up being one of the worst busts I've seen from them.  Doubling down on it this afternoon didn't help.  

I don't know what's up with DVN.  No model ever had warning-criteria snow or ice along hw30 through Cedar Rapids, but they issued a warning for a light glaze of ice and 1-3" of snow.  First thing this morning, it was pretty clear this system was tracking farther north and would bust down here, but they kept the warning going.  Late this afternoon they kept it going again because there may be some slick spots on the roads this evening.  wtf?!?  Terry Swails, last hour, also said the warning should have been dropped several hours ago.

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54 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The euro gets an A for seeing this potent system several days ago, before any other models, but it's gets an F for trending farther south than any other model and busting bad with the track of the heavy snow band.

I don't know what's up with DVN.  No model ever had warning-criteria snow or ice along hw30 through Cedar Rapids, but they issued a warning for a light glaze of ice and 1-3" of snow.  First thing this morning, it was pretty clear this system was tracking farther north and would bust down here, but they kept the warning going.  Late this afternoon they kept it going again because there may be some slick spots on the roads this evening.  wtf?!?  Terry Swails, last hour, also said the warning should have been dropped several hours ago.

Yeah that's lol worthy.  I miss the days when they were more strict, and didn't issue warnings unless 6" of snow was forecast to fall.  For a warning to be issued with <6" of snow then there should also be a substantial ice accumulation expected as well, not just a minor glazing.

It's snowing lightly here now, but the snow is mostly snow grains.  

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Looks like a few tenths out on the grass.  Unlike a few nights ago the paved areas refused accumulation.  May get another few tenths out of this last blob of precip rotating down from the north.  This is one of the latest accumulating snows I can remember.  There's probably been others, but I can't remember any specifically.

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