Weak-Moderate El Nino 2018-2019

[griteater]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The <-20 readings for the daily SOI are a good sign for an El Nino. SOI doesn't usually drop like that in Neutral or La Nina conditions. 30/90 day SOI are around -2 now, which is Neutral but heading in the right direction. I think the European is probably right, August may be a touch colder than Nino 3.4 in July, but some kind of rebound looks likely going forward. The warm water should surface by 120W soon, then at some point the warm waters west will move east and surface.

The buoy data shows cool anomalies along 120W so we've run out of warmth there and to the immediate west near the surface to see Nino 3.4 climb.

 

Getting to an official El Nino (SST) is going to depend on renewed westerly wind anomalies in the western and central Pacific over the next few months, of which, there are good westerlies ongoing right now.

[raindancewx]

I still expect an El Nino, but if we flat-line at +0.2C or +0.3C in the weeklies through mid-September, I think a 2012-13 like collapse in an ONI sense becomes possible. Will give it to mid-September. The big -SOI burst should help a lot given the warmth in Nino 4. Neutral years and El Nino Modoki years are pretty similar out here anyway. The August plume for Nino 3.4 from the ECMWF implied a fall off, before a return to warm Nino 3.4 conditions. If that ends up verifying, I don't think the ECMWF Nino 3.4 plume will change much for September. Last September, the ECMWF handled the following six months pretty well, so that is the run to watch.

[raindancewx]

Warming West, cooling east. Nino 4 is the most stable region overall, and warmer than last year, so the -SOI should prevent an imminent collapse in 3/3.4 a la last year.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04JUL2018     21.9-0.2     26.5 0.6     27.7 0.4     29.2 0.3
 11JUL2018     21.6-0.2     26.1 0.4     27.5 0.2     29.0 0.2
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5

Last year, for comparison.

 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1

[raindancewx]

Latest PDO value from JISAO/Nate Mantua arrived in my email today. PDO is now comparable to last year.

PDO      Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun    Jul
2017**   0.77   0.70   0.74   1.12   0.88   0.79   0.10   0.09   0.32   0.05   0.15   0.50
2018**   0.70   0.37  -0.05   0.11   0.11  -0.04   0.11

 

[raindancewx]

The Jamstec still has an El Nino. I'd call it an east-central event, not a Modoki. Pretty -PDO look too actually, and I'd say it trended the Atlantic somewhat colder too. 

The model has the SW cold now. Rest of the US? Not so much. I think the model is assuming that with less warmth in the center of the Nino zone that the Nino would behave more like a 1997-98 event than a 2009-10 event. In truth, I think in between is more likely personally, ala what I've shown recently. The cold over Maine...and not anywhere else in eastern North America is kind of weird too? If you look at how different Greenland is have to assume the model has some kind of NAO input also.

The model trended to a stronger STJ. Maybe in reaction to the SOI waking up lately?

The Modoki structure moved away from the 1968/2009 extreme of +0.7 (CPAC)-(EPAC*0.5)-(WPAC*0.5) to +0.3 for winter, somewhat like 2014 v. 2009.

Finally, like I keep saying a weak El Nino seems to be the outcome with the most support, and the Jamstec has joined the chorus for that. Peak is now under +1.0C (ONI would hit maybe +0.8C?) from +1.1C previously.

Last year, the Jamstec had a +1.0 DJF El Nino in its July run, before rapidly correcting down to +0.2 for DJF in its August run and then showing a La Nina after. Doesn't seem to be doing that this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If its east based, I would favor 2006 over 1997....this event and 1997 are two totally disparate ends of the intensity spectrum.

[raindancewx]

I don't even really think of those two events as remotely similar, 1997-98 was so warm in Nino 1.2 it had a negative Modoki value, v. the +0.7 you had in 2009 and 1968. 

Look at the Modoki values in 2006-07 (+0.14) v. 1997-98 (-0.66) in DJF. The "El Nino" spectrum to me is like an X-Y axis, -1 to +1 for Modoki structure (1 is like 2009-10, -1 is like 1997-98) and then ONI in DJF is +0.5 to +2.5. This event has "coordinates" of +0.15 and +0.8C to me, which is similar to 2006-07 with some important differences in other areas (AMO notably). The 2005-06 winter was pretty similar to last winter here for what its worth.

