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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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pretty expected.  friday's temps are around 60 which is, ya know, 28 degrees above freezing.  best case is we end as snow and it's cold enough to accumulate.  we'll see what euro does at 0z...maybe it can shift slightly south again.  definitely don't want more north, that's for sure.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Why?  That means more daytime precipitation.  

going from 60 to a snow sounding is difficult here even in january.  i would think allowing the cold air to get more entrenched would help.  on the gfs, the sounding at midnight still had surface temps in the 40s.  i guess there's various ways we can score or bust, but just think we'd want some time between the cold air intrusion and the low.  also, i typically prefer daytime snow even if it means some melting.  maybe a slower onset would allow snow into saturday evening as well which could help accumulations.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

going for 60 to a snow sounding is difficult here even in january.  i would think allowing the cold air to get more entrenched would help.  on the gfs, the sounding at midnight still had surface temps in the 40s.  i guess there's various ways we can score or bust, but just think we'd want some time between the cold air intrusion and the low.

Yeah.  I remember when we first started looking at this it was almost 528 thickness near DC with a pressing boundary.  This has morphed into something else.  And yes waiting for the cold is never a great scenario.  

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we actually legit torch on the euro during friday.  i'm seeing temps near 70 to the south.  looks like the friday temps are higher this run, so it may not be so much about the strength of the high but how much of a climb down we have from friday's temps.

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