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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

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The SOI has dropped pretty massively the last two days. I agree about California, there are some signs showing the SW getting a lot of precipitation in Jan. 

The newest Canadian model is in. Here are the trends. The cold in California makes sense to me given the amount of storminess that seems to be coming. NE trended drier. SW colder.

xIeguDJ.png

yvkEwoI.png

Here is February. Vastly warmer/drier. Dec SOI doesn't have much correation on Jan temps/precip for whatever reason. Tends to show up in February. Might be seeing that below.

Egrhfp0.png

ZnTmpqK.png

Canadian has also trended to a much weaker El Nino, which is interesting.

apaXPg1.png

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Dec subsurface for 100-180W was officially +1.13. Two easy strong blends for January: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

I can't use ESRL, but here are some anomalies v. 1951-2010 highs. I would say this first blend is close to the new Canadian I listed above. This blend tries to focus most on Dec.

Year Oct Nov Dec
1986 0.95 0.52 0.97
2015 1.91 1.78 1.20
2015 1.91 1.78 1.20
Mean 1.59 1.36 1.12
2018 1.58 1.35 1.13

Jan

1987 2016 2016 Mean Anomaly
Boston 35.6 39.5 39.5 38.2 1.9
JAX 63.5 61.8 61.8 62.4 -2.3
Bismarck 31.9 26.8 26.8 28.5 8.1
Chicago 32.2 31.7 31.7 31.9 1.5
ABQ 46.1 47.5 47.5 47.0 -0.7
Seattle 45.7 49.1 49.1 48.0 2.6
San Diego 64.1 65.5 65.5 65.0 -0.5

This is the other blend. Produces a colder NE, warmer SW. Of course, it looks very cold here short term, and less like the Canadian.

Year

Oct Nov Dec
2018 1.58 1.36 1.13
1982 2.07 1.92 1.45
1986 0.95 0.52 0.97
1991 1.41 1.22 1.71
2002 1.72 1.58 0.74
2002 1.72 1.58 0.74
Mean 1.57 1.36 1.12

 

 

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Boom. There goes the dynamite.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11
3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31
2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48
1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66
31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67
30 Dec 2018 1010.45 1005.45 6.64 9.46 4.50
29 Dec 2018 1011.15 1004.35 15.98 9.44 4.16

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1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Boom. There goes the dynamite.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11
3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31
2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48
1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66
31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67
30 Dec 2018 1010.45 1005.45 6.64 9.46 4.50
29 Dec 2018 1011.15 1004.35 15.98 9.44 4.16

What does that mean, exactly?

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15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What does that mean, exactly?

Not much. SOI is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. U-wind anomalies in the Trop. Pac. (particularly west and central) can tell you quite a bit more about where ENSO is headed.

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I find it is a pretty good indicator for the storm track in the SW, if you wait about 10 days after a 10 point+ drop within 1-2 days. The - to - drops tend seem to be better storms for the whole country than the + to -, or + to + 10 point drops. It also does tie in to what the MJO will do, but these things are connected anyway.

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On December 16, 2018 at 9:24 PM, Zach’s Pop said:

Boston could get over 40” of snow in a three week period easily this winter. In fact I bet they do. Hopefully Albuquerque gets 4” of snow the entire winter. 

Just let him go. I've long since given up. Its going to be an awesome modoki winter, and long range guidance is beginning to reflect what we knew several months ago.

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10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just let him go. I've long since given up. Its going to be an awesome modoki winter, and long range guidance is beginning to reflect what we knew several months ago.

Boston is at 0.2", half of Tuscon, and fourth lowest on record through 1892 according to NOAA. The range in total snowfall for Boston for the bottom 20 years on 1/5 is 9 inches to 47 inches if you go back to 1892, sorted by totals as of 1/5. Other than 2014-15, which had 100+ inches Jan 6-May 31, with the super PDO, and high solar, every Boston winter has had under 76 inches of snow between January 6th and May 31st. The middle 90% of years will see 10-70 inches, but of course, you can see from the list below that the bottom 20 years through 1/5 are clustered in the bottom 60% for 1/6 to 5/31. I do think this period coming up is snowier for the NE, but really...how could it not be? I wasn't expecting you guys to finish with five inches of snow.

