Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looking at things today, the El Nino will probably wane in late Winter. 

Usually how it works-

[raindancewx]

What happens nationally after a cold November in an El Nino like this one is pretty interesting. Years with similar looking cold by magnitude and spatial setup have something of a warm signal overall. I excluded years where the core of the cold was not over the Plains in Nov like this year. 1957, 1969, 1976, 2002, 2014 are kind of similar but with some major issues so I didn't use them. I made sure to pick years to put the core of cold over MO/KS like it has been this Nov with the East/West coasts warmer than the middle of the US.

Are there any tendencies in the six years for December? I would say, yes several.

1) FL is warm in 5/6 years.

2) NM/AZ and Maine are cold in 5/6 years.

3) The Northern Plains are very warm or very cold, in 3/6 years each. I take that as a pattern flip, and a near average signal. Worth noting, two of three cold years had -PDO values in November, so that's worth watching. I wouldn't be shocked if the cold continued in the Northern Plains until mid-month and then flipped for a while.

Generally, I don't like the look of 1951 and 1968, so I'm going to throw them out. This is the blend for December for 1940, 1972, 1986, 1991 nationally. The CFS has Dec 1940/1991 essentially.

[Maestrobjwa]

50 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

What happens nationally after a cold November in an El Nino like this one is pretty interesting. Years with similar looking cold by magnitude and spatial setup have something of a warm signal overall. I excluded years where the core of the cold was not over the Plains in Nov like this year. 1957, 1969, 1976, 2002, 2014 are kind of similar but with some major issues so I didn't use them. I made sure to pick years to put the core of cold over MO/KS like it has been this Nov with the East/West coasts warmer than the middle of the US.

Are there any tendencies in the six years for December? I would say, yes several.

1) FL is warm in 5/6 years.

2) NM/AZ and Maine are cold in 5/6 years.

3) The Northern Plains are very warm or very cold, in 3/6 years each. I take that as a pattern flip, and a near average signal. Worth noting, two of three cold years had -PDO values in November, so that's worth watching. I wouldn't be shocked if the cold continued in the Northern Plains until mid-month and then flipped for a while.

Generally, I don't like the look of 1951 and 1968, so I'm going to throw them out. This is the blend for December for 1940, 1972, 1986, 1991 nationally. The CFS has Dec 1940/1991 essentially.

I'm always bothered when I see those years that were crappy winters in my neck of the woods used...all 4 of those were crap (as in no snow, lol) Please tell there's something different about this year! (how were the AO/NAO and such those years?) Now some of the years you threw out...57-58, 2002, 2014 were great! 

[raindancewx]

The NAO was negative in Nov 1951, and then Feb-Mar 1952, it was negative each month in 1968-69 (Oct-Mar), it was fairly neutral in 1972-73 (somewhat low in Feb), the -NAO showed up in Jan-Feb in 1986-87, and 1991-92 had a -NAO in January. My guess is the NAO was volatile in 1940-41 too. T

The more interesting thing is that most of these winters are fairly high to very high for solar, except 1986-87.

This is the composite of the cold years I threw out for Nov and Dec, in general, the cold is centered too far East, on the Mississippi, so places like Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota that are frigid this November are too warm in those years. The SE is also too cold, and the West is too warm.

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data):

11/20: 0.72 / 0.49

11/19: 0.67 / 0.53

11/18: 0.65 / 0.51

11/17: 0.60 / 0.51

11/16: 0.59 / 0.44

[griteater]

On 11/19/2018 at 11:03 AM, griteater said:

We should see another round of warming in Nino 3.4 at the end of the month and into early Dec when the MJO related westerlies move out into the central Pacific

High chance these upcoming westerly wind anomalies east of the dateline will lead to a solid spike in Nino 3.4 (image from @mjventrice)

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, griteater said:

High chance these upcoming westerly wind anomalies east of the dateline will lead to a solid spike in Nino 3.4 (image from @mjventrice)

I think this next round of warming will bring us to peak.

[raindancewx]

This is just my guess, since I don't know if this wave will verify at this level, but it seems to me like the MJO will be reaching the "warm for the NE" phases later in December. Maybe not 4-5-6, but I think 2-3 are fairly likely given the strength of the wave forecast. Phase 2 seems like it would be around 12/10? That's enough time for a warm month in the East.

[griteater]

^ Raindance is dying to somehow get it warm in the east 

I agree with your thought though on the cycling of the tropical forcing and potential impacts. Seems like it just wants to be cold though. We’ll see

[raindancewx]

It's not that I'm dying to get it warm in the East, I just think its coming. At least for a bit. I had most of the East cold in winter if you go back in the thread and look at the outlook I linked in October, but I did have a warm Dec for a lot of areas.

November isn't over yet but the tentative SOI matches for Sept-Nov (big -SOI in Sept, near neutral Oct/Nov) are 1990, 1953, 1980, 1952, 1932, 1987.

