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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

 

Richmond's Biggest April Snowfalls:

1. 10.0", April 3, 1915
2. 2.7", April 11-12, 1918
3. 2.0", April 28, 1898 and April 12, 1940
5. 1.2", April 13, 1957 and April 1, 1964
7. 1.0", April 7, 2007
8. 0.6", April 7, 1971
9. 0.2", April 9, 1914, April 16, 1935, April 21, 1953, April 9, 1982, and April 7, 1990

Notes:

1. The April 28, 1898 snowfall resulted from a severe nor'easter. Further north, Cape May, NJ reported trees blown down and "outbuildings in the country" having been "demolished" by the high winds. At that location, 3" of snow fell before the snow changed to a combination of heavy rain mixed with sleet.

2. The April 12, 1940 storm brought 1.3" to Norfolk. That is Norfolk's largest April snowfall on record.

3. The March 30-April 1, 1964 three-day period saw 7.2" snow fall at Richmond.

 

 

Hi Mr. Southerland. Do you have data on Raleigh's 10 largest april snows? I'd be curious! Thank you!

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4 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

yeah it was weird how people kept saying the two like they were separate i thought i was missing something

It's not a 1:1 correlation.  If you get a better cold press ahead of the system but also trend towards more separation and a stronger wave then pushing the boundary back north it's possible to get a south and stinger solution. That was what we saw a few days ago when for a time the models had this as a Saturday night system coming from the west blasting into the established cold. That was a best case scenario. So there are more variables but in general a weaker wave will be south and stronger north 90% of the time. 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

ICON is the lulz... EZF and south get the snows.. north of there basically nada

Yea if the rest of today's guidance trends to that it's close to game over north of Baltimore. This can recover but it's not going to shift 150 miles the last 24 hours. We've been there needing that much before and it ends in a tease. Need to keep this hanging around right at our doorstep so the final 50 mile north shift helps. 

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I wouldn’t hang my hat on any one solution  until after 12z Friday. Many pieces to the puzzle. For certain though the NS is stronger and the cold airmass may be stronger than previously modeled. That would suppress this system and not amplify. Looks like what is happening in the guidance, but just 24 hours ago we were dealing with northern trends bordering Ptype issues. Still a range of uncertainty and like my earlier post we are dealing with a dynamic spring system and it can still trend back north.  

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

so far everything that showmethesnow has projected has gone the opposite...this storm has lost its juice. Wow...

I have been wrong more times then I would like to count. That said I am sticking with my thoughts on this juicing up somewhat and the axis of heaviest snow being located between DC and the PA line regardless of what the models show at this time. 

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Ugh is what I feel looking at the 6z and 12z guidance. Not because it's south but why. No separation behind the NS wave and barely even a ripple along the front anymore. It's becoming just a kink on a pressing boundary with some anafront snow. Not even a legit storm. 

If I don't see some improvements tonight I'll start to kiss this goodbye. But then we can move on to the real threat next week!!!

:) 

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38 minutes ago, Ji said:

worthless ensembles...models...i could see us not getting even .10 from this event

You would save yourself a lot of angst by accepting that models do not predict weather but rather give examples of all possible outcomes

models have  predicted 0-15" of snow 4/5 times this season and they have been right each time, mostly along  the 0.

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ugh is what I feel looking at the 6z and 12z guidance. Not because it's south but why. No separation behind the NS wave and barely even a ripple along the front anymore. It's becoming just a kink on a pressing boundary with some anafront snow. Not even a legit storm. 

If I don't see some improvements tonight I'll start to kiss this goodbye. But then we can move on to the real threat next week!!!

:) 

Yeah middle part of the jet is flatter, that is what is causing the precip reduction.

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