2006:12:16:0 0.824027 0.855819 0.238438 0.276899
2007:1:16:0 0.593035 0.65781 0.306874 0.110693
2007:2:16:0 0.367782 0.341768 0.32955 0.0321232

1997:12:16:0 0.854615 3.36762 0.284503 -0.971448
1998:1:16:0 0.974028 2.85706 0.0732014 -0.491103
1998:2:16:0 0.803511 2.41071 0.23594 -0.519815

Box B, the second value, is broadly similar to Nino 1.2 (but bigger) and was at +2.9 for DJF. 2006-07 was kind of a weak basin-wide event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I don't even really think of those two events as remotely similar, 1997-98 was so warm in Nino 1.2 it had a negative Modoki value, v. the +0.7 you had in 2009 and 1968. 

Look at the Modoki values in 2006-07 (+0.14) v. 1997-98 (-0.66) in DJF. The "El Nino" spectrum to me is like an X-Y axis, -1 to +1 for Modoki structure (1 is like 2009-10, -1 is like 1997-98) and then ONI in DJF is +0.5 to +2.5. This event has "coordinates" of +0.15 and +0.8C to me, which is similar to 2006-07 with some important differences in other areas (AMO notably). The 2005-06 winter was pretty similar to last winter here for what its worth.

2006:12:16:0 0.824027 0.855819 0.238438 0.276899
2007:1:16:0 0.593035 0.65781 0.306874 0.110693
2007:2:16:0 0.367782 0.341768 0.32955 0.0321232

1997:12:16:0 0.854615 3.36762 0.284503 -0.971448
1998:1:16:0 0.974028 2.85706 0.0732014 -0.491103
1998:2:16:0 0.803511 2.41071 0.23594 -0.519815

Box B, the second value, is broadly similar to Nino 1.2 (but bigger) and was at +2.9 for DJF. 2006-07 was kind of a weak basin-wide event.

2006-07 was moderate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On August 15, 2018 at 8:25 PM, raindancewx said:

The Jamstec still has an El Nino. I'd call it an east-central event, not a Modoki. Pretty -PDO look too actually, and I'd say it trended the Atlantic somewhat colder too. 

The model has the SW cold now. Rest of the US? Not so much. I think the model is assuming that with less warmth in the center of the Nino zone that the Nino would behave more like a 1997-98 event than a 2009-10 event. In truth, I think in between is more likely personally, ala what I've shown recently. The cold over Maine...and not anywhere else in eastern North America is kind of weird too? If you look at how different Greenland is have to assume the model has some kind of NAO input also.

The model trended to a stronger STJ. Maybe in reaction to the SOI waking up lately?

The Modoki structure moved away from the 1968/2009 extreme of +0.7 (CPAC)-(EPAC*0.5)-(WPAC*0.5) to +0.3 for winter, somewhat like 2014 v. 2009.

Finally, like I keep saying a weak El Nino seems to be the outcome with the most support, and the Jamstec has joined the chorus for that. Peak is now under +1.0C (ONI would hit maybe +0.8C?) from +1.1C previously.

Last year, the Jamstec had a +1.0 DJF El Nino in its July run, before rapidly correcting down to +0.2 for DJF in its August run and then showing a La Nina after. Doesn't seem to be doing that this year.

Where do you get those modoki value charts?

[raindancewx]

The monthly modoki values by Box A, Box B and Box C are back to 1870 here - http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt

The forecast line is on the main Jamstec page. Box C is warming faster than the others, so I think the Modoki forecasts de-trend for the long-term changes in the three zones. I asked one of the Jamstec scientists about that on Twitter a while ago, and that is my basis for the de-trend idea, but I could be misreading since I had to translate his response from Japanese.

[jaxjagman]

One of the big differences in the Jamstec compared to last runs is how much cooler the SST's are in the Gulf of Alaska in "DJF" and for that even matter even into the Bearing Sea

You can get the Modoki index from the pull down Parameter tab

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks, guys.

[raindancewx]

The SOI has flipped positive again lately. Looking at the Box A, Box B, and Box C modoki numbers for last year, 1985-86 is a pretty decent match - will be interesting to see if 1986-87 ends up being similar to this winter. I kind of doubt it, although the AMO cold ring was there.

[raindancewx]

The weeklies showed continued warming in all ENSO regions. Very different from last August. Also, the SOI crashed again and the warm subsurface blob (at least at the equator) remains healthy.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 18JUL2018     21.3-0.3     26.1 0.6     27.6 0.4     29.1 0.3
 25JUL2018     21.1-0.3     25.8 0.3     27.4 0.3     29.0 0.3
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8

 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1

[40/70 Benchmark]

On August 16, 2018 at 7:39 PM, raindancewx said:

I don't even really think of those two events as remotely similar, 1997-98 was so warm in Nino 1.2 it had a negative Modoki value, v. the +0.7 you had in 2009 and 1968. 

