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21 hours ago, Zach’s Pop said:

You seem so intent on the northeast being warm. And big deal about what JB says. Yesterday you used CPC maps. Today’s it’s Bastardi. Tomorrow it will be whatever else you can come up with.  I have seen you walk back that comment a couple of times claiming you really aren’t calling for it to be that warm. Another fact that might interest you is I don’t live in the northeast. But I believe someone up there must have called you a poopy head one time because you sure like to mention warmth up there. Your snowfall call for Boston is going to bust big time. And when it does I hope you are man enough to admit it. 

You keep saying I will be wrong. What if I'm right? Boston is at 0.1" officially. Doesn't look wrong to me. Boston has never had more than 60 inches in a low-solar El Nino back to 1892. I documented that extensively, and most of those years, all but two, 14/16, are under 45".  1977, 2002, 2014, all had high solar. 1995 was a La Nina with low solar. It isn't the right pattern for Boston to get heavy snow. 

I've mentioned before the SOI in Sept-Nov is a good indicator for December. Looks good to me! 

SOI Sept Oct Nov
1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7
2018 -8.5 2.6 -0.9

0KNaG49.png

Does reality matter to you or not? I'll be waiting for your answer at the end of the month when the NE comes in warm. You still haven't answered whether you think its even possible for the NE to be warm in December in an El Nino, even though almost all of the recent ones are. Dirty little secret? The Cold El Ninos were already cold in the NE by this point. I know you don't care about reality, so this won't matter to you, but here is what the cold El Ninos look like in the NE by this point in Dec -

d9BQgD5.png

02KKnSJ.png

Depending on the area, I think just about the whole NE is +1 to +5, given what is coming later in the month, against 1951-2010 highs.

 

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In fairness, BOS is on record with 0.1 because the guy they use in Winthrop as the official measurer literally forgot the midnight reading and then it rained.   It’s pretty much assumed the actual number was probably 2.5 or so based in spotters in the area.  I live 10 miles away and received 6.3 inches for this areas earliest decent snow since 2012.  So you may be right in the end but using a bad measure (DC/BWI/NYC/the Boston area) got a lot more snow than expected at this point.  It’s been cold since mid October ala 2002.  The upcoming patten is not unlike December 2002 despite the silly 5 day snapshot charts.  I bet if you run 12/5-20 you’d get the same results you above.  We’ll see the results in the end. 

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13 hours ago, weathafella said:

In fairness, BOS is on record with 0.1 because the guy they use in Winthrop as the official measurer literally forgot the midnight reading and then it rained.   It’s pretty much assumed the actual number was probably 2.5 or so based in spotters in the area.  I live 10 miles away and received 6.3 inches for this areas earliest decent snow since 2012.  So you may be right in the end but using a bad measure (DC/BWI/NYC/the Boston area) got a lot more snow than expected at this point.  It’s been cold since mid October ala 2002.  The upcoming patten is not unlike December 2002 despite the silly 5 day snapshot charts.  I bet if you run 12/5-20 you’d get the same results you above.  We’ll see the results in the end. 

I love to debate...but I have given up the goat on that one.

I'll be laying in the weeds to post bump over the next few months.

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17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

You keep saying I will be wrong. What if I'm right? Boston is at 0.1" officially. Doesn't look wrong to me. Boston has never had more than 60 inches in a low-solar El Nino back to 1892. I documented that extensively, and most of those years, all but two, 14/16, are under 45".  1977, 2002, 2014, all had high solar. 1995 was a La Nina with low solar. It isn't the right pattern for Boston to get heavy snow. 

I've mentioned before the SOI in Sept-Nov is a good indicator for December. Looks good to me! 

SOI Sept Oct Nov
1953 -13.0 -0.3 -2.7
2018 -8.5 2.6 -0.9

0KNaG49.png

Does reality matter to you or not? I'll be waiting for your answer at the end of the month when the NE comes in warm. You still haven't answered whether you think its even possible for the NE to be warm in December in an El Nino, even though almost all of the recent ones are. Dirty little secret? The Cold El Ninos were already cold in the NE by this point. I know you don't care about reality, so this won't matter to you, but here is what the cold El Ninos look like in the NE by this point in Dec -

d9BQgD5.png

02KKnSJ.png

Depending on the area, I think just about the whole NE is +1 to +5, given what is coming later in the month, against 1951-2010 highs.

