Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

 

Grit , you`re likely to get stuck in here for the next 4 months , it`s what the Euro seasonal sees. The Trough will end up in the east in the means D - F

 

There isn`t much that point away from this solution, anyone in the lakes SE/MA/NE should get ready to enjoy  02/03- 13/14- 14/15. 

 

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

Eric Webb‏ @webberweather

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If you don't think El Nino was coming this year or we'd slowly walk towards one later this winter you should reconsider. No amt of hand-wringing over SST thresholds changes the fact that we're already in an El Nino. The thermocline is suppressed enough to support a moderate event

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This continues to be a west-based centered Nino, I dare even say Nino 4. It's my opinion that El Nino is a driver at 180-180 vs Strong east-based events. 

[raindancewx]

CPC adjusted September up in Nino 3.4, so ASO came in at +0.4. The October value was +0.83C. Sept had been +0.22 before if you look earlier in the thread. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2018   8   26.95   26.91    0.04
2018   9   27.20   26.80    0.40
2018  10   27.58   26.75    0.83

In the 1950-2018 data, Nino 4 is second warmest on record in October (29.72C), behind only 2015 (29.84C). For actual SSTs in October in Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4, the closest objective matches are 2009, 2004, 1991, 1986, 1994, 2002. For Aug-Oct averages in each of the four zones, 1994, 2004, 2012, 2003, 1969, 1986 are closest objectively.

ASO    Nino4       3.4          3       1.2
1969    29.13    27.17    25.41    21.08
1986    28.94    27.31    25.33    21.03
1994    29.42    27.35    25.07    20.79
2003    29.01    27.08    25.27    20.85
2004    29.42    27.53    25.41    20.63
2012    28.97    27.13    25.29    20.84
2018    29.45    27.18    25.28    20.82
 

Oct      Nino4    3.4        3       1.2
1986    29.07    27.53    25.51    21.27
1991    29.39    27.58    25.59    21.67
1994    29.44    27.47    25.50    21.81
2002    29.55    27.96    25.97    21.39
2004    29.45    27.44    25.52    21.16
2009    29.82    27.60    25.76    21.34
2018    29.84    27.58    25.68    21.13

Weeklies - 

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1

 

I've also settled on a blend of 1963, 2002, 2004, 2004 for my "PDO method" which blend Nino 1.2 (21.13C) in October with PDO values for Mar-Aug.

Year	Oct 1.2	PDO M-A	PDO N-A
1963	20.96	-0.75	-0.88
2002	21.39	-0.24	1.69
2004	21.16	0.57	0.47
2004	21.16	0.57	0.47
Mean	21.17	0.03	0.44
2018	21.13	0.07	?

[raindancewx]

Here are the month/month changes in what the Euro run expects for winter. Keep in mind the Nov run will probably be a lot more skillful than the Oct run for Dec at least, if you go by last year. December - trended warmer in the SW and SE, colder in the NE. I suspect this will flip again when the Euro realizes how warm Nino 4 is though -

January trended much warmer, and the model shows the greatest heat where my analogs have it, the Northern Plains.

Here is February - just about the whole country trended warmer.

March is probably too far out to expect any skill yet...but once again the whole country is warmer than the last run.

Here is a look at precipitation - the model went much drier in the NE overall, somewhat wetter in the SW. Dec, Feb, Mar all came in drier in the NE, with Jan as dry as before.

Dec

Jan

Feb -

March - 

 

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models now going -PNA as there negative subsurface trend in the eastern center.. always.. 

https://imgur.com/a/tLm1yrX

[griteater]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Models now going -PNA as there negative subsurface trend in the eastern center.. always.. 

https://imgur.com/a/tLm1yrX

Isn't the "negative subsurface trend in the eastern center" from the 2017 image?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

My mistake.. they've moved around the site. 

[raindancewx]

Always enjoy November out here in the SW. From this past weekend -

We can argue about who will get the most snow until we are blue in the face, but the mountains here have been getting snow semi-regularly since mid-September if you look at the evidence. If 2004-05 really is going to assert itself, a lot of our mountains had 200-300 inches of snow, near all-time records.

https://www.instagram.com/newmexicotrue/?hl=en

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

10/31: 1.39 / 1.00

Wow...that is extreme modoki..on par with 1968.