Look at the Modoki values in 2006-07 (+0.14) v. 1997-98 (-0.66) in DJF. The "El Nino" spectrum to me is like an X-Y axis, -1 to +1 for Modoki structure (1 is like 2009-10, -1 is like 1997-98) and then ONI in DJF is +0.5 to +2.5. This event has "coordinates" of +0.15 and +0.8C to me, which is similar to 2006-07 with some important differences in other areas (AMO notably). The 2005-06 winter was pretty similar to last winter here for what its worth.

2006:12:16:0 0.824027 0.855819 0.238438 0.276899
2007:1:16:0 0.593035 0.65781 0.306874 0.110693
2007:2:16:0 0.367782 0.341768 0.32955 0.0321232

1997:12:16:0 0.854615 3.36762 0.284503 -0.971448
1998:1:16:0 0.974028 2.85706 0.0732014 -0.491103
1998:2:16:0 0.803511 2.41071 0.23594 -0.519815

Box B, the second value, is broadly similar to Nino 1.2 (but bigger) and was at +2.9 for DJF. 2006-07 was kind of a weak basin-wide event.

Just reading back over this, and your information is so helpful....I understand the modiki values much better.

I'm not a fan of just posting an sst map and going "look, modoki"!...I mean, you obviously get a good idea that way, but I like to utilize metrics to convey data in a more precise and accurate manner, and I was at a loss for how to go about that relative to modoki.

Problem solved.

So, the last value, the 4th, in that table is the modiki value...Box B roughly corresponds to 1.2 and some of region 3....which regions to box A and C denote, 4 and 3.4?

TIA.

[raindancewx]

Every meteorological agency in the world has a different method for El Nino/La Nina designation. These are the coordinates from the Sintex/Jamstec for Modoki designation:

Region    SSTA Anomalies by Box             Global Area    
Box A    165E to 140W, 10S to 10N        Trop Pac Middle    
Box B    110W to 70W, 15S to 5N           S. America waters    
Box C    125E-145E, 10S to 20N             Japan to Equator    

The formula to get the Modoki value is Box A - (0.5*Box B)-(0.5*Box C)

Nino 3.4 is 120-170W, 5S to 5N, so somewhat close to box A.  Box is somewhat close to Box B. Box C is kind of its own thing since it is far away from the equator. It doesn't seem to matter for the Eastern 2/3 of North America, but Box C warming/cooling does have implications in the Western US/Canada/Mexico.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Every meteorological agency in the world has a different method for El Nino/La Nina designation. These are the coordinates from the Sintex/Jamstec for Modoki designation:

Region    SSTA Anomalies by Box             Global Area    
Box A    165E to 140W, 10S to 10N        Trop Pac Middle    
Box B    110W to 70W, 15S to 5N           S. America waters    
Box C    125E-145E, 10S to 20N             Japan to Equator    

The formula to get the Modoki value is Box A - (0.5*Box B)-(0.5*Box C)

Nino 3.4 is 120-170W, 5S to 5N, so somewhat close to box A.  Box is somewhat close to Box B. Box C is kind of its own thing since it is far away from the equator. It doesn't seem to matter for the Eastern 2/3 of North America, but Box C warming/cooling does have implications in the Western US/Canada/Mexico.

So, negative modiki values in a la nina are akin to positive modiki values in an el nino?

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So, negative modiki values in a la nina are akin to positive modiki values in an el nino?

Nevermind...dumb question.

Scale is the same for both ENSO states because a positive modiki value entails cooler anomalies in region 1.2, regardless...long day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny, 1969 really only went bonkers with modoki in January...all through the fall it was more moderately modiki....a la 2014-15.

Interesting.

I'm going to have to decide which monthly calculations to utilize in past analogs......for instance, an average of O, N, D, readings, etc....

Tough call.

[raindancewx]

In terms of what I expect for winter (oceans/solar/ENSO order/matching my Summer weather) I still like 1934-35, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07. The blend is a weak El Nino, warmer anomalies to the west than by Peru, with a warm/wet Summer in my area, the cold AMO ring, relatively neutral PDO readings, and pretty low solar conditions, and when blended, those years follow a healthy (east-based) La Nina, like this year will. The weather last winter was also similar to 1933-34, 1975-76, 1985-86, 1993-94, 2005-06 in various ways.