Final Snowfall in Boston, 1892-2018, by totals as of 1/5 of that winter. These 20 years have a mean snowfall of 27 inches.

1999-2000 - 36.4
1891-1892 - 46.8
1957-1958 - 44.7
1943-1944 - 27.7
1927-1928 - 20.8
1925-1926 - 38.0
2006-2007 - 17.1
1998-1999 - 25.6
2015-2016 - 36.1
1900-1901 - 17.5
2011-2012 - 9.3
1913-1914 - 39.0
1990-1991 - 19.1
1953-1954 - 23.6
1935-1936 - 29.2
1994-1995 - 14.9
1931-1932 - 18.4
1973-1974 - 36.9
1979-1980 - 12.5
1952-1953 - 29.8

Whatever happens by winter end, I hope you'll at least recognize that the data has had some validity in showing that low solar El Ninos are not great for snowfall for Boston overall.

Anyway, with the ESRL stuff still down, I wanted to show what winter looks like so far. It looks like a blend of where 1991-92 and 1997-98 finished up so far. 

0DCZO9i.png

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Boston is at 0.2", half of Tuscon, and fourth lowest on record through 1892 according to NOAA. The range in total snowfall for Boston for the bottom 20 years on 1/5 is 9 inches to 47 inches if you go back to 1892, sorted by totals as of 1/5. Other than 2014-15, which had 100+ inches Jan 6-May 31, with the super PDO, and high solar, every Boston winter has had under 76 inches of snow between January 6th and May 31st. The middle 90% of years will see 10-70 inches, but of course, you can see from the list below that the bottom 20 years through 1/5 are clustered in the bottom 60% for 1/6 to 5/31. I do think this period coming up is snowier for the NE, but really...how could it not be? I wasn't expecting you guys to finish with five inches of snow.

Final Snowfall in Boston, 1892-2018, by totals as of 1/5 of that winter. These 20 years have a mean snowfall of 27 inches.

1999-2000 - 36.4
1891-1892 - 46.8
1957-1958 - 44.7
1943-1944 - 27.7
1927-1928 - 20.8
1925-1926 - 38.0
2006-2007 - 17.1
1998-1999 - 25.6
2015-2016 - 36.1
1900-1901 - 17.5
2011-2012 - 9.3
1913-1914 - 39.0
1990-1991 - 19.1
1953-1954 - 23.6
1935-1936 - 29.2
1994-1995 - 14.9
1931-1932 - 18.4
1973-1974 - 36.9
1979-1980 - 12.5
1952-1953 - 29.8

Whatever happens by winter end, I hope you'll at least recognize that the data has had some validity in showing that low solar El Ninos are not great for snowfall for Boston overall.

Anyway, with the ESRL stuff still down, I wanted to show what winter looks like so far. It looks like a blend of where 1991-92 and 1997-98 finished up so far. 

0DCZO9i.png

Can you run those numbers for January 2015 at the same point in time?  Also January 2013 and January 1969.  Thanks.   I’ve heard you are tacoman.  True?  I always liked tacoman.

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4 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Boston is at 0.2", half of Tuscon, and fourth lowest on record through 1892 according to NOAA. The range in total snowfall for Boston for the bottom 20 years on 1/5 is 9 inches to 47 inches if you go back to 1892, sorted by totals as of 1/5. Other than 2014-15, which had 100+ inches Jan 6-May 31, with the super PDO, and high solar, every Boston winter has had under 76 inches of snow between January 6th and May 31st. The middle 90% of years will see 10-70 inches, but of course, you can see from the list below that the bottom 20 years through 1/5 are clustered in the bottom 60% for 1/6 to 5/31. I do think this period coming up is snowier for the NE, but really...how could it not be? I wasn't expecting you guys to finish with five inches of snow.

Final Snowfall in Boston, 1892-2018, by totals as of 1/5 of that winter. These 20 years have a mean snowfall of 27 inches.

