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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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Models are likely not done fluctuating on the target snow areas. Couple things to factor in. For one we are dealing with a highly anomalous cold air intrusion. It’s a spring system so the battleground between the cold and warm is likely to be difficult to ascertain in the guidance. Convection breaking out on the boundary over the MS Valley could be overdone which can force the boundary too far south. If it’s underdone, boundary can progress to set up further north. Plus there are several pieces of energy coming into the trough from the PAC NW and Plains. A lot of moving parts, but either way we will be dealing with quite a dynamic system. 

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Richmond's Biggest April Snowfalls:

1. 10.0", April 3, 1915
2. 2.7", April 11-12, 1918
3. 2.0", April 28, 1898 and April 12, 1940
5. 1.2", April 13, 1957 and April 1, 1964
7. 1.0", April 7, 2007
8. 0.6", April 7, 1971
9. 0.2", April 9, 1914, April 16, 1935, April 21, 1953, April 9, 1982, and April 7, 1990

Notes:

1. The April 28, 1898 snowfall resulted from a severe nor'easter. Further north, Cape May, NJ reported trees blown down and "outbuildings in the country" having been "demolished" by the high winds. At that location, 3" of snow fell before the snow changed to a combination of heavy rain mixed with sleet.

2. The April 12, 1940 storm brought 1.3" to Norfolk. That is Norfolk's largest April snowfall on record.

3. The March 30-April 1, 1964 three-day period saw 7.2" snow fall at Richmond.


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2 hours ago, mattie g said:

I couldn't care less whether it actually snows or not on Saturday. I'm only interested insofar as I need to be the jackpot - whether that's 1" or 10". It's it's nothing anywhere, then that's fine, too.

#honestyisthebestpolicy

I tend to agree with you...but then I remember how tired I am of walking/running in temps in low 40s-low 50s, knowing that A. temps should be a bit higher at this point in the season, and B. I'm tired of being cold when stepping outside. 

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Hard for me to believe that anyone in this forum dosnt  care if  snows or not on Saturday.  I do believe however, allot of people here only care about being in the jackpot area.. Why? I don't know... (THEN AGAIN B))

Im in Richmond but,will be headed up to Leesburg on Sat. (So this could be fun, fun trip) 

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3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Hard for me to believe anyone in this forum that they don't care if actually snows or not on Saturday.  I do believe allot of people here only care about being in the jackpot area.. Why? I don't know... (THEN AGAIN B))

Im in Richmond but,will be headed up to Leesburg on Sat. (So this could be fun, fun trip) 

We here in Leesburg will welcome you with open arms to experience the JI Snowhole of NOVA.

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4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Hard for me to believe that anyone in this forum dosnt  care if  snows or not on Saturday.  I do believe however, allot of people here only care about being in the jackpot area.. Why? I don't know... (THEN AGAIN B))

Im in Richmond but,will be headed up to Leesburg on Sat. (So this could be fun, fun trip) 

it's been a long uneventful winter

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

 

Richmond's Biggest April Snowfalls:

1. 10.0", April 3, 1915
2. 2.7", April 11-12, 1918
3. 2.0", April 28, 1898 and April 12, 1940
5. 1.2", April 13, 1957 and April 1, 1964
7. 1.0", April 7, 2007
8. 0.6", April 7, 1971
9. 0.2", April 9, 1914, April 16, 1935, April 21, 1953, April 9, 1982, and April 7, 1990

Notes:

1. The April 28, 1898 snowfall resulted from a severe nor'easter. Further north, Cape May, NJ reported trees blown down and "outbuildings in the country" having been "demolished" by the high winds. At that location, 3" of snow fell before the snow changed to a combination of heavy rain mixed with sleet.

2. The April 12, 1940 storm brought 1.3" to Norfolk. That is Norfolk's largest April snowfall on record.

3. The March 30-April 1, 1964 three-day period saw 7.2" snow fall at Richmond.

 

 

How has Richmond done better in April than us lol

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starting to get a clearer idea of how this will unfold.  assuming we actually get a storm, it's going to be a race of cold vs the low to the south.  the nam looks like it's about to show the initial part being a little warm and then a transition to snow.  the question is does the cold outpace the heavier precip?  i don't think we'll really know until tomorrow night when looking at the soundings.

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6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

The storm isn’t even getting its act together in the southern plains like it used to...just not anywhere near as juiced. Don’t think this NAM run will be great either 

 

4 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I guess it’s a little better with precip but the cold press isn’t as good either. Another wrinkle I guess 

instead of guessing what it will do, why not just let the model run. 

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I guess it’s a little better with precip but the cold press isn’t as good either. Another wrinkle I guess 

looks like it starts as rain, ends as snow.  can't imagine this gets too far north with that upper low over canada.  it's kind of not a great setup, but for april...i guess the setups look weirder (i.e., probably difficult to get a strong high over quebec).

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

looks like it starts as rain, ends as snow.  can't imagine this gets too far north with that upper low over canada.  it's kind of not a great setup, but for april...i guess the setups look weirder (i.e., probably difficult to get a strong high over quebec).

I just liked the earlier runs where this was a legit developing juiced storm in the southern plains. This run didn’t have that but I guess it wasn’t an awful run. 3” right thru DC and Balt now whether that really accumulates

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1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I just liked the earlier runs where this was a legit developing juiced storm in the southern plains. This run didn’t have that but I guess it wasn’t an awful run. 3” right thru DC and Balt now whether that really accumulates

i don't even mess with snow maps anymore.  they're garbage.  the precip map cobalt posted looks good for dc, but again...it's a race against the cold.  it's an interesting setup...but not a slam dunk.

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2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I just liked the earlier runs where this was a legit developing juiced storm in the southern plains. This run didn’t have that but I guess it wasn’t an awful run. 3” right thru DC and Balt now whether that really accumulates

I see your concern. Not the juiced 1" QPF beast the models were showing this time yesterday. Perhaps the early morning onset could help us out a bit

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I see your concern. Not the juiced 1" QPF beast the models were showing this time yesterday. Perhaps the early morning onset could help us out a bit

it's still wobbling.  other mets here have mentioned how the boundary will shift each run and that's exactly what's happening.  i would guess by 0z tonight there will be consistencies with that.  we're getting really close...within 48 hrs now lol.

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Let's just hope the NAM is wrong. Hopefully, the GFS calms nerves in the next 90 minutes.

For some reason, I’m riding the GFS to the finish line. Oh wait. I know why. Because America! And it’s been king all winter. Why stop now. 

B)

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