BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 This 3K run looks ok for DC but pretty fringed for Baltimore-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Waiting for the cold front to crash and see what precip is left over.... this has gone from bad to worse. My bar is now two hours of snow tv. Which is still cool for April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 2-3” verbatim on 3K snow map for those that like those. We should retire the Euro as an east coast US model. It had a good run. Only about 60 inches in 3 day modeled snow this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: This 3K run looks ok for DC but pretty fringed for Baltimore-north Its weak and drier and comes at the worst time. If this played out its mostly snow tv with coatings here and there. You can see looking at the low level temps, compared to last run, its overall warmer- only around freezing at the surface in the places its snowing decently- elsewhere its mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The icon, panasonic, and cras will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its weak and drier and comes at the worst time. If this played out its mostly snow tv with coatings here and there. You can see looking at the low level temps, compared to last run, its overall warmer- only around freezing at the surface in the places its snowing decently- elsewhere its mid 30s. pretty legit temps, though, once they crash. if there can be some decent rates left, i think it could stick during the daytime. that last march event was a little more fringe-y temp-wise. the moderate stuff was sticking with no issues. it's the light stuff that has no chance in that daytime April brightness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its weak and drier and comes at the worst time. If this played out its mostly snow tv with coatings here and there. You can see looking at the low level temps, compared to last run, its overall warmer- only around freezing at the surface in the places its snowing decently- elsewhere its mid 30s. Yeah that’s true. Just disappointing to see this go from a heavy thump of precip to around .5 or less. As others say give me the precip bomb and I’ll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I don't like the trajectory today as much. These waves are much better when aligned west to east not SW to NE. It's way easier to get cross boundary flow when the wave is moving west to east. Even a weak wave will get enough south flow in front to get adequate cross boundary flow for good lift. With a SW to NE boundary it requires a more amplified system to get the flow back across the boundary to create the same lift. This has been trending more towards a wave riding along a SW to NE boundary vs a wave riding ssw to ene and that's not so good. Still time to see more changes but that hasn't been an exciting development to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: pretty legit temps, though, once they crash. if there can be some decent rates left, i think it could stick during the daytime. that last march event was a little more fringe-y temp-wise. It was during peak sun hours, but it was puking huge dendrites most of the time- and still struggled to accumulate for those hours. Now imagine this *as advertised* weak sauce event with temps at 32-33 in mid afternoon, in April.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Yeah that’s true. Just disappointing to see this go from a heavy thump of precip to around .5 or less. As others say give me the precip bomb and I’ll take my chances but its still the NAM at range and changed quite a bit from 6z. so maybe onto to something but no reason to get too upset about it. the last event, the 2 storm deal in March, it looked good until almost game time literally as you probably remember...all of the guidance did I believe until Friday night then the cracks started to appear..so we run the risk of big changes closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The icon, panasonic, and cras will save us. no worries the JMA says we're golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 relax. it will come north and get juiced. DT said hammer tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, H2O said: relax. it will come north and get juiced. DT said hammer tip. Sorry... April sun angle and the such. Its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Models are now taking into account the SAL from Africa. Thats why its drying up. Tropical season can't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The New England NS system trending west and stronger is limiting how amplified this wave can be too. But that could change too. Minor differences are doing this. I'm ok with this staying just south of us today. The north adjustment started in earnest at 36 hours the last few times. But I don't want it going any further south. I only expect a 50 mile north move. So if the northern edge ends up south of D.C. by tonight then northern MD is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 we all worry about the north being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The New England NS system trending west and stronger is limiting how amplified this wave can be too. But that could change too. Minor differences are doing this. I'm ok with this staying just south of us today. The north adjustment started in earnest at 36 hours the last few times. But I don't want it going any further south. I only expect a 50 mile north move. So if the northern edge ends up south of D.C. by tonight then northern MD is in trouble. Here we go again!! Sitting inside of 50 hours hoping a NS PEST doesn't crap on the parade (albeit an abnormal parade for this time of year, lol).....I echo @BaltimoreWxGuy: I cannot STAND La Niñas. Mercy they're awful for down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Sorry... April sun angle and the such. Its over lol, sun angle is the real deal though. even that last march storm, there was bare pavement under trees while it was snowing, and it's noticeably brighter out when cloudy in april than in january. i'm sure all that affects the entire process of the crystals from cloud to ground. we can still get accumulation, but i'm fully on board the "we need rates in april" train, especially after a day with temps near 60. i'd be completely satisfied with snow tv while checking out some cherry blossoms. for street stickage...i'm pretty sure we're gonna need the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 So many model riders in here. Good Lordy. April and 500 mb say storm is coming north. NYC should be worried. Philly should be weary. Baltimore to dc I still think is golden. Typical boundary issues and model fluctuations as multiple players enter the playing field at the same time. 0z tonight goes south again, start to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Here we go again!! Sitting inside of 50 hours hoping a NS PEST doesn't crap on the parade (albeit an abnormal parade for this time of year, lol).....I echo @BaltimoreWxGuy: I cannot STAND La Niñas. Mercy they're awful for down here The only thing they're good for are cooler winters when we build into El Ninos. that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, H2O said: we all worry about the north being fringed. You worry about your yard and I'll worry about mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many model riders in here. Good Lordy. April and 500 mb say storm is coming north. NYC should be worried. Philly should be weary. Baltimore to dc I still think is golden. Typical boundary issues and model fluctuations as multiple players enter the playing field at the same time. 0z tonight goes south again, start to worry. I mean it’s not even just about north/south though. It’s seeming to be less precip too than early yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: The only thing they're good for are cooler winters when we build into El Ninos. that's it What do you mean, exactly? Cooler summers before El Niños? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: What do you mean, exactly? Cooler summers before El Niños? Yes, from what I've heard La Nina to Nino summers are cooler, Summer 2009 being an example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 it looks like the entire storm is pretty much cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: So many model riders in here. Good Lordy. April and 500 mb say storm is coming north. NYC should be worried. Philly should be weary. Baltimore to dc I still think is golden. Typical boundary issues and model fluctuations as multiple players enter the playing field at the same time. 0z tonight goes south again, start to worry. I don't disagree with your overall point but given the trajectory of this wave the northwest 1/3 of this forum is in about the same boat as NYC. Baltimore is in about the same boat as Philly. And the D.C. South part of this forum has an advantage over both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, H2O said: Models are now taking into account the SAL from Africa. Thats why its drying up. Tropical season can't be denied. one day you might contribute to the board..and actually be funny too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I mean it’s not even just about north/south though. It’s seeming to be less precip too than early yesterday. The two are linked though. More cold press will suppress. Suppression will mean a weaker system. Less precip. A weaker system also will push or resist the boundary press less. This trend south and weaker. So with boundary waves south and weaker are synonymous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: it looks like the entire storm is pretty much cancelled Your specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: The two are linked though. More cold press will suppress. Suppression will mean a weaker system. Less precip. A weaker system also will push or resist the boundary press less. This trend south and weaker. So with boundary waves south and weaker are synonymous. yeah it was weird how people kept saying the two like they were separate i thought i was missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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