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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes the RGEM well outside of its useful range(if it has one) looks pretty good!

I know the rgem sucks at range. But if your gonna use the nam at 72 hours to freak out then I can use the rgem at 54 hours to not freak out. Lol

But seriously I doubt the nam progression.  It's totally on its own at 48 hours. Even the op euro which was a northern outlier among the EPS looked nothing like that. It ends up north but not the same way and not neatly to that extent. My rgem comment was just to confirm nothing else so far is in the nam camp. 

Again I don't doubt a north trend in the end as a threat but not for the reason the nam is doing it and not to that extent. 

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Is GFS consistent with QPF amounts compared to 12Z Euro, but more south? I realize Euro lost an inch of QPF in one run. Don't understand why everyone said game over after latest Euro run. I am no expert but GFS has seemed much more consistent and less jumpy than Euro with this one. Does not mean it is right, but...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Honestly, I kinda agree 

Really?  Why?  When do things ever trend south close to game time?  If the GFS was north we would say game over regardless of the NAM.  The GFS being slightly south of 12z was a last minute miracle.  I thought for sure it would be north

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2 minutes ago, SlamSlam said:

Is GFS consistent with QPF amounts compared to 12Z Euro, but more south? I realize Euro lost an inch of QPF in one run. Don't understand why everyone said game over after latest Euro run. I am no expert but GFS has seemed much more consistent and less jumpy than Euro with this one. Does not mean it is right, but...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk
 

GFS has 0.9-1" of precip for DC, Euro has 0.7-0.8" of precip, but the Euro wastes a lot of precip changing to snow

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know the rgem sucks at range. But if your gonna use the nam at 72 hours to freak out then I can use the rgem at 54 hours to not freak out. Lol

But seriously I doubt the nam progression.  It's totally on its own at 48 hours. Even the op euro which was a northern outlier among the EPS looked nothing like that. It ends up north but not the same way and not neatly to that extent. My rgem comment was just to confirm nothing else so far is in the nam camp. 

Again I don't doubt a north trend in the end as a threat but not for the reason the nam is doing it and not to that extent. 

I never freak out over any model. The NAM solution sucked, and I said so. It might be completely wrong, but if it had looked great, you know damn well there would have been people here all giddy over it..a lot of the same ones that rag on it when it shows a "bad" outcome. It is a forecasting tool with it's uses just like any other. Just read Mount Holly's AFD and the NAM is mentioned right there with the GFS in the discussion about possible outcomes. They don't throw it out because its the NAM at 60 or 72 hours lol.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I never freak out over any model. The NAM solution sucked, and I said so. It might be completely wrong, but if it had looked great, you know damn well there would have been people here all giddy over it..a lot of the same ones that rag on it when it shows a "bad" outcome. It is a forecasting tool with it's uses just like any other. Just read Mount Holly's AFD and the NAM is mentioned right there with the GFS in the discussion about possible outcomes. They don't throw it out because its the NAM at 60 or 72 hours lol.

I know you don't freak out. I was just ribbing ya. But I will agree to disagree on the nam at range. I don't get excited at all when it is all alone and shows a good solution past 48. It's done that a few times the last couple years and I'm still waiting for my snow.  Maybe it's on to something. It has scored some coups at range before. But way more often it's just off on a tangent. So I don't worry about it or take it seriously until it's inside it's more stable range. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:


I know it’s fabulous


.

I think it’s doable. Maybe not downtown. But Catonsville Towson parkville white marsh etc could be the sweet spot for this one. Far enough north for solid CAD, but far enough south to be smack in the middle of the heaviest qpf. I’d be pretty pumped being any Baltimore county resident right about now with the current look of this storm at 500

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know you don't freak out. I was just ribbing ya. But I will agree to disagree on the nam at range. I don't get excited at all when it is all alone and shows a good solution past 48. It's done that a few times the last couple years and I'm still waiting for my snow.  Maybe it's on to something. It has scored some coups at range before. But way more often it's just off on a tangent. So I don't worry about it or take it seriously until it's inside it's more stable range. 

I know, and I agree for the most part. But the modeled ground truth outcome has been more snow further north, outside of the one run where it had the 2 waves and 2 different snow maxes. It certainly can be wonky at range. It was more the Euro trends I was concerned with. The NAM solution gets there a different way- lags the cold and runs the wave out quicker, and ends up with the best  snow further north.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

It’s gonna snow and that’s just something we’re gonna have to deal with.

I don’t think we can.  We are in uncharted waters. And we are jaded by the last few months. We are prepping for the fail.  

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1 hour ago, jayyy said:

I think it’s doable. Maybe not downtown. But Catonsville Towson parkville white marsh etc could be the sweet spot for this one. Far enough north for solid CAD, but far enough south to be smack in the middle of the heaviest qpf. I’d be pretty pumped being any Baltimore county resident right about now with the current look of this storm at 500

Well, being a Baltimore County resident, along the mason Dixon, with 700 feet elevation...I think I may be ok 

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

GFS has 0.9-1" of precip for DC, Euro has 0.7-0.8" of precip, but the Euro wastes a lot of precip changing to snow

The GFS has a known bias of transitioning too quickly from rain to snow.  The Euro should be given a greater weight in these situations.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The GFS has a known bias of transitioning too quickly from rain to snow.  The Euro should be given a greater weight in these situations.

Never heard of that bias before, but it also could be in this case due to the GFS being farther south than the Euro

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont get all of the fretting in this thread. All of the models look good to me. :)

Most of the fretting is coming from the southern half.  But you knew that.  Winchester looks fine.  But you knew that too.  

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