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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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59 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i don't think everyone here knows everyone and names, etc, and who's kidding and what's locker room talk, etc, but i do think some of that is better for banter.  i'm good with all of it except the rudeness.  it's a turn off and probably makes no sense to anyone reading this thread who doesn't know someone offline.

maybe the euro will save what's becoming a stanky thread.

I cared back in winter when this was insufferable months on end but now F it. It's April. Who cares. But hopefully maybe we can all agree on some ground roles next fall before things get started and then stick to them and empower mods to enforce them. 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:
He is just trolling 

Figured as much. We have a growing number of bad posters in the forum

Weird. I have a growing number of beers that cause me to post crap in here...mostly. LOLz. On to happy hour GooFuS! :drunk:

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I cared back in winter when this was insufferable months on end but now F it. It's April. Who cares. But hopefully maybe we can all agree on some ground roles next fall before things get started and then stick to them and empower mods to enforce them. 

Dude you've had it out for me Day 1. I don't think ground rules will keep you from being snarky towards certain posters. 

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Day 6 mega-storm dwindles to fringe-clouds event by onset.  Where have I seen that before?  Oh, about 15 times this (awful) winter.  LOL.  I probably have received at least 60" of inside D6 snow this year (especially Euro).  My final on-the-ground total will be 9" for the season.  Same goes for all modeled QPF.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Aren't you supposed to be working on that list???

there was a map yesterday by the 12z EPS that gave my backyard a 72% chance for 3 or more inches of snow. The ensembles have really been unhelpful this year more than any year i remember

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

there was a map yesterday by the 12z EPS that gave my backyard a 72% chance for 3 or more inches of snow. The ensembles have really been unhelpful this year more than any year i remember

What are you talking about they said there was a 28% chance this would happen!!!

lol

yea models have been unreliable and frustrating this year.  That's often the case in progressive fast flow NS dominant patterns. What makes this year frustrating is how most of the events underperformed compared to potential. If a few had busted the other way and we were all sitting on 30"+ we wouldn't care as much. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

What are you talking about they said there was a 28% chance this would happen!!!

lol

yea models have been unreliable and frustrating this year.  That's often the case in progressive fast flow NS dominant patterns. What makes this year frustrating is how most of the events underperformed compared to potential. If a few had busted the other way and we were all sitting on 30"+ we wouldn't care as much. 

lol....someone also posted an image of the GFS. It has 16 hits and 4 shutouts and the first thing i said was "wow...thats alot of shutouts"....turns out this season that no matter what the odds..take the least snowiest solution makes you a genius(like h2o)

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So with any chance of a historic event long gone, we have another miserable, rainy/ sleety/mangled snowflakey Friday night and Saturday to look forward to. Be nice if this front would grow some balls and get this crap out of our area down into Richmond or south by Saturday. Need a nice dry weekend. I would have posted this in banter but..well heh, this pretty much is banter.

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So with any chance of a historic event long gone, we have another miserable, rainy/ sleety/mangled snowflakey Friday night and Saturday to look forward to. Be nice if this front would grow some balls and get this crap out of our area down into Richmond or south by Saturday. Need a nice dry weekend. I would have posted this in banter but..well heh, this pretty much is banter.

Yea but then it would be 35-40 with a breeze. Not pleasant anyways. Either way a nice weekend isn't in the cards. The Monday snow will make up for it. 

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol....someone also posted an image of the GFS. It has 16 hits and 4 shutouts and the first thing i said was "wow...thats alot of shutouts"....turns out this season that no matter what the odds..take the least snowiest solution makes you a genius(like h2o)

One thing I think is frustrating about NWP now compared to 10-20 years ago is their inconsistency to their own biases.  They are more accurate today in that any given run is more likely to be right.  But when they are wrong they are wrong in inconsistent and unpredictable ways.  They used to have bad but fairly reliable biases and if you knew how to correct for them you could peice together how things would trend.  Now they can go any which way.  Over amped one time then under the next.  Too cold then too hot.  It's much harder to predict the model error now then it was at least for me and that makes it harder to forecast past 48 hours.  I wonder if the higher resolution combined with updates to correct biases have caused that?

I kid you not yesterday when everyone was freaking out over a north trend I was thinking "the U.K. had been a south non event for several runs what if it's right". I'm not giving myself credit I definitely thought north was the bigger problem but I had the thought. 

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