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April 12th-15th Winter Storm


MNstorms

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32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Nice. Still 35/33 and plain rain here in Lake Zurich. 

Door County WI is getting destroyed. 10” today and expecting another 10” tonight. 

Yeah, Door County is definitely getting destroyed. The report below is delayed from 9:30am this morning but I thought it was worth repeating. It's from Jacksonport by where my in-laws go every summer. They could still get a lot more in that area. This definitely is a historic storm, at least in a lot of areas. 

Location: JACKSONPORT
Amount: 16 Inches
Report Time: 09:37 am EDT - 4/14/2018
Remarks: MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE. NUMEROUS VEHICLES STUCK AND ABANDONED.

In Madison we're getting a taste of the crazy weather but it's nothing too bad yet, just bad for April. We've been getting sleet showers the last few hours and have about 1/2" on the ground. At least it appears we're dodging the ZR. Expecting more sleet overnight turning to snow with a few inches.

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It has flipped over from sleet to rain now. It seems borderline to zr. 33 now.

 

We had enough sleet to accumulate on grass, roads and sidewalks visible just before dark. Decorative lights strung around our elevated deck seemed to be frozen up.

 

 

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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squinting from across the room to the flood light  to try and see if any snow is mixing in and you'll randomly see a  marshmallow size flake come shooting straight down.  with this wind you'd need hail falling for it to come down like that.  still a mixed bag.  not sure if any rain is coming down in to the puddles like an hr ago.   not much for pingers hitting the window atm but they come and go.. maybe precip intensity is dictating things?

wind is ramping up again with bigger gust. random pebbles pelting the windows in them gust atm

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As was discussed beforehand, the colder guidance definitely won.  It seems that time of year doesn’t help the gfs at all with these dense/shallow cold air masses.  I will say I’ve been a bit surprised at some areas developing icy roads pretty quickly during the day where ZR or a mix was falling today despite warm ground temps and time of year.  At night and after a period of time below freezing you expect it even in April, but was surprised to hear of some areas icing up pretty quickly during the day today.  Something to keep in mind in the future.  Good luck to anyone in the line of fire tonight into tomorrow. 

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Well, 0 for 2 as neither office did that. MKX in particular looks dicey/icy in the southeastern counties that aren't under one.  Climo would suggest it's tough to get ice near the Lake Michigan shore in mid April but I think that will be put to the test.

mke now advisory.  should have been that way from the get go.. odd office

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3 minutes ago, on_wx said:

EC halving freezing rain amounts in the updated warnings 

Which model are they using, the 00z NAM increased amounts at least for me (from .5" to .8"). I don't believe the HRRR, spreads the icing around in a unrealistic fashion.

The afternoon forecast of snow or 10 cm of ice pellets of course didn't verify. It was some unknown precip. with mainly small ice pellets/sleet. Ironically enough it turned over briefly to snowflakes at 6:45 pm before it ended which is early evening - forecast was to change over to ice pellets from snow :lol: . I have around 1-1.5 inches of sleet on the ground. A hour to my north got the big snowstorm where likely it was the most to fall in a low pressure system since 2011 or even 2006 :lol: . I just got a power flicker as I finished typing this and one 7 hours ago but nothing else :unsure: .

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As of right now I got t least 2-3" of a snow/sleet mix on the ground. Near-blizzard conditions in town and sheltered by the local drumlin here. I can't imagine what its like out in the country right now. MKX bumped our snow totals up to 6". Off the top of my head this ironically might be my first WSW all year long. I think we might be a bit north of the ZR crap rn so I guess that's a plus.What a storm.

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

As was discussed beforehand, the colder guidance definitely won.  It seems that time of year doesn’t help the gfs at all with these dense/shallow cold air masses.  I will say I’ve been a bit surprised at some areas developing icy roads pretty quickly during the day where ZR or a mix was falling today despite warm ground temps and time of year.  At night and after a period of time below freezing you expect it even in April, but was surprised to hear of some areas icing up pretty quickly during the day today.  Something to keep in mind in the future.  Good luck to anyone in the line of fire tonight into tomorrow. 

Along with the gfs not doing well with shallow cold, it also has built in climo it is working against too. It shouldn't be this cold right now.

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11 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Freezing rain here and 29°. Started roughly a half of an hour ago and already have a tenth of an inch of accretion. 

Ugh, the last several HRRR runs are just blasting my area with 1/2" - 3/4" ZR. It should get started here in an hour or two. Luckily I managed 95% sleet for the first round, this round is looking really bad.

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Fortunately, the freezing rain has moved just east of me. Looks like the east side of the state is going to feel the brunt of this storm - HRRR caught on by roughly 23Z showing the majority of precip on the east side of the state overnight.

 

What a mess haha. Picked up two tenths of an inch here - no true ill-effects from it yet and don’t expect it to get too out of hand from here on out unless the dry slot fills in to the SSW. Wind has calmed significantly since midnight.

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Crazy system for mid-April ... looks to be pivoting over 36h so could expect some very heavy freezing rain in a narrow band probably about YXU to FNT to GRR to northern Chicago metro, frequent  thunder and lightning will develop during the day, heavy ice pellets in a band from YYZ to WGD to MBS to MKG, so less icing but equal amounts of liquid equivalent, heavy snow band north of that.

Despite 552 dm thickness pushing into s.e. MI and upstate NY, cold air can't be flushed out due to falling heights and the system pivot. 

Temps will struggle to pass -1 C (30 F) and may eventually do so but the dynamics are so strong aloft, looks like there could be intense thunder and lightning across sw ON and se MI most of the day and into the overnight period for central southern ON and upstate NY. 

Where this turned into a blizzard, it brought back memories for me of the April 2-4 1975 storm and the 20-25 inch snowfall we had in central Ontario ... that was blown into large drifts which then froze solid for several days in the freeze-thaw cycle of strong April sun and record cold temps. Might be a bit like that in MN and northern WI by Monday, move those drifts now before they freeze solid. I suspect the snowfall amounts are overdone for u.p. MI, 6 to 12 inches might be all you see, storm is going to weaken that far north tomorrow. 

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