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April 12th-15th Winter Storm


MNstorms

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1 minute ago, London snowsquall said:

Hope things don't get too bad in your area.  We do a yearly golf trip to mid-Michigan/Mt. Pleasant area in June and the courses we usually play are very scenic and heavily wooded.  

Hopefully sleet will save the day instead of so much freezing rain :D

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7 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

One of the good things about riding the pinger - freezing rain line is that sleet/ice pellets tend to "steal" the freezing rain before hitting the ground, so I'm hoping the ZR is simply being overdone. Hoping. 

Get your cameras ready for tomorrow in case there are some stunning scenes.

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6Z GFS is trending toward a faster changeover to snow from sleet and freezing rain tonight for SC WI. Will have to watch if this trend continues in later model runs, and if it does MKX is going to need to update their forecast. Currently they're going for 1-3" total accumulation but 6Z GFS is pointing to some 6" or greater amounts now. I would definitely prefer to see 6" of snow versus a lot of freezing rain/sleet. 

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2 hours ago, London snowsquall said:

Environment Canada using the 'potentially historic ice storm' wording for us in London as well in their 5 am update.   Might be nice to see when you are talking snow - for ice, not so much.........and especially in mid April.

Looks like you'll be in the icing bullseye Alan, or just south of it. Here's hoping for the best.

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4 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

Snow boundary much further south than progged in Michigan right now. Here's to hoping!

Bad Axe and Mount Pleasant were reporting snow, which is a bit further south than the models progged (though it's likely not pure snow).

YYZ is still a couple degrees above freezing at ~700mb, which will make snow impossible...unless there's a dry layer that the models are underdoing.

I'd be surprised if we saw a flake here but time will tell.

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22 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks like you'll be in the icing bullseye Alan, or just south of it. Here's hoping for the best.

Thanks for the positive sentiment, Mike.  Getting things ready with flashlights etc.   The last ice of significance here was April '03.   I remember doing a lot of tree cleanup afterwards but fortunately we didn't have any come down in our yard or on our street.   Time will tell how this one turns out. 

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10 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

The NAM has the RN—ZR transition here ~16z while HRRR has it ~21z. Models obviously struggling with this air mass. Will be keeping an eye on the temperature.

I wouldn't trust any of the NAM outputs at this stage, it's doing a poor job handling the system already.

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Bad Axe and Mount Pleasant were reporting snow, which is a bit further south than the models progged (though it's likely not pure snow).

YYZ is still a couple degrees above freezing at ~700mb, which will make snow impossible...unless there's a dry layer that the models are underdoing.

I'd be surprised if we saw a flake here but time will tell.

Don't trust some of the observation. I can tell by stepping outside that it isn't snowing in bad axe.  sleet freezing rain mix with trees that are icing up despite temps right around freezing. It isn't even dripping anymore off the trees pretty much all freezing on contact. Winds are at 40 so this isn't looking good...

 

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12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Starting to smell a bust here. HRRR/RAP keeping the heaviest precip to our NW and that's pretty much being corroborated by the radar. Going to be tough to get accums of PL with just showery precip.

The HRRR also keeps us more into the freezing rain, which is concerning. It shows close to 0.5” of precip as FRZRA.

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16 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Starting to smell a bust here. HRRR/RAP keeping the heaviest precip to our NW and that's pretty much being corroborated by the radar. Going to be tough to get accums of PL with just showery precip.

Depends what you mean by bust... by the looks of it, this is going to be a ZR event here. Definitely the outcome I least wanted but should be interesting. HRRR spitting out 0.5" of icing today and that doesn't even include tomorrow's ZR, which was looking like another 0.5"

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