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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

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3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

ENSO is a two sided +/- in the west and east.. this is below 0 signature, trending cooler. 

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz_Anom_Comp.gif

About 150W-> and 180W-<

But is this more from a decent KW downwelling?Your map didn't pull up but WEST of the IDL and even east of the IDL is showing the thermocline around +2 on the triton,i assume that was the map you meant to post?It still looks warmer in the thermocline towards the surface into 3.4 than it does into or around the IDO

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On August 3, 2018 at 12:49 AM, raindancewx said:

Need to see the July numbers for Nino 1.2 and Nino 3.4 first. The Modoki formula is Box A-(0.5*Box B)-(0.5*Box C), and very positive values correspond to Modoki El Ninos. I'm expecting a +0.5 Modoki value, similar to the DJF Modoki value for 2014-15, but not as severe a winter in the East without the super charged positive PDO. You can predict Modoki values in each box for winter with October values pretty closely with simple correlations, to estimate the overall Modoki structure. That method had -0.1 to +0.1 last winter, which verified. July data is good at predicting October - so that is the method. For Box C, the rate of warming is faster since 1900 than the other boxes and solar conditions correlate to wind direction/velocity, so year and solar are important components for that area.

This is what the numbers input for last year had (-0.08 was the actual DJF Modoki value). This is a calculator for Modoki structure I made on my computer.

Region SSTA Anomalies by Box Global Area
Box A 165E to 140W, 10S to 10N Trop Pac Middle
Box B 110W to 70W, 15S to 5N S. America waters
Box C 125E-145E, 10S to 20N Japan to Equator
           
Index Modoki = (A SSTA)-(0.5B SSTA)-(0.5C*SSTA)  
           
*Enter Input Values in Yellow Boxes. Computer Will Calculate Pink Values*  
BOX  Input Temp, C Forecast 1950-2017 Range (ERSST V.5)  
BOX A Oct SST, C 26.15 -0.064 24.4C to 29.1C  
BOX B Oct SST, C 20.21 -0.251 18.9C to 24.7C  
BOX C     0.492 Enter Input Values in this Color  
           
Box C Projection Factors      
Factor Timeframe Input      
Year Dec of DJF 2017      
Sunspots July-June 18.0      
ONIp ONI prior DJF -0.4      
           
Predicted Modoki Value for Winter -0.184    

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

Damn...I was hoping for another 100" in 30 days.

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20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

For those expecting a super cold winter in the East, keep in mind 2002-03, 2009-10, 2014-15 all had positive to record positive PDO values in DJF - a strong signal for cold in the East. In 2002-03 MJJ was already in an El Nino (+0.7C), which drove the PDO up through winter. No evidence of that happening yet for the coming winter.

I would argue the Atlantic being colder and the PDO being more negative are both pretty strong warm signals for the East relative to 2009-10 and 2014-15, even though some kind of Modoki El Nino is still plausible. Nov-Apr PDO is generally predictable by taking the PDO base in Mar-Aug before winter, and then seeing what Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs are. Reproducing those values is a good indicator for the PDO in Nov-Apr. All in all, the PDO looks much more negative for Eastern cold. May come in around 0 in Nov-Apr instead of +2 like in Nov-Apr 2014-15, a huge change.

KTNEhRj.png

 

It really will hinge on the NAO from about NYC points northward, should the Pacific evolve unfavorably. PDO can be a deal breaker further south.

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2 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Had it as a head fake from the onset, may have waffled once but I think my gut made a pretty solid call here. Neutral for the win.

Cooling is happening where the last 2 La Nina events were centered
 

  • uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif
    heat_xt_hf_drupal.gif

The subsurface heat around 180W is why it won't go La Nina but stay above zero or slightly above. 

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6 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Cooling is happening where the last 2 La Nina events were centered
 

  • uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif
    heat_xt_hf_drupal.gif

The subsurface heat around 180W is why it won't go La Nina but stay above zero or slightly above. 

