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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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I'll harp on this again.  The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks.  If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg.  If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot.  A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression.  Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I'll harp on this again.  The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks.  If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg.  If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot.  A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression.  Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own.  

Yeah, was gonna mention it was stronger. Hopefully it's not just happy hour being happy hour though

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'll harp on this again.  The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks.  If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg.  If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot.  A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression.  Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own.  

Too bad it's not a high instead.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

By 0z tomorrow the NAM will be worth more consideration.

Fixed

I think by 12z tomorrow actually it's into range where I would give it some weight and bother to start to analyze it. It's better then it was pre upgrade. But outside 48 hours it's still super jumpy with weird tangents.  

Used to be that way even at 24-48 hours. Now not so much. It can still be wrong but typically when it is way off inside 48 the other guidance is too. And the few times it was way off on its own in the 24-48 range the last year or so it was either totally or partially right.  It's better but not until 48 hours imo. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'll harp on this again.  The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks.  If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg.  If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot.  A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression.  Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own.  

You pointed that out earlier and I agree. It's obvious run to run the NS system to our northeast in front of this is determining the boundary. I do think the adjustments we see the last 24-36 hours (duh given the antecedent boundary location will be determined by then) will be driven by changes in the amplitude of the wave and it possibly resisting the push of the boundary if it can produce some ridging in front. But right now the run to run adjustments are 90% driven by that feature over New England. 

Ideally we would want both stronger. Get the boundary south of us then have a juiced up system blast into us and push the boundary bank just a bit with a massive thump snow. That was kind of what those big op euro runs showed and what some of the still crazy EPS and GEFS members do. 

 

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