April 7-8 snow event

[Mordecai]

NAM

[showmethesnow]

As is to be expected at this range the EPS pretty much followed the op run. Overnight Eps 10:1 snowfall mean has followed the op in shifting the axis of the heaviest snow to the south through and just to the south of DC in an east to west trajectory. Mean is now sitting at 3" in DC. Going by Kuchera on the op (a more realistic depiction) the true axis of heaviest snowfall on the EPS would probably be adjusted northward (25 miles or so) as well. The control run is very similar to the op. Still quite a bit of play on the individual members (A few still favor north of the cities up to the PA line) though the majority do favor a DC or even farther south solution. Roughly 20-25% show solutions that would essentially be non events for the cities due to this system coming in during the day.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

The NAM 3K is pretty good for Baltimore-South. 4-7 inches. And ferrier map and snow depth change show close to the same amounts so that’s nice. 28 degrees during prime time snow too lol. The southern shift is a little concerning but usually we see a shift back a little north. 

[CAPE]

6z ICON is coming in further south and wimpy.

This thing might just end up a weak sauce flat wave on a front that produces little snow for anyone.

The Euro looked awful. Unless it all happens Sat night, a modeled 2-4 storm is basically snow tv.

[showmethesnow]

18 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

The NAM 3K is pretty good for Baltimore-South. 4-7 inches. And ferrier map and snow depth change show close to the same amounts so that’s nice. 28 degrees during prime time snow too lol. The southern shift is a little concerning but usually we see a shift back a little north. 

Ignoring the NAM's, the GFS and the Euro have had a tendency to over play the cold air filtering in this winter, even inside of 48-72 hours. So I am sort of expecting a shift northward as well. The question would be by how much. At this point I favor a 25-50 mile adjustment north and that is pretty much by going with what we just saw with the last system. Would not be surprised if we don't see this adjustment northward until under 24 hrs as well. If we do see this adjustment northward I think we could expect a little healthier low as it will have more room to intensify and consequently an increase of precip totals as well though no where near what the Euro was spitting out the other night (maybe .75-1" range through the cities?). 

[WVclimo]

My yard went from 1.00"+ QPF on the 00Z 12k NAM to 0.00" on the 06Z.  The south shift on all the models overnight has taken my area completely out of the game at this point.  Too late for all the folks who spent yesterday sending out notices of outdoor events being cancelled for Saturday.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

6z ICON is coming in further south and wimpy.

This thing might just end up a weak sauce flat wave on a front that produces little snow for anyone.

The Euro looked awful. Unless it all happens Sat night, a modeled 2-4 storm is basically snow tv.

Maybe. We’ve talked a lot about the Euro precip and snow maps but has anyone mentioned the temps on the Euro? Even though the GFS and NAM have shifted southward, the temps seem to be damn cold (upper 20s). Maybe even light to mod snow would still accumulate on grass with those temps. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Maybe. We’ve talked a lot about the Euro precip and snow maps but has anyone mentioned the temps on the Euro? Even though the GFS and NAM have shifted southward, the temps seem to be damn cold (upper 20s). Maybe even light to mod snow would still accumulate on grass with those temps. 

Not sure, but I think the 28-32 deg temps would likely occur later in the day/at night on Sat. Models generally dont do well with cold air arrival. If its a light event, then timing is a major factor. Areas that get snow later in the afternoon and evening would have a better shot.

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

6z ICON is coming in further south and wimpy.

This thing might just end up a weak sauce flat wave on a front that produces little snow for anyone.

The Euro looked awful. Unless it all happens Sat night, a modeled 2-4 storm is basically snow tv.

Really haven't followed the ICON that much this winter. Don't know, maybe it's right but from what little I have seen I haven't been overly impressed.  Will stick with the two I do know, GFS and the Euro and adjust for their bias' seen this winter. And if their bias' hold true we will see this come north a touch in the end.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Really haven't followed the ICON that much this winter. Don't know, maybe it's right but from what little I have seen I haven't been overly impressed.  Will stick with the two I do know, GFS and the Euro and adjust for their bias' seen this winter. And if their bias' hold true we will see this come north a touch in the end.

I dont disagree on a possible shift back north. The Euro is weak sauce now though, and that is a concern. Once it goes dry late in the game does it tend to juice up again?

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Not liking the early look on the GFS...Deff south and weaker with precip in Missouri. I know there’s been a rule of thumb that on west to east systems if St Louis gets good snow we do...they don’t on this run

[Brasiluvsnow]

amounts still very much in question but does anyone have a start time,,,,traveling I 95 from Florida on Saturday ,,,,,thanks in advance

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

This 6z GFS Deff looks like a trend toward the euro 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Pretty much less than 1” DC-north. Southern MD jackpot with 4. Damn who woulda thought a southern shift would kill us yesterday 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I dont disagree on a possible shift back north. The Euro is weak sauce now though, and that is a concern. Once it goes dry late in the game does it tend to juice up again?

