AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 17, 2018 Author Share Posted June 17, 2018 So this cold pool around -200m may stop the El Nino altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 17, 2018 Author Share Posted June 17, 2018 Trending away from El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Trending away from El Nino Seems that a weak El Nino, or at least warm neutral should be possible. The Alantic should cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 If you look at the first post in this discussion, it has the mid-June maps for 2017 & 2018. There is far more warm water at the subsurface, and far less cold water now. In 2012, ONI did reach near El Nino conditions in Fall, JAS to SON, before falling off to near La Nina conditions in winter (-0.4 in DJF). ONI values in MAM (-0.4 +/-0.2) were similar to the following years: If ONI is -0.1 or -0.2 in AMJ, after being -0.4 in MAM, years within 0.2 for both periods include: 1962, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1981, 1986, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2012 June 2018 is pretty hot in the middle of the US (cooling off quickly here after the big rains yesterday), cool FL, NE, NW. That looks like the opposite of 1967, and similar to 2001 and 2012. Going forward, the colder Atlantic in June (y/y) favors a colder July v. last year in the East and SW, with the warmer Nino 3.4 favoring enhanced moisture in the SW (AZ especially). The SOI was -9.5 last June, so that won't be too different from this year. My hunch is we get an El Nino, but it starts in July or August, and then it ends fairly early, say January/February, it will be the flip of 2016-17 (Modoki El Nino, not Modoki La Nina, colder Atlantic ring by Africa, not warm, near neutral PDO, lower solar) with maybe near exact opposite behavior. The La Nina that ended in March started in September. Something like a blend of 1963, 1996, 2009 is my idea for later Summer and Fall, maybe Winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 17, 2018 Author Share Posted June 17, 2018 Furthermore, this subsurface warmth building in the west (~140E) is a sea-saw to La Nina conditions in time. (I cant get it to animate.) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 Nino 3.4 went positive for the first time since last August. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 The European has had an El Nino for two runs in a row now, arguably a bit stronger this run. I added the yellow line as an approximate middle ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 If it stays at +Neutral/weak El Nino range, A lot more options globally, where I think a stronger Nino would have narrowed it down quite a bit in this post-2013 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. SOI is also up since 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThisIsNotSparta Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Looking at this graph the tendency may be La Nina for another 1-2 years. Aesthetics are 60% chance it falls in the Fall I think, although it will be hard to cool the subsurface disregarding Weak La Nina chances. SOI is also up since 1998. You can see the anomalously westerly winds popping up along with warmer SSTs, though. The spring barrier has passed, and it looks like El Nino will be in place in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 19, 2018 Author Share Posted June 19, 2018 I can see more evenening out of the 2013-2016 El Nino. There's probably a really strong El Nino coming up in the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 I'm on the Nate Mantua mailing list for the JISAO PDO (monthly) values. The PDO value for May was +0.11, same as April, up from -0.05 in March. Last May was +0.88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 21, 2018 Author Share Posted June 21, 2018 Moving into Weak El Nino territory now. You guys are probably right about Weak to Moderate El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 22, 2018 Author Share Posted June 22, 2018 healthy - forming from the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 22, 2018 Share Posted June 22, 2018 Any of you see the proposed new NZ teleconnection index? https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04722-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 22, 2018 Author Share Posted June 22, 2018 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_jun2018/ensodisc.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 >1*c rise from March-June (not >1 March).. 