 

Why don't you just say + 1 to + 15  it's  a  good way to cover your ass  and I will say -3 to +5

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9 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

Why don't you just say + 1 to + 15  it's  a  good way to cover your ass  and I will say -3 to +5

Why are you people so emotionally invested in this? Don't you have something better to do with your time like a functional adult would? The joke about this is all you seem to love what Ray put out, but he used two of the same analogs I did, 1953 and 1976, just a month later, and he said in October that he read my outlook and disagreed with it, which is fine. But it's like....you're arguing over nonsense given that he liked 40% of the years I used in my forecast - 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006. For 12/1-12/6 Boston is 39.8F in 2018 for the average temperature. In my years, Boston is 41.3F. I don't get all the hate, I'm doing well so far. See for yourselves. Ray had 1953, 1976, 1977 which is also close, 37.3F since he used similar years.  It's not as close as mine so far, but its not bad, it's 2.5F too cold for him so far, 1.5F too warm for me so far. 

GGoGmG3.png

1931-12-06 37.2 0
1932-12-06 51.1 0
1933-12-06 34.2 0
1934-12-06 41.8 0
1935-12-06 25.2 0
1936-12-06 33.2 0
1937-12-06 33.0 0
1938-12-06 36.5 0
1939-12-06 43.6 0
1940-12-06 24.5 0
1941-12-06 43.0 0
1942-12-06 34.3 0
1943-12-06 38.3 0
1944-12-06 30.7 0
1945-12-06 32.3 0
1946-12-06 34.2 0
1947-12-06 34.4 0
1948-12-06 43.7 0
1949-12-06 33.6 0
1950-12-06 44.0 0
1951-12-06 46.5 0
1952-12-06 35.4 0
1953-12-06 45.2 0
1954-12-06 27.3 0
1955-12-06 35.6 0
1956-12-06 34.8 0
1957-12-06 34.7 0
1958-12-06 32.4 0
1959-12-06 42.7 0
1960-12-06 38.5 0
1961-12-06 39.7 0
1962-12-06 44.9 0
1963-12-06 32.1 0
1964-12-06 29.0 0
1965-12-06 39.3 0
1966-12-06 31.4 0
1967-12-06 33.3 0
1968-12-06 43.2 0
1969-12-06 31.7 0
1970-12-06 39.1 0
1971-12-06 30.1 0
1972-12-06 37.8 0
1973-12-06 44.0 0
1974-12-06 36.5 0
1975-12-06 39.8 0
1976-12-06 25.3 0
1977-12-06 41.4 0
1978-12-06 39.5 0
1979-12-06 38.3 0
1980-12-06 36.4 0
1981-12-06 38.5 0
1982-12-06 55.2 0
1983-12-06 36.5 0
1984-12-06 39.2 0
1985-12-06 35.0 0
1986-12-06 38.4 0
1987-12-06 37.8 0
1988-12-06 36.7 0
1989-12-06 23.5 0
1990-12-06 41.8 0
1991-12-06 36.8 0
1992-12-06 36.8 0
1993-12-06 40.3 0
1994-12-06 48.3 0
1995-12-06 38.1 0
1996-12-06 41.3 0
1997-12-06 38.7 0
1998-12-06 51.4 0
1999-12-06 43.7 0
2000-12-06 31.1 0
2001-12-06 54.1 0
2002-12-06 27.8 0
2003-12-06 28.8 0
2004-12-06 39.8 0
2005-12-06 34.3 0
2006-12-06 42.6 0
2007-12-06 27.4 0
2008-12-06 41.4 0
2009-12-06 43.9 0
2010-12-06 38.8 0
2011-12-06 46.3 0
2012-12-06 41.8 0
2013-12-06 42.4 0
2014-12-06 40.8 0
2015-12-06 44.4 0
2016-12-06 40.8 0
2017-12-06 42.6 0

For what its worth, some folks are saying +15. Go read my forecast if you want to troll me. It's in this thread. I like how no one had any issues with 1953 being similar like I said it would be in November. No smart ass comments on that from the dumb ass brigade? 

The map below from Michael Ventrice is essentially a replication of the Euro weeklies that I see everyone hugging so tightly when its forecasting cold. Do you have anything to add to this or are you all just going to keep attacking me until we hit the end of the month and the NE ends up being warm in December like I've been saying since October? I know its cooled somewhat, but at the end of 12/6 Boston and much of the NE are still near to above normal, and the warm up is still coming, whether the trolls approve of it or not.

In any case, our "Modoki" El Nino looked pretty similar to my analogs for Sept-Nov, with its consistent temperature gradient from East-West.

73TProW.png

It isn't really shocking that a warm up is coming, given the convection that has flared up by India and the impending surfacing of huge warmth in Nino 1.2

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

 

 

 

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Raindance, I have never contended that your analog set has zero value because it does....just because you, I or anyone has a given season on their analog set doesn't have to mean that they think the coming season will be an exact replica. I def. find value in 2006, for instance, but also happen to think that this season will be remembered as having played out much differently in the end. I won't derail the thread, as I have outlined my rationale in the outlook.

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