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NewYorkweatherfan

April 7-8 2018 jinx

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We get more snow here tomorrow morning than on Saturday.

Enough of a bump north though to keep hope alive that the seasonal north trend might continue. On the 6z NAM you had to go down to Ocean county to get into accumulating snow. 12z gets the edge of accumulating snow up close to NYC. Pretty good bump north.

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Enough of a bump north though to keep hope alive that the seasonal north trend might continue. On the 6z NAM you had to go down to Ocean county to get into accumulating snow. 12z gets the edge of accumulating snow up close to NYC. Pretty good bump north.

True but also appears to be a much weaker system overall. Even area well south dont see much

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Enough of a bump north though to keep hope alive that the seasonal north trend might continue. On the 6z NAM you had to go down to Ocean county to get into accumulating snow. 12z gets the edge of accumulating snow up close to NYC. Pretty good bump north.
But what is coming north? Anafront snow? There is hardly even a wave along the front.....this is a completely different evolution and depiction than we saw 24 hours ago. Agree with NJ....more snow tomorrow. Maybe this bodes better for next week's threat somehow :-D
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31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
36 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:
Enough of a bump north though to keep hope alive that the seasonal north trend might continue. On the 6z NAM you had to go down to Ocean county to get into accumulating snow. 12z gets the edge of accumulating snow up close to NYC. Pretty good bump north.

But what is coming north? Anafront snow? There is hardly even a wave along the front.....this is a completely different evolution and depiction than we saw 24 hours ago. Agree with NJ....more snow tomorrow. Maybe this bodes better for next week's threat somehow :-D

yes, it has definitely changed.  Lighter precip amounts too-going to be difficult to accumulate much if that's the case with a daytime event and less than .50 of LE.

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7 minutes ago, sferic said:

12z gfs @48 slightly north?

@54 shunted south and east

basically an anafrontal system-a bit of snow and that's about it...clears out by 12-2pm Saturday...

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This won’t really stick especially around the city unless the rates are moderate or better. A few tenths of an inch liquid over 9 or 12 hours won’t mean anything. Away from the city that could be an inch or two especially if it’s early morning. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

UKMET now has a big coastal storm Sunday, but it's a miss.  Has little to nothing for Saturday morning now.

It’s been on that train to an extent now since yesterday. It’s had a different evolution to the entire process 

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24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm calling it. Time of Death 4/5/18 12am

Spring is here

It’s currently 42F. I’ll consider winter dead once it’s comfortably in the 50s again, which looks like it should be later next week (fingers crossed).

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58 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This won’t really stick especially around the city unless the rates are moderate or better. A few tenths of an inch liquid over 9 or 12 hours won’t mean anything. Away from the city that could be an inch or two especially if it’s early morning. 

I'm satisfied we had our April snowstorm already lol and the most snow that's ever fallen here post equinox.  But if we dont get the Saturday storm (even DC looks like 1-3 inches now) there's a chance we could still get the Tuesday storm before we transition over to summer?

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7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I'm satisfied we had our April snowstorm already lol and the most snow that's ever fallen here post equinox.  But if we dont get the Saturday storm (even DC looks like 1-3 inches now) there's a chance we could still get the Tuesday storm before we transition over to summer?

certainly possible as the cold is still impressive by then....

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

certainly possible as the cold is still impressive by then....

12z GGEM gives heavy snow monday night. But I believe it's the only model that's high on this threat at the moment.

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21 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I'm satisfied we had our April snowstorm already lol and the most snow that's ever fallen here post equinox.  But if we dont get the Saturday storm (even DC looks like 1-3 inches now) there's a chance we could still get the Tuesday storm before we transition over to summer?

I had asked that question yesterday about the snowiest spring ever figuring we were close at 13.9 inches but Bluewave posted today we are in the number two spot with 14.5 being the record. With NYC being that close we have to go for it now, somehow some way. 

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

12z GGEM gives heavy snow monday night. But I believe it's the only model that's high on this threat at the moment.

would need to see a real model get on board...the GGEM has low verification scores.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

would need to see a real model get on board...the GGEM has low verification scores.

Despite the low verification scores, there have been several snow events this season where the GGEM was the first model to pick up them. The model certainly is useful. Not that I'm high on the monday night threat.

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The 12z Euro gave DC virtually nothing. It's probably too far South, but you would have liked to see at least Southern NJ into the significant precip for hope of a last minute shift North.

 

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

2-4

Skewed by 3 or 4 over amped ARW members.

Majority are well South like every other model.

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This is why I said yesterday that we would rather take our chances with a more amplified system.

Those of you that wanted to trade the good dynamics in order to tick off a few degrees in temps got what they deserved.

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