Oof...Man it's been hard to get El Niño to show up! Two Nina's and a neutral...Okay, Winter 19-20 we'd have to be due for it to come back, right??? C'mon!

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Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

There is still a lot of heat below the surface around 120W and west of 170W. There is an extended SOI collapse ongoing now which looks to continue into the future. The waters around 5S in the Nino 3.4 zone are still fairly cold. Overall though, August still looks like it is warming from July.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
5 Aug 2018 1012.05 1012.60 -13.17 2.46 -0.44
4 Aug 2018 1013.34 1012.60 -5.34 2.34 -0.46
3 Aug 2018 1013.80 1013.10 -5.58 1.78 -0.67
2 Aug 2018 1013.81 1013.30 -6.74 1.26 -0.79
1 Aug 2018 1013.63 1013.50 -9.04 1.18 -0.68

D1YgZ2u.png

To put it simply...there is some warmth at the surface, there is some warmth below the surface, and the SOI is negative which to me indicates there is some kind of coupling going on. You can get a very hot Summer in the West with a developing Nino. A blend of 1958, 1994, 2002, 2014 is pretty close in JJA for high temperature departures to what has been observed the last 60 days.

jVHCszS.png

I don't want to give the impression that I'm expecting some huge, or even moderate El Nino - I am not. I think the peak is +0.5-0.9C. Whether the peak lasts long enough to be considered an El Nino, who knows. The 2012-13 and 2013-14 Neutrals both got to -0.3/-0.4 for a time, and acted like a La Nina for a bit, so to me, that is possible in the opposite direction. 

Edit: Also, the PDO looks to me like it is warming some. Still near Neutral, but NOAA's PDO jumped quite a bit in July from June, and the JISAO value likely will too. The PDO for Nov-Apr is predictable by using a base state value for Mar-Aug and then Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs. You create similar initial conditions from analogs and that is Nov-Apr. A pretty good idea for what the PDO will do should be available around mid-Sept when the Mar-Aug base period is in and we have an idea what Oct will be doing in Nino 1.2

http://jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

There is still a lot of heat below the surface around 120W and west of 170W. There is an extended SOI collapse ongoing now which looks to continue into the future. The waters around 5S in the Nino 3.4 zone are still fairly cold. Overall though, August still looks like it is warming from July.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
5 Aug 2018 1012.05 1012.60 -13.17 2.46 -0.44
4 Aug 2018 1013.34 1012.60 -5.34 2.34 -0.46
3 Aug 2018 1013.80 1013.10 -5.58 1.78 -0.67
2 Aug 2018 1013.81 1013.30 -6.74 1.26 -0.79
1 Aug 2018 1013.63 1013.50 -9.04 1.18 -0.68

D1YgZ2u.png

To put it simply...there is some warmth at the surface, there is some warmth below the surface, and the SOI is negative which to me indicates there is some kind of coupling going on. You can get a very hot Summer in the West with a developing Nino. A blend of 1958, 1994, 2002, 2014 is pretty close in JJA for high temperature departures to what has been observed the last 60 days.

jVHCszS.png

I don't want to give the impression that I'm expecting some huge, or even moderate El Nino - I am not. I think the peak is +0.5-0.9C. Whether the peak lasts long enough to be considered an El Nino, who knows. The 2012-13 and 2013-14 Neutrals both got to -0.3/-0.4 for a time, and acted like a La Nina for a bit, so to me, that is possible in the opposite direction. 

Edit: Also, the PDO looks to me like it is warming some. Still near Neutral, but NOAA's PDO jumped quite a bit in July from June, and the JISAO value likely will too. The PDO for Nov-Apr is predictable by using a base state value for Mar-Aug and then Oct Nino 1.2 SSTs. You create similar initial conditions from analogs and that is Nov-Apr. A pretty good idea for what the PDO will do should be available around mid-Sept when the Mar-Aug base period is in and we have an idea what Oct will be doing in Nino 1.2

http://jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt

So at this point...best we can hope for is a weak Niño, perhaps? (For the winter, that is...)