Last year, the top SOI matches for Sept-Nov were these years - 1962, 1943, 2011, 1999, 2007, 1998

Never exact, but 1962 had the right idea for Dec 2017, warm West, cold East. Different look with the SOI matches this year. The SOI matches were all over the place last year, but show a more consistent message this year for Dec. You have 1990, 1953, 1952, 1932 and 1987 warm in the NE. It isn't that I expect +5F...but the SOI matches usually show the same signal in one or more regions in all the closest years, and I've been using the SOI for a while - you ignore it at your own peril typically. 1953 had big Nov snows in an El Nino year in places like Philadelphia in a low-solar year and was one of my winter analogs. It was warm in the NE in December. We'll see.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I don't think it's coming, the trend since July has been greater than El Nino. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

5 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I don't think it's coming, the trend since July has been greater than El Nino. 

Exactly what's not coming?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Warmer conditions in the eastern US. 

[weathafella]

On 11/21/2018 at 3:32 PM, raindancewx said:

This is just my guess, since I don't know if this wave will verify at this level, but it seems to me like the MJO will be reaching the "warm for the NE" phases later in December. Maybe not 4-5-6, but I think 2-3 are fairly likely given the strength of the wave forecast. Phase 2 seems like it would be around 12/10? That's enough time for a warm month in the East.

Actually, and admittedly the guidance that far out may not be stellar but most has it back to the cod before it re-emerges on the left side of the circle.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Warmer conditions in the eastern US. 

 

Oh. Okay. Yeah, I agree. I wish I knew how to explain why.

[raindancewx]

It also looks like the Nino 1.2 subsurface heat burst is due to emerge in December.  

The warmth is still spreading East pretty clearly in a visual sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On November 21, 2018 at 7:58 PM, griteater said:

^ Raindance is dying to somehow get it warm in the east 

I agree with your thought though on the cycling of the tropical forcing and potential impacts. Seems like it just wants to be cold though. We’ll see

I agree with him that we are going to be a mild pattern for a couple of weeks...that isn't really debatable, I don't think...what is debatable is whether the month of December will end up mild in the aggregate...I'll bet it breaks pretty close to climo.

[WidreMann]

Looks like a weak east-based Nino to me. Whatever Modoki/central look we had went away a while ago. Whether this matters for the eastern US, given that it's a weak Nino, is probably debatable.

GFS and Euro ensembles don't warm us up too much the first week of December and they keep hinting at transitory but significant cold patterns. I'll take that over big SE ridge for three weeks.

[Tom]

I don't post often, I read plenty wish there were some others that followed that philosophy.....Those who question Modiki El Nino and cold northeast you know who  you are hope you eat your crow and you man up in March when you are wrong....

[raindancewx]

My hunch is this pattern for the past few weeks, storminess, blocking, cold almost everywhere but CA and FL, will show up for a while in late January or February. It just comes down to the pervasiveness of it really. I'm actually pretty happy with I had so far, you had ice and snow storms this month in the NE, cold centered in the middle of the US, early snow in the South, and the West Coast warm too. Those ideas showed up nationally in 1953, 1986, which were in my analogs from October. The dryness in the SW after a wet October is like 2006 here, which is part of why I used 2006 primarily as a "precipitation" analog. 

The CFS for what its worth, after showing a cold NE in December, has switched back to almost the entire country being warm, which is an outcome that has happened historically after similar El Nino Novembers with the cold centered on the Plains. This is time frame, right before the next month, when it starts to show skill.

If you look back on the BOM site for the MJO and what the European MJO forecast is predicting, the MJO should be around the 8/1 transition for December. These are the years when the MJO began December in phase 8 or phase 1 back to 1975: 2007, 1997, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1983.

Of these, 1997, 1991 are El Ninos, but have issues. 2007, 1983 are low solar. The blend of the years actually looks a lot like this November. With the major caveat that this event is nowhere near as extreme as 2007 or 1997, the blend of both Novembers is actually a fairly close MJO, SST, and solar match, and looks similar to what the similar Sep-Nov SOI years and current CFS forecasts show to some extent. My guess is 1990/2007 (x2)/1997 (x2) as a blend, or just 2007/1997 adjusted for the colder Atlantic and different PDO look, is probably not terrible as a guess for December. You really don't have many warm-ENSO choices for December with low solar and similar MJO timing.

This blend to me is 2F too cold for the whole West and too warm in the SE by 1-2F (PDO issue), but for being an MJO only blend, I think it'll be close to Dec.

[raindancewx]

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This El Nino is twice as strong as last years La Nina

[weathafella]

29 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This El Nino is twice as strong as last years La Nina

What was the strongest tri monthly last year nina vs this nino?  I think it’s awfully hard to declare after a big WWB which has a big effect on some daily reading eastern enso areas for a few days even a week or more....

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

 

I've learned a few things about this and it's too late. This will reflect into March 2019. Lag effect.

[stadiumwave]

On 11/21/2018 at 6:58 PM, griteater said:

^ Raindance is dying to somehow get it warm in the east 

I agree with your thought though on the cycling of the tropical forcing and potential impacts. Seems like it just wants to be cold though. We’ll see

 

It's driving me crazy! Constantly spinning on every forum why Siberia will sit over New Mexico & hades will sit over the east.