If we see do a shift north as well as hopefully a subsequent stronger low (a little more room to grow) it should juice up again somewhat with better southerly flow over top the cold air.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Not to rant but these models really have stunk this year. Hate La Niña winters 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really haven't followed the ICON that much this winter. Don't know, maybe it's right but from what little I have seen I haven't been overly impressed.  Will stick with the two I do know, GFS and the Euro and adjust for their bias' seen this winter. And if their bias' hold true we will see this come north a touch in the end.

True but if they keep going south today, we’re gonna need more than just a touch north 

[mappy]

I told @stormtracker it would come back south 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If we see do a shift north as well as hopefully a subsequent stronger low (a little more room to grow) it should juice up again somewhat with better southerly flow over top the cold air.

Meh, I think this ends up a fairly weak wave on a strong cold front, which probably bodes well for the next event, which has real potential.

The other thread will be hopping again by later today, lol.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Meh, I think this ends up a fairly weak wave on a strong cold front, which probably bodes well for the next event, which has real potential.

The other thread will be hopping again by later today, lol.

I know you’re being a little tongue in cheek but I don’t see much potential in that. Looks like a weak/late developing Miller B to me. Not gonna work. I thought this one was a good way to maybe get simple snow. But as usual, nothing is simple this year. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z says congrats Eastern shore and beach areas. Trend continues pushing S and fropa look. What else would we expect in April right?

[Ralph Wiggum]

ICON says I'll one-up ya GFS:

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

This 6z GFS Deff looks like a trend toward the euro 

The Ukie started the shift south at 12z yesterday

[Ralph Wiggum]

I told [mention=9]stormtracker[/mention] it would come back south 

Not sure if it went South or just did a 180 from a wave along a baro zone to a mere uneventful fropa. Totally different look that began at 18z yesterday and continues to gain support.

[Scraff]

Good morning everyone. The south shift means the modeled cold gets in here faster and stronger, hence pushing things that way. We also know it’s like reverse of CAD (hard to scour out). Meaning, the modeled  cold won’t be nearly as fast and strong, so the shift back north a bit later today seems reasonable to me. No way I’m sweating possible April snow. We’ll all be sweating in the heat humidity soon enough anyway.  

Does any of that thought process make sense to anyone? That was before coffee. Once I have a cup, all actual clear thinking goes out the window.  

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

20 minutes ago, mappy said:

I told [mention=9]stormtracker[/mention] it would come back south 

Not sure if it went South or just did a 180 from a wave along a baro zone to a mere uneventful fropa. Totally different look that began at 18z yesterday and continues to gain support.

It’s still a wave there...it’s just obviously getting squashed far south. Watch subsequent runs for St Louis today. In my opinion if they get snow, we will. If they don’t, we won’t 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I know you’re being a little tongue in cheek but I don’t see much potential in that. Looks like a weak/late developing Miller B to me. Not gonna work. I thought this one was a good way to maybe get simple snow. But as usual, nothing is simple this year. 

I am for the most part. I mean, there is some potential there, but the way these types of events tend to evolve is the wrong way for our region. 

I need to be more serious with my posts- they are lacking this morning lol. My low interest in snow at this point is showing I guess. I really thought this event would work out for areas NW of the fall line, but I am not feeling it with the recent model trends. It looks like it is evolving into a weak wave that will just get shoved south by an unseasonably strong cold front.

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

True but if they keep going south today, we’re gonna need more than just a touch north 

There is that. Not going to sweat the 06Z GFS nor the ICON but if we do see a further shifting south on the 12z Euro and GFS suite it may put us beyond the point of recovery with a later northward shift, especially Baltimore and north.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It’s still a wave there...it’s just obviously getting squashed far south. Watch subsequent runs for St Louis today. In my opinion if they get snow, we will. If they don’t, we won’t 

Agreed with this for the most part. A sheared out squashed weak wave embedded in a fast flow isnt going to cut it. Lets hope this is an overcorrection as energy rolled onshore and we tick back towards something more favorable later today. Still time.

[Rtd208]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

It’s still a wave there...it’s just obviously getting squashed far south. Watch subsequent runs for St Louis today. In my opinion if they get snow, we will. If they don’t, we won’t 

Agreed with this for the most part. A sheared out squashed weak wave embedded in a fast flow isnt going to cut it. Lets hope this is an overcorrection as energy rolled onshore and we tick back towards something more favorable later today. Still time.

This is my overall thinking.