2009, 1997. It's 6/7 going into reverse ENSO 2009 is a good analog as far as the 1948-2018 dataset goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 ^^ You have to be careful with that, the anomalies are all centered on 30 year periods that change every five years. Older events warmed up a lot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 Global yearly cycle is consistent though.. I'd be less certain about analogs pre-1920s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 26, 2018 Author Share Posted June 26, 2018 Negative PDO is really becoming a thing. Maybe +Neutral/Weak Nino max.http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 Subsurface is becoming weak in the central/west.. ENSO Neutral is my call. Winter more likely -PNA now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 27, 2018 Share Posted June 27, 2018 Nino 3.4 1950 24.55 25.06 25.87 26.28 26.18 26.46 26.29 25.88 25.74 25.69 25.47 25.29 1951 25.24 25.71 26.90 27.58 27.92 27.73 27.60 27.02 27.23 27.20 27.25 26.91 1952 26.67 26.74 27.17 27.80 27.79 27.18 26.53 26.30 26.36 26.26 25.92 26.21 1953 26.74 27.00 27.57 28.04 28.28 28.12 27.43 26.94 27.01 26.87 26.88 27.00 1954 26.98 27.03 26.90 26.64 27.12 26.80 26.11 25.43 25.12 25.23 25.57 25.26 1955 25.61 25.81 26.22 26.60 26.66 26.55 26.15 25.51 25.28 24.41 24.25 24.57 1956 25.34 25.76 26.46 26.85 27.13 26.81 26.23 25.68 25.73 25.75 25.56 25.71 1957 26.04 26.54 27.46 28.23 28.55 28.36 28.17 27.69 27.44 27.42 27.62 27.90 1958 28.33 28.24 28.27 28.27 28.31 27.99 27.32 26.85 26.40 26.45 26.75 26.62 1959 27.07 27.18 27.47 27.88 27.70 27.37 26.44 26.09 25.92 26.24 26.04 26.18 1960 26.27 26.29 26.98 27.49 27.68 27.24 26.88 26.70 26.44 26.22 26.26 26.22 1961 26.23 26.56 26.94 27.36 27.75 27.67 26.89 26.19 25.78 25.71 26.07 25.97 1962 25.96 26.19 26.80 27.13 27.05 27.08 26.76 26.33 25.94 25.97 25.75 25.67 1963 25.77 26.22 27.18 27.78 27.63 27.62 27.78 27.48 27.40 27.36 27.47 27.62 1964 27.34 27.13 27.02 26.95 26.82 26.59 26.33 25.60 25.32 25.37 25.26 25.23 1965 25.66 26.19 26.94 27.38 27.99 28.09 27.90 27.97 28.01 28.17 28.12 27.96 1966 27.67 27.55 28.21 28.16 27.55 27.64 27.33 26.48 26.27 26.22 26.23 26.03 1967 25.88 26.11 26.50 26.74 27.35 27.47 26.97 26.44 25.86 25.97 26.08 25.95 1968 25.69 25.68 26.33 27.10 27.19 27.88 27.58 27.01 26.72 26.75 27.20 27.27 1969 27.50 27.86 27.82 28.13 28.29 27.69 27.08 27.02 27.15 27.34 27.10 26.98 1970 26.83 26.95 27.14 27.74 27.63 27.04 26.21 25.60 25.65 25.60 25.57 25.27 1971 24.81 25.18 25.92 26.63 26.95 26.60 26.13 25.75 25.72 25.47 25.56 25.37 1972 25.62 26.30 27.09 27.89 28.32 28.18 28.14 27.95 27.95 28.26 28.61 28.69 1973 28.34 27.95 27.55 27.24 26.96 26.55 25.76 25.22 25.06 24.73 24.33 24.33 1974 24.46 25.10 25.84 26.46 26.64 26.53 26.39 26.33 26.08 25.78 25.61 25.63 1975 26.09 26.07 26.19 26.86 26.80 26.23 25.90 25.33 25.05 24.89 25.05 24.67 1976 24.54 25.49 26.46 26.88 27.20 27.35 27.13 26.98 27.02 27.46 27.41 27.09 1977 27.32 27.13 27.47 27.44 27.72 27.74 27.38 26.85 27.12 27.35 27.19 27.29 1978 27.17 27.00 27.09 27.12 27.20 27.02 26.74 26.07 26.01 26.25 26.33 26.54 1979 26.41 26.53 27.27 27.83 27.69 27.43 26.82 26.75 26.99 26.83 26.99 27.11 1980 27.08 26.97 27.31 27.75 28.01 27.94 27.23 26.48 26.44 26.46 26.60 26.65 1981 26.18 26.11 26.64 27.29 27.36 27.27 26.65 26.33 26.53 26.42 26.29 26.40 1982 26.67 26.59 27.41 28.03 28.39 28.26 27.66 27.58 28.21 28.71 28.62 28.80 1983 28.89 28.69 28.66 28.77 28.84 28.27 27.18 26.59 26.20 25.56 25.41 25.57 1984 25.88 26.56 26.77 27.14 27.20 26.83 26.79 26.61 26.38 26.04 25.52 25.25 1985 25.38 26.03 26.50 26.64 26.90 26.81 26.56 26.30 26.02 26.23 26.33 26.19 1986 25.89 26.05 26.87 27.49 27.40 27.42 27.18 27.17 27.24 27.53 27.71 27.72 1987 27.68 27.88 28.27 28.39 28.56 28.65 28.59 28.42 28.36 27.96 27.77 27.54 1988 27.45 27.03 27.38 27.38 26.68 25.99 25.56 25.66 25.72 24.82 24.65 24.63 1989 24.58 25.28 26.08 26.74 27.06 27.14 26.72 26.33 26.42 26.32 26.25 26.46 1990 26.56 26.96 27.33 27.90 28.02 27.64 27.38 27.07 26.94 26.93 26.81 26.95 1991 27.03 27.07 27.32 28.01 28.20 28.25 28.05 27.53 27.14 27.58 27.90 28.29 1992 28.38 28.53 28.66 29.02 28.98 28.30 27.51 26.91 26.65 26.42 26.42 26.44 1993 26.69 27.16 27.67 28.41 28.71 28.08 27.52 26.99 27.07 26.77 26.71 26.76 1994 26.64 26.81 27.39 28.08 28.24 28.04 27.54 27.38 27.20 27.47 27.81 27.85 1995 27.57 27.49 27.75 28.10 27.82 27.59 27.08 26.23 25.88 25.84 25.60 25.65 1996 25.69 25.89 26.67 27.35 27.55 27.29 26.85 26.64 26.27 26.27 26.29 25.95 1997 