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NewYorkweatherfan

April 7-8 2018 jinx

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2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I had asked that question yesterday about the snowiest spring ever figuring we were close at 13.9 inches but Bluewave posted today we are in the number two spot with 14.5 being the record. With NYC being that close we have to go for it now, somehow some way. 

Yeah who knows if we'll ever get this chance again in our lifetimes.  I also noticed that Don said that we might return to a colder pattern close to the end of the month, but it would be extremely difficult to get any measurable snow by then.

I see that NYC has never had any measurable snow in May (latest is 0.5" on April 29) but I know there have been traces in May, even just a few years ago, close to Memorial Day!  And there's been measurable snow in southern NJ in May.

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Congrats Western VA and most of West Virginia and Western MD

Looks like another big event in the higher elevations, similar to 3/24 but slightly North.

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Despite the low verification scores, there have been several snow events this season where the GGEM was the first model to pick up them. The model certainly is useful. Not that I'm high on the monday night threat.

The post Valentine's Day storm in February which occurred in the middle of a warm pattern is one that immediately comes to mind where the GGEM picked up on it first.

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Yeah who knows if we'll ever get this chance again in our lifetimes.  I also noticed that Don said that we might return to a colder pattern close to the end of the month, but it would be extremely difficult to get any measurable snow by then.

I see that NYC has never had any measurable snow in May (latest is 0.5" on April 29) but I know there have been traces in May, even just a few years ago, close to Memorial Day!  And there's been measurable snow in southern NJ in May.

The May 9-10 1977 storm was pretty memorable around here. NYC only recorded a trace but you didn’t  have to go that far north and east to see measurable snow.  One town in the Hudson Valley although at a high elevation received 27 inches from that storm. One town in CT 20 inches. Sick stuff for almost the middle of May it was crazy. 

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38 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The May 9-10 1977 storm was pretty memorable around here. NYC only recorded a trace but you didn’t  have to go that far north and east to see measurable snow.  One town in the Hudson Valley although at a high elevation received 27 inches from that storm. One town in CT 20 inches. Sick stuff for almost the middle of May it was crazy. 

Plenty of tree and power line damage. A spring version of October 2011 with less aerial coverage and further north.

 

 

 

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

No no no, it gets worse if the thread actually gets deleted.

If the thread gets deleted, I'll delete that person.  

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of tree and power line damage. A spring version of October 2011 with less aerial coverage and further north.

 

 

 

It’s an interesting question as to why early season snow events seem more rare now than late season ones. The last big early season storm that also hit the coast hard was Boxing Day 2010, 5 days after winter began. 

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s an interesting question as to why early season snow events seem more rare now than late season ones. The last big early season storm that also hit the coast hard was Boxing Day 2010, 5 days after winter began. 

It seems like we have trouble getting cold in early. It’s amazing how many snow events we have had lately without help from arctic air. 

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The 0Z GFS and the Canadian guidance (GGEM and RGEM) have a much more consolidated coastal low and is therefore more closer to the coast. Trends at H5 are interesting to say the least. We'll see what the Euro says later. Nevertheless because of the northern stream orientation across SE Canada there is a definitely a limit on how much further west it can go. If we were to get impacted by this storm, it would be more towards the day on Sunday. Chances of even getting a small impact from this system are pretty slim I would say, but still needs to be watched.

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On ‎4‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 3:22 AM, Paragon said:

That might be the most truly anomalous weather event our area has ever experienced. Even ahead of Sandy or the 1938 hurricane.  Though the October snowstorm in NYC and Western LI comes close, but combined with the temps and the blizzard conditions I think the April 1982 blizzard edges that out.

 

My list of the most anomalous metro area weather events.....

1) April 1982 Blizzard

2) October 2011 Snowstorm

3) 1938 Hurricane

4) Sandy

5) 2016 Blizzard

6) 1992 Noreaster

7) 1962 Noreaster

8) 1888 Blizzard

9) 1920 Snowstorm

10) Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane

 

This NNJ expat would move 1888 much farther up the list, due mainly to cold that was probably even more anomalous than April 1982.  The latter storm fell with temps falling thru the 20s, and 4/7/82's max of 30 is tied with 4/5/1881 for April's coldest.  1888 not only had more snow and stronger winds, but temps fell from 33 to 8 on the big snow day (3/12) then had a max of 12 (with another 3" snow) on 3/13.  That max is only #2 but came 8 days later than the 10° max in 1872.
Not a single event, but Jan. 19-Feb. 4, 1961 featured NYC's longest spell of subfreezing temps (high 1/19-2/3 was only 29) but was bookended by major snowstorms.  That 2nd storm brought NNJ's tallest snowpack by a wide margin, and IIRC only the post-Christmas snow of 1947 beat the NYC depth on 2/4/61 - by 1".  (Just my opinion, but I rank that '47 dump as the city's greatest snowfall, though it's now bumped back to #3.   The max depth recorded in '47 was greater than for either of the 2 later storms.  I think that if it had been measured the way 2006 and 2016 had been, its total would've been close to 30".)

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Incase anyone here is left that cares, the 12z NAM is a complete miss to the South. No snow outside of the higher elevations of the Appalachians. 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I miss the models from earlier. We could of had a nice snow event tomorrow.

Too bad, because it's rare to have such cold air (850s near -10C) in April. Usually the issue is temperature, not getting enough precipitation (suppression). But this time the PV feature over eastern Canada crushes everything.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Incase anyone here is left that cares, the 12z NAM is a complete miss to the South. No snow outside of the higher elevations of the Appalachians. 

NJ I care,,,,,,lol,,,but I have a vested interest driving back from Florida tomorrow,,so thanks

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