Where do you get that daily data?

[griteater]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...that is extreme modoki..on par with 1968.

Where do you get that daily data?

Stormvista

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/5: 0.94 / 0.55

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/5: 0.94 / 0.55

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

11/1: 1.46 / 0.90

Pretty good nosedive recently....probably because of the subsurface warm pool that has been translating eastward. I suspect that it may rebound a bit in a week or two..note the dip in R3.4 recently.

My gut tells me a .9-1.1C ONI peak

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Stormvista

 

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here are the month/month changes in what the Euro run expects for winter. Keep in mind the Nov run will probably be a lot more skillful than the Oct run for Dec at least, if you go by last year. December - trended warmer in the SW and SE, colder in the NE. I suspect this will flip again when the Euro realizes how warm Nino 4 is though -

January trended much warmer, and the model shows the greatest heat where my analogs have it, the Northern Plains.

Here is February - just about the whole country trended warmer.

March is probably too far out to expect any skill yet...but once again the whole country is warmer than the last run.

Here is a look at precipitation - the model went much drier in the NE overall, somewhat wetter in the SW. Dec, Feb, Mar all came in drier in the NE, with Jan as dry as before.

Dec

Jan

Feb -

March - 

 

 

 

My main take away is that the H5 pattern is at least as good, if not better for the east. I'm not very concerned with days 30 through 120 2m temp and precip charts. That said, I don't doubt that the 2m temps on the earlier runs may have been too cold in the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The trend to suppress moisture concerns me more..especially if el nino continues to intensify.

If it remains weak, then I'll take that bet.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

My main take away is that the H5 pattern is at least as good, if not better for the east. I'm not very concerned with days 30 through 120 2m temp and precip charts. That said, I don't doubt that the 2m temps on the earlier runs may have been too cold in the east.

 

The 500`s are great in fact , I ignore all 2m , that`s not where the skill is at all.   If you dig that kind of negative out near the Aleutians in the means you will dig a trough into the east and you will be humming this winter.

The Euro`s greatest skill score is in the E/P and it tends to wash out troughs in the L/R on the E/C.  If you  drive a neg EPO in the means like that you will drive the ridge poleward and you will slide HP down the midsection and east.

 

I love Dec/ Feb/ March.  Big winter incoming for us. 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That bulls eye of that low height anomaly being over NE in February screams miller B to me, so not sure I buy the attendant distribution of QPF anomalies. All else being equal, I would expect that to recover in the NE in subsequent runs.

[frd]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The trend to suppress moisture concerns me more..especially if el nino continues to intensify.

If it remains weak, then I'll take that bet.

Ray, what is the root cause of the moisture supression ?  I thought last month a classic storm track was shown by the seasonals for the winter months. And the strange thing yesterday was the UKmet 's winter precip pattern too, at least to me, as I can't figure whether from moisture pattern was due to upstream blocking or what.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Ray, what is the root cause of the moisture supression ?  I thought last month a classic storm track was shown by the seasonals for the winter months. And the strange thing yesterday was the UKmet 's winter precip pattern too, at least to me, as I can't figure whether from moisture pattern was due to upstream blocking or what.   

Probably a strong STJ in conjunction with a negative NAO.

I am not worried about the UKMET, as I don't buy into a season of apps runners. :LOL:

[raindancewx]

I wanted to add some scope to what I mentioned earlier for Albuquerque, in winter, that the PRIOR DJF conditions in Nino 3.4 still have some effects, even nationally. In other words, whether you are in a La Nina or an El Nino or a Neutral the prior winter in the tropics still amplifies/de-amplifies the cold/heat and precip in some places. The Euro trending drier in the NE and not going as warm as 2014 in the SW is consistent with these correlations, weak though they are, since 2013-14 was warmer in Nino 3.4 than 2017-18 was.

Also, here is a what a big +NAO in October tends to lead to in future months -

Tends to be cold in the middle of the US in December if you get a +NAO in October. Tends to be cold in the SW in Jan/Mar after a +NAO in October.