1999-2000 - 36.4
1891-1892 - 46.8
1957-1958 - 44.7
1943-1944 - 27.7
1927-1928 - 20.8
1925-1926 - 38.0
2006-2007 - 17.1
1998-1999 - 25.6
2015-2016 - 36.1
1900-1901 - 17.5
2011-2012 - 9.3
1913-1914 - 39.0
1990-1991 - 19.1
1953-1954 - 23.6
1935-1936 - 29.2
1994-1995 - 14.9
1931-1932 - 18.4
1973-1974 - 36.9
1979-1980 - 12.5
1952-1953 - 29.8

Whatever happens by winter end, I hope you'll at least recognize that the data has had some validity in showing that low solar El Ninos are not great for snowfall for Boston overall.

Anyway, with the ESRL stuff still down, I wanted to show what winter looks like so far. It looks like a blend of where 1991-92 and 1997-98 finished up so far. 

0DCZO9i.png

:lol:

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36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

:lol:

When exactly is this 80-90 inches of snowfall you've been touting supposed to come? I see maybe an inch to three through 1/10. You're running +9 in January after a warm December. 

Do you think maybe the fact that out of 120 years only one had 75+ from this point on matters or are you just going to keep laughing at me even though my numbers have been closer for temps, snowfall and precip, and national trends than yours since Oct?

2JRiQkR.png

You've got 85 inches to go. Good luck.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Can you run those numbers for January 2015 at the same point in time?  Also January 2013 and January 1969.  Thanks.   I’ve heard you are tacoman.  True?  I always liked tacoman.

I remember tacoman, but he isn't me.

Boston had 4.2" through 1/5 2015, 3.8" through 1/5 2013, you had 5.6" through 1/5 1969. I don't really doubt a fairly large turn around is coming, I'm just trying to point out that Ray is laughing at me when historically you have - *literally* - less than a 1/100 shot at getting 80" in Boston with 0.2" through 1/5, given 99% of years have under 75" from this point on.

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14 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

When exactly is this 80-90 inches of snowfall you've been touting supposed to come? I see maybe an inch to three through 1/10. You're running +9 in January after a warm December. 

Do you think maybe the fact that out of 120 years only one had 75+ from this point on matters or are you just going to keep laughing at me even though my numbers have been closer for temps, snowfall and precip, and national trends than yours since Oct?

2JRiQkR.png

You've got 85 inches to go. Good luck.

:lol:

My call so far has done very well..amongst the best I have seen for the northeast.

See you at verification.

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On 1/2/2019 at 11:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:
Here is how the Eastern Mass Weather thoughts laid out on 11/12/18 for the month of December fared.
 
 
December%2BForecast.png
 
"The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England".
 
NAO.thumb.gif.0c1b15582ea58203b2b55d7a185f0fbf.gif
 
The period of negative NAO did indeed materialize near the onset of the month, but unfortunately the system was forced well to the south of New England by overwhelming confluence.
 
"The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray". 
 
The decline of a robust period of PNA to begin the month coupled with the eroding negative NAO to deliver the goods for the southern mid atl and southeast. 
 
PNA.thumb.gif.e2f4b2036ee6025cc9a2a4b01f0a6ce7.gif
 
 
"The blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season".
 
 
Temperatures should average out near normal for most of the east by month's end, biased colder early, and milder late. If anything, slightly above average for the mid atlantic, and below average in New England".
 
This was a good call, as evidenced by the monthly departure map below, however truth be told, the gradient was a bit further the north across New England than has been anticipated.
 
Dec.thumb.png.492caeccb1212f176e00e56b2f95613b.png
 
Additionally, although a temperature forecast was not put forth for the entire country, the warmth especially across the upper midwest was likely more intense than would have been expected, as the +EPO interlude and associated Pac jet were not expected.
EPO.thumb.png.a3eec73ea9c6553e3756244821a865f0.png
 
 
 
 
This may be due, at least in part, to the MJO amplification through phases 4-6 that was incited by the SSW, which also was unexpected. Although a technical SSW was not forecast, the anticipated evolution for the rest of the winter is not impacted.
In fact, it only serves to further buttress confidence on the emergence of NAO blocking later in the month of January .
 
