cstrunk Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 SPC going with a MOD for southwest AR, extreme NE TX, and extreme NW LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I’ve driven around that MDT region a bunch and that strikes me as dreadful terrain for chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Was this much early convection expected in eastern OK? CAM models I looked at showed sparse pickings of precip until later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Annoying how long it takes SPC's website to fully update the outlook. Other sites do it faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 In terms of placement of the risk, this day reminds me a lot of April 27, 2014. Stuff expected to light up around the KS-OK/MO-AR border region, with a bullseye over AR. Of course, that ended up going to HIGH, but as impressive and deadly as the Mayflower-Vilonia tornado was, it was the only such storm of the day and a 15% hatched MDT would probably have adequately covered it. Meanwhile further north, some wind profile issues tempered more significant tornado activity, but there was still the Quapaw-Baxter Springs event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just not understanding the 15 hatched down south. Storm mode looks beyond messy. I could see qlcs tornadoes but they were talking like discrete. I still prefer playing north albeit some hindrances to tornadic potential. Better storm mode and terrain. Taking my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Ugh so this is odd. A severe thundersnow storm. Quote The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jackson County in southwestern Minnesota... Eastern Nobles County in southwestern Minnesota... Cottonwood County in southwestern Minnesota... Eastern Murray County in southwestern Minnesota... * Until 900 AM CDT * At 818 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lake Shetek State Park to near Fulda to near Worthington, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 8 AM CDT 70 mph winds were reported 2 miles east of Wilmont IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 This storm is actually headed right for me. To add to that a very high wind report for such storm. 1 N RUSHMORE Wind Report County, State: NOBLES, MN (marker location is approximate) Lat.: 43.64, Lon.: -95.79 Time: 2018-04-13 12:52 UTCWind Speed: 78 MPH MEASURED BY MNDOT RWIS. (FSD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 It is strange to have svr t storm warnings with thundersnow, but it does happen at times. I've experienced it once in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Several warnings in WI, now, too. It's not even 40 degrees. Must be April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Snow or hail for the severe area? EDIT: Report of 2'' of pea size hail, so thats answers it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Something I find interesting along the dryline is how the HRRR has a fairly favorable bulk shear vector to the boundary. Definitely more favorable than what was originally thought. Could be something, could be nothing. Believe we are in for quite an active day with watches covering a large portion of the country later today and heaping handfuls of SVR warnings and probably numerous tornado warnings later too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 IMO, I would shift/expand the MOD risk area a bit west or southwest... HHHR and NAM NEST showing a number of more discrete cells and helicity tracks in NE TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 NE KS also looks like a good play, west/southwest of St. Joseph, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Inch deep pea size hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 55 minutes ago, cstrunk said: NE KS also looks like a good play, west/southwest of St. Joseph, MO. Maybe if you like to chase hail and bow echos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Maybe if you like to chase hail and bow echos. Hrrr soundings show some tornado potential in this area. Pretty high sig tor parameters. But obviously that relies on storm mode not getting too messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 The 15% hatched for tors is ridiculous. So beyond over-done.Should be a paste job 5% kind of day. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Hrrr soundings show some tornado potential in this area. Pretty high sig tor parameters. But obviously that relies on storm mode not getting too messy That RFD air is going to be as buoyant as a bag of rocks. Pretty hard to get more than weak tornados when that happens. The Orf conceptual model supports that. LCL is sort of a proxy for that but not always. So sig tor overstates risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: That RFD air is going to be as buoyant as a bag of rocks. Pretty hard to get more than weak tornados when that happens. The Orf conceptual model supports that. LCL is sort of a proxy for that but not always. So sig tor overstates risk. Still think tornadoes are possible. You pretty much discounted that threat. Spc wouldn't put a 10 for fun. I agree that hail and wind will be the main threats but tornado threat is there early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 That aforementioned severe storm that produced 70-80mph winds, sig damage, and all of that hail in SE. Minnesota earlier is crazy... Especially with temps/DP's only in the 30's and some snow along with it. Definitely a rare occurrence for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Still think tornadoes are possible. You pretty much discounted that threat. Spc wouldn't put a 10 for fun. I agree that hail and wind will be the main threats but tornado threat is there early on To be fair, I did specifically mention NE KS, where I noted a pronounced HHHR helicity swath moreso than I did in SW IA. SW IA may well be the better play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Still think tornadoes are possible. You pretty much discounted that threat. Spc wouldn't put a 10 for fun. I agree that hail and wind will be the main threats but tornado threat is there early on Even 10% is too high. Activity down in the vicinity of that 15% tor area will become QLCS-ish fairly quickly. A few tors possibly with that given the environment, but not nearly 15% worthy, or even 10% worthy for that matter. The enhanced risk further north is probably being over-played a bit as well. Hopefully no one chasing tries to make a play on a storm in SE. NE/SW. IA/NW. MO...All of that activity will quickly rocket north of the stalled WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: That aforementioned severe storm that produced 70-80mph winds, sig damage, and all of that hail in SE. Minnesota earlier is crazy... Especially with temps/DP's only in the 30's and some snow along with it. Definitely a rare occurrence for sure. Reminds me of what happened in that March 2006 storm. I think there were tornadoes with temps in the 40s and then the 107 mph gust at MLI with temps only in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 This is NOT a 15% event. Storm mode is a massive issue and I think a 10% hatched would have sufficed. A 5% is comically low especially given the low level shear parameters which should enable tornadoes in the QLCS which will inevitably develop later in the event. Early on I see a discrete/semi discrete storm mode that may be capable of a strong tornado or two given the parameters, but no more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 That risk area over AR is for this evening and tonight, not now. I completely understand why it is there and if they get discrete cells down there, it will easily verify given the parameter space forecast this evening after 4pm local. I do think it should have stayed 10% though, but 10 to 15% is not a major jump when looking at probabilities, it is just that it is a categorical jump that people are losing it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Even 10% is too high. Activity down in the vicinity of that 15% tor area will become QLCS-ish fairly quickly. A few tors possibly with that given the environment, but not nearly 15% worthy, or even 10% worthy for that matter. The enhanced risk further north is probably being over-played a bit as well. Hopefully no one chasing tries to make a play on a storm in SE. NE/SW. IA/NW. MO...All of that activity will quickly rocket north of the stalled WF. I agree with down south. But where else would you play up north? That is the play. Storms in ne KS will have some time in warm sector before going north over front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I agree with down south. But where else would you play up north? That is the play. Storms in ne KS will have some time in warm sector before going north over front I wouldn't play anywhere, which is why I'm sitting at home right now. If out there though, I'd try to play something further that's more isolated and south, like something that develops near TOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 56 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The 15% hatched for tors is ridiculous. So beyond over-done. Should be a paste job 5% kind of day. . This is absolutely higher than a 5% day. Come on. Even a mixed mode will likely give AR problems later on given the environment in the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornado_junkies Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, andyhb said: This is absolutely higher than a 5% day. Come on. Even a mixed mode will likely give AR problems later on given the environment in the low levels. Yeah no kidding! What is this guy smoking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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