showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 06Z Nam's say 'No snow for you. Nor you. Nor you.'. Outside of the mountains and the VA/NC line (mostly on the coast) there is nothing to see. And the snow shown is paltry to say the least. But the 06Z GFS will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 This thread is a disaster. 37 pages and most wont see a flake. PrinceFrederickWx- this may have been your first ever thread, but it will be your last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: This thread is a disaster. 37 pages and most wont see a flake. PrinceFrederickWx- this may have been your first ever thread, but it will be your last. Did you miss the part where I said the 06Z GFS will save us? If not that then the 12Z suite? Aren't you being a little hard on PrinceFredrick? After all it was a Nina this winter so he should be allowed a Mulligan. In fact everyone this year should be allowed Mulligans. Except for Ji. He has 25 threads this year with only one success to show for it. Pretty crappy success rate. Him we should put on the NO THREAD FOR YOU LIST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 9 hours ago, BristowWx said: It’s over isn’t it. I mean for everyone north of EZF. Our hope is squarely on a system to pull north with a positively tilted trough. Can’t see how that happens. It was over once we went from an over running event to an intensifying coastal. The teases we saw yesterday morning were because they were showing slightly better height increases in front of the trough allowing a little more latitude gain with that low. But that was nothing more then a head fake. Feels like we have dealt with this type of evolution with systems on the models a couple of dozen times this winter. I think the next La Nina winter we have I am just going to sit it out as far as model tracking. Can't stand the aggravation. Bahhh... who am I kidding. I will be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 06Z GFS was a no go. Even shifted slightly south with the snowfall maps and cut down on the totals. At this rate about the only places that may score a little something will be the mountains on the West VA and VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Last post. Someone lock it up- and I mean anything winter related. We done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Last post. Someone lock it up- and I mean anything winter related. We done! Quitter! And don't look now but around day 9 looks interesting at 500 mb on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 06Z GFS was a no go. Even shifted slightly south with the snowfall maps and cut down on the totals. At this rate about the only places that may score a little something will be the mountains on the West VA and VA border. Nice job with this system 🤡 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Nice job with this system Yep. Had it's number from the get-go. Hurry up and start a thread on the day 9 threat before they let someone else start it. That should kill it pretty quick and I can start planning for camping this year. eta: And while you are at it can you also start a thread on the day 12 threat that the 06Z GFS is showing? Kill two birds with one stone as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Now this is a fitting end to “winter” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Entire 60 hour run of the 06z NAM 3k has a T of precip for DC. This trended poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Has anyone said this reminds them of January 25, 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 7, 2018 Author Share Posted April 7, 2018 This winter’s put me firmly in the @Tenman Johnson camp when it comes to models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 33 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: This winter’s put me firmly in the @Tenman Johnson camp when it comes to models. Well it is true that models tend to show about every possible outcome for a specific threat if followed from 10 days out. Thats simply the nature of the beast. This winter was pretty simple though. Ninas generally suck for this region, and we all knew that going in. If we had a full-on locked in hostile pattern in place, then we would not have been teased with all the potential winter threats- there would have been very little to track. We had good to really good H5 looks a lot of the time though. The ultimate fails were a mostly function of the Nina base state. In the end, despite all the teases that lead to nothing, it was decent for most. If you are near or at snowfall climo, or even above in some cases, its hard to complain. And we did have some decent cold. Its all over now. Bring on summer with a persistent -NAO, then keep that going with a developing Nino into fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like some snow returns developing on radar in Carroll county and York county and north Balt Getting a few flurries now. Nasty out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Flurries in Columbia. April HECS verified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Here too. Temp keeps dropping ...feels like winter . My first baseball scrimmage( over 30)is tomorrow morning at 8am . Suppose to be 25 F ..probably won't go. No flurries here yet, but I just went outside to fill the bird feeder and between the gray skies, dropping temperatures, and smoky smell from the neighbor's smoldering fire pit, it looks and feels like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Cold, breezy, and bare ground. Yep, looks just like winter in central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Very fine graupel in Fairfax. 3rd biggest event of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 I was in the city last night, and it was 67. I couldn't believe how warm it was. I figure it's a lot chillier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 46 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Here too. Temp keeps dropping ...feels like winter . My first baseball scrimmage( over 30)is tomorrow morning at 8am . Suppose to be 25 F ..probably won't go. I hung up the spikes 9 years and never looked backed. You must love the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Flurries in N. Bethesda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: It's not over ... There's a small signal day 10-15 on the gefs. Ninj'd by @showmethesnow Congrats Vermont... lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Snow pellets in Gainesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Typical HECS conditions here: lots of wind and no precip. Looking forward to my daughter's first soccer game today. 38F and windy should feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Flurries. 39 at 9:58am. Still have not had the grass cut. Latest in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Spits of snow grains, but just spits -- and then it stops. Exactly 40.0 outside. Three hours ago at 7am it was 43.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well it is true that models tend to show about every possible outcome for a specific threat if followed from 10 days out. Thats simply the nature of the beast. This winter was pretty simple though. Ninas generally suck for this region, and we all knew that going in. If we had a full-on locked in hostile pattern in place, then we would not have been teased with all the potential winter threats- there would have been very little to track. We had good to really good H5 looks a lot of the time though. The ultimate fails were a mostly function of the Nina base state. In the end, despite all the teases that lead to nothing, it was decent for most. If you are near or at snowfall climo, or even above in some cases, its hard to complain. And we did have some decent cold. Its all over now. Bring on summer with a persistent -NAO, then keep that going with a developing Nino into fall. I love to analyze the why behind the what but if you are the kind of person who only likes the what skip to the end for the cliffs notes version. The unabridged version of our struggles... Ninas suck here because we are at the perfect latitude to get stuck between the northern and southern jet when they don't play nice. Nina typically means a faster stronger NS which makes it hard to dig enough for us and even when we get some stj systems the odds of phasing are low with NS systems racing by too fast without digging and the odds of a NS vort being in a bad spot are high because their racing by just to our north all winter long. Then add in that the mountains to our west will kill any weak sauce waves. So we're stuck watching northern stream systems go to our north and stj waves stay to our south all winter. And when we do get a great h5 setup there is still an increased chance that there are too many NS votes flying around to get one system to consolidate into a healthy storm. 1996 was an extreme anomaly. Getting a perfect AO and NAO helped. Having that in mid winter essentially pushed everything south making us the defacto New England that year. But I also think there had to be more too it. Luck maybe. Or the pdo lining up good for a Nina. Because in ninas we need nao help to get a warning event (the data is strong on that, barely any non nao snows in the last 20 Nina years) but even in a -nao we still tend to struggle more then in non Nina nao periods. 2001 the nao did nothing for us. 2011 we got scraps compared to NYC. Same this March. Nina snow climo is very consistent. Yes there is variability (taking out 96) between dreadful and mediocre but we will do worse then everyone around us almost guaranteed. Even when we get a mediocre one it will feel awful because it's a struggle and to get to average probably required a fairly cold active winter because we're destined to fail 90% of threats in a Nina so even when we get a near normal one like this year it feels crappy because we failed so much and all around us has a great winter. The cliffs notes version: Ninas suck here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted April 7, 2018 Share Posted April 7, 2018 Disorganized forcing this AM, as was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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