January tends to be wet in the SE, NE, dry in the Northern Plains after a big Oct +NAO. SE/SW tend to be dry in Feb after a big Oct +NAO, with the Northern Plains wet. The Southern US tends to be wet in March after an Oct +NAO, with the NW dry. CA is strongly favored dry in Dec after a +NAO, with KY/TN strongly favored wet, and the east generally favored wet. In Nov, it tends to be wet everywhere but the NW.

 

[griteater]

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/6: 0.84 / 0.65

11/5: 0.94 / 0.55

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, griteater said:

Nino 3.4 / Modoki Index over the last 5 days (Daily AVHRR Data)

11/6: 0.84 / 0.65

11/5: 0.94 / 0.55

11/4: 1.13 / 0.86

11/3: 1.65 / 1.11

11/2: 1.51 / 0.94

Thank you for these daily updates....greatly appreciated.

[griteater]

Updated with Oct data now in

[raindancewx]

October 2018 ended up looking like a blend of 1941 (x2), 2002 (x2), 2006 nationally. 1941 is in there to warm up in 2002 nationally, and 2006 helps a bit with the shape of things. Worth noting that 1941 also had a major hurricane hit the Gulf Coast, and was an El Nino.

2009 and 1963 are sort of the El Nino extremes for October in recent times, with one very cold and one very hot. This year was a warmer version of 2002, itself warmer than 2009.

November so far kind of looks like 1986 and 1957, but warmer everywhere. It should change anyway. 1957 and 1986 are the top SOI matches for July-Oct if you use absolute value for 2018 values compared to historical-same month SOI values since 1930.

[weathafella]

57 featured a big snow dump around 12/5 in NNJ.  My mother invited my school chums for lunch for my 11th bday a day ahead of the storm.  In those days we came home from school for lunch and then went back.  I remember lunch with dark overcast with temperatures around 40.  We topped a foot in that event-Bergen County of New Jersey.

[raindancewx]

My main issue with 1957 as an analog is you had near record solar activity that year, near 300 on an annualized basis from July 1957 to June 1958. So if solar means anything, some kind of different outcome would be expected. Obviously it is running much warmer than the blend in the NE as of right now too.

I've looked at solar effects by elevation and ENSO in the West, and it seems like the primary effect is on temperature in winter/summer, and on precipitation in fall/spring. March in the SW is kind of flaky for snow, but high solar does seem to be almost a pre-requisite for Albuquerque to get heavy snow in March.

I just looked at Philadelphia snow in El Nino by solar conditions - no correlation. So maybe watch early December? I have a hunch that a blend of 1986/1994/2006 will show up as the Dec pattern though.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I think you're right, the familiarity of 1957-1958 is there.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Again, the Northern Hemisphere pattern is being driven by ENSO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My main issue with 1957 as an analog is you had near record solar activity that year, near 300 on an annualized basis from July 1957 to June 1958. So if solar means anything, some kind of different outcome would be expected. Obviously it is running much warmer than the blend in the NE as of right now too.

I've looked at solar effects by elevation and ENSO in the West, and it seems like the primary effect is on temperature in winter/summer, and on precipitation in fall/spring. March in the SW is kind of flaky for snow, but high solar does seem to be almost a pre-requisite for Albuquerque to get heavy snow in March.

I just looked at Philadelphia snow in El Nino by solar conditions - no correlation. So maybe watch early December? I have a hunch that a blend of 1986/1994/2006 will show up as the Dec pattern though.

I'm not advocating for that particular analog's utility....but I see you speak in absolutes like this quite often....."if A means anything, then B will happen"....meteorology does not work like that. Not only are there a plethora of other factors that modulate weather on a seasonal basis, but there are anomalies, as well. Sometimes you have A+B...but the atmosphere just refuses to $hit out C. Sometimes atmospheric responses are purely stochastic in nature, and that is what makes it fun. It does not mean that a correlation/relationship doesn't exist, and you shouldn't expect C the next time.

Solar implications are very worthy of consideration, regardless of whether or not winter 1957-1958 proves a viable analog for winter 2018-2019-