26.01 26.38 27.04 27.98 28.58 28.82 28.86 28.75 28.85 29.08 29.12 28.89 1998 28.93 28.78 28.62 28.60 28.51 27.34 26.30 25.57 25.46 25.25 25.24 24.91 1999 24.86 25.43 26.33 26.70 26.79 26.53 26.13 25.63 25.63 25.48 25.12 24.86 2000 24.78 25.21 26.30 26.95 27.07 26.94 26.63 26.37 26.20 26.02 25.92 25.68 2001 25.81 26.12 26.80 27.33 27.60 27.54 27.25 26.80 26.52 26.57 26.33 26.19 2002 26.39 26.71 27.29 27.84 28.24 28.44 28.03 27.72 27.81 27.96 28.17 27.97 2003 27.15 27.39 27.65 27.68 27.32 27.44 27.50 27.11 26.99 27.14 27.04 27.03 2004 26.81 26.98 27.40 27.89 28.00 27.86 27.78 27.62 27.53 27.44 27.36 27.34 2005 27.21 27.11 27.73 28.08 28.24 27.77 27.06 26.80 26.68 26.65 26.11 25.68 2006 25.63 26.08 26.57 27.50 27.85 27.73 27.30 27.16 27.32 27.41 27.69 27.74 2007 27.24 26.88 27.10 27.50 27.46 27.37 26.71 26.14 25.61 25.32 25.17 25.01 2008 24.86 25.08 26.07 26.83 27.09 27.04 26.99 26.72 26.47 26.37 26.25 25.74 2009 25.66 25.96 26.59 27.47 27.99 28.04 27.78 27.42 27.40 27.60 28.16 28.34 2010 28.07 28.01 28.18 28.20 27.71 27.04 26.22 25.47 25.12 25.03 25.06 25.00 2011 25.00 25.64 26.36 27.05 27.41 27.35 26.87 26.21 25.92 25.67 25.52 25.54 2012 25.67 26.08 26.67 27.32 27.61 27.75 27.54 27.32 27.10 26.98 26.86 26.34 2013 26.01 26.24 27.03 27.57 27.53 27.30 26.91 26.47 26.54 26.52 26.56 26.43 2014 26.05 26.14 27.00 27.90 28.25 27.96 27.23 26.82 27.01 27.16 27.46 27.31 2015 27.05 27.17 27.75 28.52 28.85 28.90 28.75 28.79 28.93 29.08 29.42 29.26 2016 29.11 29.01 28.90 28.72 28.23 27.69 26.82 26.28 26.14 25.98 25.94 26.10 2017 26.12 26.67 27.32 28.03 28.30 28.06 27.54 26.70 26.29 26.15 25.74 25.62 2018 25.57 25.97 26.49 27.31 27.71 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 Year to date, for SST (actual) figures in Nino 3.4, 2012, 2006, 1996 are pretty close for Jan-May, within 0.2C of 2018, and 2009 is pretty close too. We'll see what June brings. A blend of winters 1996-97, 2006-07, 2012-13 would actually be pretty cold here. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nina34.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 28, 2018 Author Share Posted June 28, 2018 Weak Subsurface.. ENSO Neutral, maybe some cold pushes in the Fall I think with this global pattern (2016-2018 La Nina, 2007-2018 La Nina) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Some very warm subsurface waters are nearing the surface by 120W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 The Canadian Model update (6/30) has El Nino conditions for July through next Spring, with an NDJ peak. The model has shifted to more a ideal Modoki El Nino look, with Nino 1.2 much colder than 3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Progressing east to west, such as the Northern Hemisphere skew. This is the pattern right now. El Nino is not certain (it's already more west-based). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 I think it will be some kind of anti-2016-17 event. The 2016-17 event was considered a La Nina from July-Jan, but featured extreme warmth at times in Nino 1.2 I think 2018-19 will be considered an El Nino, with cold in Nino 1.2, and unusual (La Nina-like) warmth to the west of Nino 3.4 near Asia. I've been toying with calling these events "El-Transgender" or something since they have aspects of the boy and the girl in some sense rather than being really Neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 2, 2018 Share Posted July 2, 2018 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2 23MAY2018 23.0-0.8 26.9-0.1 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.2 30MAY2018 23.5-0.1 27.0 0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.2 06JUN2018 22.8-0.5 26.8 0.2 27.7 0.0 29.0 0.2 13JUN2018 22.0-1.0 26.7 0.2 27.9 0.2 29.1 0.3 20JUN2018 21.6-1.0 26.7 0.4 28.0 0.4 29.2 0.4 27JUN2018 21.7-0.7 26.6 0.4 27.9 0.4 29.3 0.5 Pretty significant warming from May to June according to the ECMWF while we wait for ONI from CPC. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 2018 1 0.01 -0.17 -0.16 2018 2 0.29 0.09 -0.11 2018 3 0.46 0.44 0.51 2018 4 0.58 0.62 0.80 2018 5 0.72 0.75 0.88 2018 6 0.77 0.81 0.87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 Thermocline's high.. nice -PNA now with cooling trend vs normal wave pattern. Trend is we'll stay below El Nino, somewhere around 0.0 by the peak time I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 ONI came in at -0.1C for AMJ. June was +0.1C http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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