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I'm expecting a weak El Nino. JJA isn't going to hit +0.5C (Aug would need to top +1.1C), and I don't think JAS gets there either. These are the only El Ninos where ASO is the first El Nino period - 2006, 1994, 1986, 1977, 1976 (1923 did it too). 1986 & 1994 both briefly got over +1.0C at their peaks, but these are fairly weak Ninos overall.

Against MAM, AMJ, MJJ, the closest ONI years (w/in 0.2C anomaly of 2018 observations for each period) are 1934, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1986, 2006, 2012. Those are all special winters in their own way. 

2018
MAM: -0.4C
AMJ: -0.1C
MJJ: +0.1C

Close Matches:
2012: -0.4, -0.2, +0.1
2006: -0.3, -0.0, -0.0
1986: -0.2, -0.1, -0.0
1976: -0.5, -0.3, -0.0
1968: -0.4, -0.0, +0.3
1967: -0.4, -0.2, +0.0
1934: -0.5, -0.3, -0.1

The lower solar years of the bunch are 2006, 1986, 1976, 1934. Last winter was very similar to 1933-34, 2005-06, and 1975-76 and 1985-86 to a lesser extent, some very active hurricane seasons, exceptionally hot/dry winters in the West, and 1986 had the huge SOI drop in February when ENSO was still pretty cold. So a blend of 1934, 1976, 1986, 2006 is probably worth looking at nationally. My idea for winter has been to have weak El Nino, Nino 1.2 colder than 3.4, low solar, the cold AMO ring, and to take into account "order" for ENSO, i.e. El Ninos after La Ninas. The blend of 1934, 1976, 1986, 2006 actually accomplishes that nicely if you look (I adjusted the scale to be less impressed with cold, since the four year mean is 40+ years ago). We'll have to see how it goes, but if you moved the core of the Nino to 140W in the image below, that's fairly close to what I think winter will look like. 

kh358jN.png

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we have not had a la nina winter followed by a weak positive one since 1950...we had years that were weak negatives that followed la nina or another la nina...the weekly oni went down to +0.1...flounding at best...A late Bloomer?...

winter.........DJF oni...

1956-57..........-0.2 and rising ...

1985-86..........-0.5...rising slowly...

2001-02..........-0.1...rising slowly...

2012-13..........-0.4 and steady...

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I wouldn't worry about the drop yet, this week saw Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 warm up some, so any trades originating from those regions will re-warm/prevent cooling in Nino 3.4

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4

Here is 2014 for comparison, it had a brief break in Nino 3.4 warming too.

 02JUL2014     23.6 1.4     27.0 1.0     27.8 0.4     29.1 0.3
 09JUL2014     23.0 1.1     26.5 0.6     27.6 0.3     29.1 0.3
 16JUL2014     23.1 1.5     26.2 0.6     27.4 0.2     29.1 0.4
 23JUL2014     22.9 1.6     26.0 0.5     27.1-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30JUL2014     21.8 0.6     25.5 0.2     26.9-0.1     29.0 0.3
 06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4

2012 was actually warmer at this time, before massively reversing.

 25JUL2012     22.0 0.7     26.4 1.0     27.7 0.6     28.9 0.1
 01AUG2012     21.6 0.5     26.1 0.9     27.6 0.6     29.0 0.3
 08AUG2012     20.9 0.0     25.9 0.8     27.7 0.8     29.1 0.4
 15AUG2012     20.8 0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.6     29.1 0.4
 22AUG2012     21.0 0.4     25.5 0.5     27.4 0.6     29.1 0.4

2006 is somewhat similar.