 
 
January%2BForecaast.png
"The NAO blocking breaks down in time for the holidays, go figure, however around this time the Pacific side grows more supportive, so this mid winter break will not be as prolonged, nor as mild as last season, especially across New England. The month should average anywhere from 1-2 degrees above normal across New England, and 2-3 degrees above normal beneath the 40th parallel. The month of January looks a lot like 2015 and 2005, and we expect a similar evolution. Complete with a monster Archambault event anywhere from January 20th to February 8th, after which the Atlantic couples with the Pacific to induce cross polar flow and set the stage for a memorable February". 

 

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I remember tacoman, but he isn't me.

Boston had 4.2" through 1/5 2015, 3.8" through 1/5 2013, you had 5.6" through 1/5 1969. I don't really doubt a fairly large turn around is coming, I'm just trying to point out that Ray is laughing at me when historically you have - *literally* - less than a 1/100 shot at getting 80" in Boston with 0.2" through 1/5, given 99% of years have under 75" from this point on.

Thanks for those numbers.  Someone on our forum implied you were tacoman.  Truthfully your writing style is different so I had some skepticism.

in 2015,Boston got an additional 106.8 inches.  In 2013, 57.6.  In 1969 it was 48.2.   So it can turn around big time here and in our current climate regime we seem capable of having stronger storms.   If we got 20 inches for the rest of January, 30 for February. And 20 for  March, Ray comes close but still falls short.   The bad breaks (measurement 11/15 and bad luck 12/1-15) really minimized Ray’s chance of hitting his numbers.  With that said, I’m rooting for it....lol.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

You can play games all you want, but a blend of 1953, 1976 and 1977 looks like nothing like what has happened this winter nationally or in Boston. As an example, the blend of those years was very cold in the Plains, and Bismarck is running around +8F winter to date. It's amazing how different you ended up from what I had given you used two of the same analogs.

12/1-1/4 1953-54 in Boston: 46.9F average high. 0.5" snow

12/1-1/4 1976-77 in Boston: 36.7F average high. 17.5" snow

12/1-1/4 1977-78 in Boston: 39.5F average high. 9.0" snow

Means: 41.0F - 3.4F too cold. 9.0" snow

12/1-1/4 2018-19 in Boston: 44.4F average high, 0.2" snow

This is what I had - since someone suggested I analyze what I put out -

12/1-1/4, 1953-54: 46.9F, 0.5"

12/1-1/4, 1976-77: 36.7F, 17.5"

12/1-1/4: 1986-87: 41.1F, 7.1"

12/1-1/4: 1994-95: 44.7F, 1.5"

12/1-1/4: 1994-95: 44.7F, 1.5"

12/1-1/4: 2006-07: 47.8F, 0.8"

Means: 43.7F - 0.7F too cold. 4.8" snow. Not great for snow, but given how close the national maps have looked so far, I'll take it.

For what it's worth, the cold in the West so far this month is consistent with what I posted earlier about the +NAO leading to cold in the SW in January.

Drhd1e8UUAAh7py.jpg:large

LuGNURj.png

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What games? The month of December went exactly as I had outlined...complete with predicted temp departure, cold first half, mild second half, grinch storm, gradient pattern and early winter storm, which was suppressed. 

I was pretty forthcoming about the fact that I didn't anticipate the PAC jet, which was a short term byproduct of the unexpected SSW. And the fact that figured we would have received some snow from that storm that whiffed.

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Apparently when you select an analog, you expect the progression of that season to mirror the current season.  That is not how I use them. I include an analog because I believe that there is an element(s) of that season that has a great deal of predictive value for at least a portion of the coming season. The greatest challenge of seasonal forecasting is not selecting the analogs, but rather extracting the value from each analog. This December was not as cold or snowy as 1977, nor did I anticipate that to be the case. 1978 is included because of ENSO and the second half of the winter. This is why I produce a narrative outline explicitly specifying what I anticipate as far as a sensible evolution of the coming season, which you chose to ignore and compare this December to a composite of some of my analogs, instead.

I'm not sure what else to tell you....I predicted a near normal temp departure, which is what we got...warmer south vs normal, colder north. Did I expect more snow than next to nothing so far, yes.

I don't do national outlooks, but I volunteered that it was warmer than I would have expected due to the Pac jet. I did not expect much Dec neg NAO....just a little early, and that worked out. While we utilized some the same analog seasons, we obviously keyed in on different features because we affixed value differently.

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