[griteater]

It looks like the anticipated Nino 3.4 spike has begun...

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data):

11/25: 0.98 / 0.66

11/24: 0.69 / 0.59

11/23: 0.81 / 0.69

11/22: 0.65 / 0.48

11/21: 0.71 / 0.46

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, griteater said:

It looks like the anticipated Nino 3.4 spike has begun...

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index (Daily AVHRR Data):

11/25: 0.98 / 0.66

11/24: 0.69 / 0.59

11/23: 0.81 / 0.69

11/22: 0.65 / 0.48

11/21: 0.71 / 0.46

We keep hearing about how the modoki has collapsed, and basin wide this, and east-based that, but nothing of statistical relevance seems to corroborate it. This el nino does, and has for months rated a moderately strong modoki value. Sure, region 1.2 spikes every now and then just as every season has at some point (some WWB are going to make it to the eastern zones), including 2009-2010, but this is why a tri monthly period is utilized as a proxy for ENSO intensity and structure. I'm sure modoki will wane at some point, but no one should care by the time that it does.

There is no ammunition that has yet to be spent in defense of this position, so we just need to wait for verification to deal the final blow.

[weathafella]

So I looked up Albuquerque snow and they average 10 inches a year.  Raindance-you need to get up to Santa Fe!  Albuquerque is a great place, NM is wonderful landscape.  Just not snowy-hardly ever.

[raindancewx]

November to date has a Nino 3 core (5N-5S, 150W-90W) especially relative to 2002 and 2009. 1986 is very close for the El Nino
structure. It started with the type of Modoki look we had earlier in Sept/Oct too before going to a basin-wide look. El Ninos
tend to peak in late Fall or early winter, which is why I changed my idea in Sept/Oct that this wouldn't be like 2002 or 2009.
My outlook had 1986 as one of five analogs. It looks like Nov 1986 for US weather and the El Nino setup.

When I talk about Albuquerque, it is because as a location protected by 10,000-15,000 foot mountains only certain patterns can produce extremes here for cold, heat, or precipitation. A pattern that sends shallow cold air and a pattern that sends deeper colder air down the spine of the Rockies will be completely different here. The subtropical jet can be active, but if it isn't sending impulses the right way, it won't do anything here. In that sense, Albuquerque is useful as a downwind predictor for the SE, Plains and NE. We are on the edge of the AMO and PDO dominated areas of the US for temperatures, but influenced by both for moisture and this is probably the most sensitive area of the world to El Nino development.

I'm not actually that interested in how much snow I get, the mountaintops here are snow covered from Sept to June in most years. I am interested in how well my regression for El Nino highs will do this year, and the regression said it should be cold here. So I am pleased with that. I developed the regression to figure out why some El Ninos are cold while others are not. We had 13 months in a row here with above average highs against 1951-2010 from Sept 2017-Sept 2018, so me going with a cold Fall and Winter was actually fairly ballsy here for an early Oct outlook. We tend to see our snowiest month in an El Nino cold season get 7 inches of snow, but it can be 2 or 25 in the right year, and you can get 5-10". You can get the heavy snow any time from Nov-Apr too.

Here are the weeklies - I've highlighted the El Ninos when a zone is within 0.2C of this event for the most recent week. Since 1990, the 1991 and 2006 El Ninos are closest to this week.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 20NOV1991     22.5 0.7     26.1 1.1     27.9 1.3     29.4 0.8
 23NOV1994     22.8 0.9     25.9 0.9     27.9 1.2     29.7 1.1
 19NOV1997     25.8 4.1     28.6 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.7 1.1
 20NOV2002     22.5 0.7     26.5 1.5     28.3 1.7     29.9 1.3
 24NOV2004     21.9 0.0     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.7     29.5 1.0
 22NOV2006     22.7 0.8     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.6 1.1
 18NOV2009     22.2 0.5     26.2 1.2     28.2 1.6     29.8 1.2
 19NOV2014     22.6 0.8     26.0 1.0     27.5 0.9     29.5 0.9
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8

 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 14NOV2018     22.2 0.6     25.8 0.8     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.9
 21NOV2018     22.6 0.8     26.3 1.3     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.0

All in all, I've been pretty happy with my outlook so far. Ice storms have verified in the interior NE/SE, the blizzard has verified for Nov in the Plains, we are running well above normal for snowfall here to date, and the core of the cold in the US, by anomalies is in the middle of the US. The CFS, which starts to have skill for winter at this time has this for winter. I'm sure it will be colder than this, but I doubt its completely wrong either. It has a similar look for December too. It may be seeing the MJO migrating into the warm phases for a while in late December. A jaunt through phases 2-6 would be very warm in the Northern Plains like it shows.

[WestMichigan]

20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

When I talk about Albuquerque, it is because as a location protected by 10,000-15,000 foot mountains only certain patterns can produce extremes here for cold, heat, or precipitation.

Wheeler Peak is the high point in New Mexico at 13,167 feet.  I know you are generalizing, but you might want to not get too carried away in your stats.