In terms of the "values", it looks like this -

Year	ONI DJF	AMO N-A	SUN Jul-J	ONIp DJF	Mod DJF	PDO N-A	Monsoon
1934	-0.3	-0.025	27.6	-1.0	0.19	1.02	4.08
1976	0.7	-0.315	23.2	-1.5	-0.14	1.04	3.10
1986	1.1	-0.190	19.1	-0.6	0.36	1.91	6.84
1994	1.1	-0.004	36.9	0.0	0.51	-0.37	4.80
1994	1.1	-0.004	36.9	0.0	0.51	-0.37	4.80
2006	0.6	0.208	20.1	-0.8	0.14	-0.04	9.42
Mean	0.71	-0.055	27.3	-0.65	0.26	0.53	5.51

That is pretty close to the values I'm estimating for 2018-19 currently (and the SSTA map looks similar)

2018

0.8

0.000

11.0

-0.9

0.20

0.50

5.50

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

In terms of what I expect for winter (oceans/solar/ENSO order/matching my Summer weather) I still like 1934-35, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07. The blend is a weak El Nino, warmer anomalies to the west than by Peru, with a warm/wet Summer in my area, the cold AMO ring, relatively neutral PDO readings, and pretty low solar conditions, and when blended, those years follow a healthy (east-based) La Nina, like this year will. The weather last winter was also similar to 1933-34, 1975-76, 1985-86, 1993-94, 2005-06 in various ways.

In terms of the "values", it looks like this -

Year	ONI DJF	AMO N-A	SUN Jul-J	ONIp DJF	Mod DJF	PDO N-A	Monsoon
1934	-0.3	-0.025	27.6	-1.0	0.19	1.02	4.08
1976	0.7	-0.315	23.2	-1.5	-0.14	1.04	3.10
1986	1.1	-0.190	19.1	-0.6	0.36	1.91	6.84
1994	1.1	-0.004	36.9	0.0	0.51	-0.37	4.80
1994	1.1	-0.004	36.9	0.0	0.51	-0.37	4.80
2006	0.6	0.208	20.1	-0.8	0.14	-0.04	9.42
Mean	0.71	-0.055	27.3	-0.65	0.26	0.53	5.51

That is pretty close to the values I'm estimating for 2018-19 currently (and the SSTA map looks similar)

2018

0.8

0.000

11.0

-0.9

0.20

0.50

5.50

I'm wondering if the modiki value during the peak tri-monthly ONI period may be more closely correlated with the DJF forcing regime than the DJF modiki value itself...

2007 would argue against that since the drop in the modiki value mid winter coincided with the warm stretch, and the late season spike with the latter winter resurgence.

Interesting-

[raindancewx]

There is a lot more warm water below the surface in the 2N to 2S ENSO zone now. I don't know that Nino 1.2 is ever really going to get above average temperatures for winter, but the other zones look El Nino ish. My weather (Tmax) and precipitation (at a three week lag) has been very similar this Summer to 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 blended together, so going to stick with that for September, probably into Fall. The AMO looked cold through Aug 24, but has warmed some by Africa lately. The PDO still looks near Neutral. Nino 3.4 warmth seems like it is going to be capped this year by warm waters from the West offsetting the cool waters to the East.

[raindancewx]

2018 and some recent Augusts for context.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4

 06AUG2014     22.2 1.2     25.6 0.4     27.0 0.0     29.2 0.5
 13AUG2014     21.9 1.2     25.5 0.5     26.9 0.0     29.0 0.4
 20AUG2014     22.1 1.4     25.5 0.5     27.1 0.3     29.1 0.4
 27AUG2014     21.3 0.8     25.4 0.4     27.2 0.4     29.2 0.5

 01AUG2012     21.6 0.5     26.1 0.9     27.6 0.6     29.0 0.3
 08AUG2012     20.9 0.0     25.9 0.8     27.7 0.8     29.1 0.4
 15AUG2012     20.8 0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.6     29.1 0.4
 22AUG2012     21.0 0.4     25.5 0.5     27.4 0.6     29.1 0.4
 29AUG2012     20.3-0.2     25.6 0.7     27.7 0.9     29.1 0.5

 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2

[raindancewx]

August 2018 US high temperature anomalies look fairly similar to some recent developing El Nino years - notably 1994, 1997, 2002, 2009, 2014, 2015. Main issues - not as hot as 1994, 2002, 2015 in the SW this August, or as cold in the Lakes. 

