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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, once we start the slide back, there's no stopping it.  Especially in April.   The EPS will slowly start to slide back in 12 hour increments.  GFS is next.   Not being a deb at all..I'll keep watching and there's always hope.  If this was Jan or Feb, no way I'd give up.  But we're already at a precarious stage as it is.  

So if anyone expresses doubt or cynicism re chances of snow but says there not being a deb downer, that's alright then?

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8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Are you kidding. If that was the only piece of guidance I’d say we were going to get shellacked. Some big hits in there. Not a ton of fails either. 

But the ops should be in deadly range now so can’t dimiss them.  GFS especially.  

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30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice to see the mix of suppressed solutions with flush hits and some northern hits on the EPS.  

Also some misses in there. Not convinced that there is any consistent trend that won't suddenly change when the thing comes onshore.

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z NAM isn't good unless your own the MD/PA border. And even then, positive snow depth map is ugly.

NAM + Euro trends are awful.

Verbatim its still a few inches for the far northern tier. Man happy hour GFS needs to stop the bleeding up in here.

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

NAM sucks.

Congrats NE PA and NE.

It lost the two wave idea only problem is it lost the second wave and kept the first wave which comes across too fast before the front can press. But it's still evolving and vastly different then the globals so I'm not concerned yet. We're 24 hours away from taking the nam seriously. 

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

NAM + Euro trends are awful.

Verbatim its still a few inches for the far northern tier. Man happy hour GFS needs to stop the bleeding up in here.

NAM doesn't count.  It hiccups too often to judge trends.  But it can easily come back.  I think the usual slower southern stream trend may work in our favor this time since it will allow the coldfront to get further southeast before the precip starts.  The NAM maybe kicking things out too fast.

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28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No silly.  I can only do that.  

LOL. That was not an attack Stormtracker. I feel the same way others do when the trends go against us

 I used to hate reading a particular poster on this board because he was very very good and very popular on this board and a pro, and could always cut thru to the real deal, which meant, most of the time, no snow for us. That would take the fun out of tracking. So apologies to anyone I may have done that to today.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It lost the two wave idea only problem is it lost the second wave and kept the first wave which comes across too fast before the front can press. But it's still evolving and vastly different then the globals so I'm not concerned yet. We're 24 hours away from taking the nam seriously. 

It's far from throw in the towel time. But the 12z GFS did bump north with the best snow accums, and the Euro after yesterday's 12z run has gone incrementally the "wrong" way. Even the epic 0z run had the heavy snow area further north and was warmer. The NAM is on the edge of its usefulness but it cannot be completely discounted. All along I was expecting a north trend, with your area up into southern PA the most likely place outside of the far western mountains for several inches to fall. I know the air mass pressing in is cold, but timing the wave(or waves) moving along the front with the cold is always a challenge, and yes, throw in the fact that we are well into April by Saturday...

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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

NAM doesn't count.  It hiccups too often to judge trends.  But it can easily come back.  I think the usual slower southern stream trend may work in our favor this time since it will allow the coldfront to get further southeast before the precip starts.  The NAM maybe kicking things out too fast.

One thing I don't like about the trend is the high is moving east more slowly every run.    Will be harder to get a decent event with the front oriented more N-S

m4Qf9wt.gif

 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is a dumb argument. Yes the radiation will make it harder. But it doesn't mean it can't stick. If it's light or 35 degrees it won't. But if it's thumping at 32 it will. 

Look at places with elevation at our latitude. They get snow this late all the time. They get the same radiation. Their elevation makes it easier to get cold enough air this late though despite the increased radiation. But when it snows the radiation doesn't stop accumulation. Especially because if it's snowing hard the radiation is muted by the thick cloud cover and precip. 

So yes it will make it harder. But the biggest issue getting snow in April is getting cold enough. Places with elevation at our latitude prove it can stick if it snows hard. 

Tell that to Subtropics since he’s the one who doesn’t understand all of this.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's far from throw in the towel time. But the 12z GFS did bump north with the best snow accums, and the Euro after yesterday's 12z run has gone incrementally the "wrong" way. Even the epic 0z run had the heavy snow area further north and was warmer. The NAM is on the edge of its usefulness but it cannot be completely discounted. All along I was expecting a north trend, with your area up into southern PA the most likely place outside of the far western mountains for several inches to fall. I know the air mass pressing in is cold, but timing the wave(or waves) moving along the front with the cold is always a challenge, and yes, throw in the fact that we are well into April by Saturday...

I'm worried about the north trend too. I said this morning that I didn't want to see any more north move today or tonight. And already that failed. I wanted the axis to stay south of D.C. until tomorrow. Even then I felt by gametime DC would be the southern end of the accumulating snow. With the move today I'm worried up here might end up south even. 

But...it's not because of the nam. The nam is north because it's racing the wave across way too fast before the front can press. Maybe it's onto somethaing. There is a trend to speed up the wave but nothing yet to that degree. And just the last run the nam had a two wave idea with a big snow in southern VA. That's gone. So it's jumping around. The north trend is real and a problem but I don't trust the nam a lick outside 48 hours. 

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