 05JUL2006     22.2 0.1     26.0 0.1     27.5 0.1     29.0 0.1
 12JUL2006     22.0 0.2     25.8 0.0     27.3 0.0     29.0 0.2
 19JUL2006     22.3 0.8     25.8 0.2     27.3 0.1     29.1 0.3
 26JUL2006     22.0 0.7     25.7 0.3     27.3 0.2     29.2 0.4
 02AUG2006     21.9 0.8     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.2     29.2 0.5
 09AUG2006     21.7 0.8     25.3 0.2     27.1 0.2     29.1 0.4

as it 1994.

 06JUL1994     21.9-0.1     25.6-0.3     27.4 0.1     29.3 0.5
 13JUL1994     21.3-0.4     25.2-0.5     27.3 0.1     29.4 0.6
 20JUL1994     20.9-0.6     25.1-0.4     27.4 0.2     29.5 0.8
 27JUL1994     20.8-0.5     24.8-0.6     27.2 0.1     29.4 0.6
 03AUG1994     20.1-1.0     24.5-0.8     27.3 0.3     29.4 0.7

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Honestly, after playing around the extended data, I like 1934-35 (not an El Nino), 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07 as the winter blend for the PDO, AMO, El Nino strength, Modoki structure, solar conditions, ENSO order, and my local weather this Summer. It all fits. The Modoki structure comes to +0.26 in that setup, but I think it'd actually be weaker than that, even with Nino 3.4 much warmer than Nino 1.2, because the area east of the Philippines is included in the Modoki calculation. It's BOX A-(0.5*BOX B)-(0.5*BOX C).

If you plug in the blend of those Octobers SSTs into my Modoki calculator, it gives these anomalies to get the Modoki structure:

BOX A: +0.592

BOX B: +0.478

Box C: +0.528

Modoki: +0.088 - much lower than 2009, mainly because Box A (~Nino 3.4) was warmer in 2009-10 and Box C (W. Pac) was much colder.

This will change, but the blend looks quite close to now in the N. Hem:

9fV5CiQ.png

FAE9p6Z.png

hLMDa8u.png

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And that's what we call Gamechanger. 

 10-14 days of General conditions like that is all it takes to completely modify the subsurface. 

 

Doesn't mean it will all surface. 

 

But a huge warm blob will form if that pans out. 

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png

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14 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Subsurface is La Nina'ish. There's pretty much no chance of El Nino at this point. 

 

 

Lol...are you serious? Weak modoki looks most likely at this point.

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40 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Subsurface is La Nina'ish. There's pretty much no chance of El Nino at this point. 

Sir please try and elaborate when you make posts like this...what are you basing this prediction on? (And how are you so sure this early?)

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3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Plot subsurface of La Nina events and we'll swee a warm west.cold easy. this is now. It's like -0.3 and dropping. 

 

I suggest you follow Eric Webber on Twitter. Very helpful. Current observations not exactly telling of ENSO conditions in 4 months...can change quickly

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31 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

I suggest you follow Eric Webber on Twitter. Very helpful. Current observations not exactly telling of ENSO conditions in 4 months...can change quickly

*Eric Webb (I just looked him up...couldn't find him at first until I saw "Webb", lol)

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On 8/6/2018 at 9:36 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Assessing an ENSO call in mid summer?

This is what moderators are for.

I was mostly just reaffirming or finalizing my call, not so much assessing. Sometimes I do that so I can't change my mind again later.

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European last August had the right idea for Fall/Winter/Spring after showing an El Nino in July 2017 for that winter. This year, it has corrected to a weak El Nino for winter. Every single run of the model has borderline El Nino to moderate El Nino conditions for Fall...so yeah. The dotted line is the verification from last year.

xRmyhJY.png

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23 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

*Eric Webb (I just looked him up...couldn't find him at first until I saw "Webb", lol)

Lol...whoops. Eric Webb runs Webber Weather. Sorry about that.

 

Keep in mind that a weak CP El Nino (modoki) & a weak East based La Nina can have similar atmospheric responses. 

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