 

[raindancewx]

Box C of the Modoki regions is a lot cooler than last year for the month of August. When Box C is cold, and you have an El Nino, the SW can be pretty cold, or at least as cold or colder than the rest of the US in winter. Depends on what the other zones do though too. Box C cold, when Box B is colder than A is typically a colder pattern for the West if it is an El Nino. Can be very warm if Box C is warm though.

These are some years when the E Pac (tropics, Box B on the Modoki scale) were colder than Box A (Nino 3 essentially) but box C was cold (all for DJF):

Right now, Box C is near average? So maybe you take all the El Ninos at low solar on both lists - 1953, 1963, 2009

Cold C		Warm C
B<A		B<A
1953		1980
1954		1989
1956		1993
1958		1996
1963		2001
1966		2002
1967		2004
1968		2009
1977		2012
1979		2014
1990		2017
1992

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4

No update from CPC yet, but June was +0.13, July was +0.17. August probably +0.2 to +0.3. So ONI likely +0.2 for JJA.

Looking forward to the ECMWF update. The drop in August the model had did occur, now we have to see if the reversal happens.

[Isotherm]

Only once since 1950 has an ONI of that magnitude (+0.2c) or lower yielded an ENSO event stronger than weak El Nino. 1986-87 had a ONI value of +0.2c for JJA, and peaked circa +1.2c / low-end moderate el nino for the ensuing winter. All other examples were ensuing weak el ninos. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Only once since 1950 has an ONI of that magnitude (+0.2c) or lower yielded an ENSO event stronger than weak El Nino. 1986-87 had a ONI value of +0.2c for JJA, and peaked circa +1.2c / low-end moderate el nino for the ensuing winter. All other examples were ensuing weak el ninos. 

Interesting. Backs up my conclusion that a weak event is favored, too.

Glad our we are in agreement.

I'm thinking around .9C NDJ peak, with about a .4 modoki (moderately west-based)....but insanely early and subject to change...especially in relation to the latter.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-weak-moderate-el-nino-analogs.html

[raindancewx]

I really think this event will be an almost exact opposite of 2016-17 at this point. If you look at July 2016-Jan 2017 you had a La Nina in 3.4, but Nino 1.2 was very warm. This event looks very cold in Nino 1.2, but warm enough to be classified as an El Nino in 3.4 (although it is starting later than 2016-17 did).

I went with 1934, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 as my Fall analogs based on ocean, solar and observed weather conditions locally. 1934, 1994, and 2006 were very cold starts to September here, which has happened this year. My Sept 1-3 highs in 2018 trail only 2006 and 1938 since 1931. Haven't had a September 2F or more below the 1951-2010 mean high here since 2006 - but we'll have a shot at it this year looks like and my analogs did have a much colder Fall for the SW v. 2017, around 5F colder overall (3F colder in Sept-Oct, 8F in Nov).

Also: The NOAA PDO value for August fell from July, usually the NOAA PDO trends like the Mantua/JISAO values. My research suggests the PDO base state in Mar-Aug, plus the October temps in Nino 1.2, blended together, predict the Nov-Apr PDO state/intensity fairly well.

I'm estimating 21.2C for Nino 1.2 in October and the March-August PDO to be around 0. Some that approximate those values: 1965, 2002, 2004 (PDO Only)

 

[BlizzardWx]

On 9/3/2018 at 9:48 AM, raindancewx said:

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 01AUG2018     21.2 0.1     25.3 0.0     27.1 0.1     29.1 0.4
 08AUG2018     20.8-0.1     25.1-0.1     27.1 0.2     29.2 0.5
 15AUG2018     20.9 0.2     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.4     29.5 0.8
 22AUG2018     20.4-0.2     25.1 0.1     27.1 0.3     29.0 0.4
 29AUG2018     20.3-0.3     24.9-0.1     27.0 0.2     29.1 0.4

No update from CPC yet, but June was +0.13, July was +0.17. August probably +0.2 to +0.3. So ONI likely +0.2 for JJA.

Looking forward to the ECMWF update. The drop in August the model had did occur, now we have to see if the reversal happens.

The downwelling kelvin wave will probably help the warming resume again, but will be interesting to see how much. I am less experienced than you guys on the subject, but everything I can see points to a weak event as well.