April 7-8 snow event

[87storms]

we don't want more of a north trend or else i feel like we'd be wasting some heavier precip.  i'm good with the current look.  time to lock it in.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

its a little north initially but it’s still a great run. 78 is money 

Money for flurries?

I meant the 6 hr window from 72-78

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Kuchera

 

Have not seen accumulating April Snow in frederick since I moved here 9 years ago.   But meh, I'll take the Euro.

[osfan24]

It's a good hit for sure but the north trend is undeniable and there is pretty much no breathing room now per the GFS.

[yoda]

Just now, osfan24 said:

It's a good hit for sure but the north trend is undeniable and there is pretty much no breathing room now per the GFS.

if you are south of EZF

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Euro started as a NC crush job so that chance of a north is real.  How far it can go is the question.  We will find out soon enough.  Keeping expectations low until Saturday morning.  

Let's use recent history as a guide. In the previous 3 boundary waves like this (this week, this February, and last February) the system around day 5-7 looked way south and weak (relative to its final outcome). Then all 3 around day 4-5 settled on a solution that was close to the final outcome but in all 3 cases it did bleed north the final 48 hours to an extent. 

Last February looked like the axis of best snow was just nw of 95 for a time day 3-4. Then ended up across central PA. 

This February the axis looked across MD then ended up across central PA. Yes that southern max hit D.C.  

This week it settled around the mason Dixon line then ended up central PA. 

So expecting this not to adjust north is foolish. But the question is how much. This is further south right now then those were 72 hours out.  And this has more legit cold pressing than any of those waves did. That would argue against as much north adjustment. But this is also more amplified which could push the boundary north and offset that. 

Im not smart enough to say how those moving parts play off each other exactly but my guess is the north adjustment is less then those other 3 but how much less I dunno. We also have more wiggle room this time. Not a ton but we had none with 2/3 of the previous examples and the one that did have some wiggle room we did hold on to the southern edge of the snowfall. 

So putting that all together yes I'm worried about the north trend but I don't think it's a done deal we get screwed. If this adjusts a little less then the last wave D.C. North would still be ok. But I don't want to see any north move today or tonight. Get this to tomorrow looking like it does now and we have a shot to survive the last minute north bleed we know will happen. The guidance really tends to overestimate the cold press and underestimate the waa ahead of the wave either pushing the boundary back north or resisting the southward press of it. If we enter the final 36 hours hanging on by a thread it's probably not going to end well once that adjustment takes place. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

eh, there's still plenty of cushion on this sounding...look at the lower and mids...WUT?!?!

Damn.  Yeah, it's better than I initially thought

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

if you are south of EZF

If you are counting on 3 inches to actually accumulate during the day in April, I've got some bad news for you. You either get thumped by the good stuff with this or you are getting nothing.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Let's use recent history as a guide. In the previous 3 boundary waves like this (this week, this February, and last February) the system around day 5-7 looked way south and weak (relative to its final outcome). Then all 3 around day 4-5 settled on a solution that was close to the final outcome but in all 3 cases it did bleed north the final 48 hours to an extent. 

Last February looked like the axis of best snow was just nw of 95 for a time day 3-4. Then ended up across central PA. 

This February the axis looked across MD then ended up across central PA. Yes that southern max hit D.C.  

This week it settled around the mason Dixon line then ended up central PA. 

So expecting this not to adjust north is foolish. But the question is how much. This is further south right now then those were 72 hours out.  And this has more legit cold pressing than any of those waves did. That would argue against as much north adjustment. But this is also more amplified which could push the boundary north and offset that. 

Im not smart enough to say how those moving parts play off each other exactly but you guess is the north adjustment is less then those other 3 but how much less I dunno. We also have more wiggle room this time. Not a ton but we had none with 2/3 of the previous examples and the one that did have some wiggle room we did hold on to the southern edge of the snowfall. 

So putting that all together yes I'm worried about the north trend but I don't think it's a done deal we get screwed. If this adjusts a little less then the last wave D.C. North would still be ok. But I don't want to see any north move today or tonight. Get this to tomorrow looking like it does now and we have a shot to survive the last minute north bleed we know will happen. The guidance really tends to overestimate the cold press and underestimate the waa ahead of the wave either pushing the boundary back north or resisting the southward press of it. If we enter the final 36 hours hanging on by a thread it's probably not going to end well once that adjustment takes place. 

This post is pretty much outstanding. Whomever stays all snow and walks right on the line is going to get quite a pasting. Hot and heavy would be the technical term. My guess is the standard Clarksburg-Towson line and nw of there is in the money zone. I might do ok too. Heck I might do great or get totally fooked but your post sums it up perfectly. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

If you are counting on 3 inches to actually accumulate during the day in April, I've got some bad news for you. You either get thumped by the good stuff with this or you are getting nothing.

If you read what Bob said in his post re the sounding, I have some good news for you that we are fine right now

[WxUSAF]

I don't think it's the storm itself that's getting "amped" and pushing north, it's the Friday storm moving through the eastern Great Lakes that places the boundary.  Look at how it's trended weaker, which has allowed the boundary to be close to us and get us snow.  

 

 

[H2O]

Every storm this year has adjusted north over time.  this won't be any different.  I'll enjoy my 2" snow that will melt fast.  But to say that EZF north to DC shouldn't worry is loltastic.

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This post is pretty much outstanding. Whomever stays all snow and walks right on the line is going to get quite a pasting. Hot and heavy would be the technical term. My guess is the standard Clarksburg-Towson line and nw of there is in the money zone. I might do ok too. Heck I might do great or get totally fooked but your post sums it up perfectly. 

Get ready for the debs.  They are starting to peek their heads out

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

Every storm this year has adjusted north over time.  this won't be any different.  I'll enjoy my 2" snow that will melt fast.  But to say that EZF north to DC shouldn't worry is loltastic.

EZF north to DC shouldn't worry.  

[Wonderdog]

Don't you have to think the north trend will continue? How many gfs runs in a row have trended north with this system now? I mean is the depiction of the cold press legit? And after all, it is April.

[Fozz]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

if you are south of EZF

Light snow totals on snow maps in April will be snowTV in reality. There isn't much more room in DC for a north shift.

[H2O]

Just now, stormtracker said:

EZF north to DC shouldn't worry.  

you're old

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Get ready for the debs.  They are starting to peek their heads out

Yup... they are already out on this page.  I mean seriously, we are talking about snow in April and thats all they can say

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

Light snow totals on snow maps in April will be snowTV in reality. There isn't much more room in DC for a north shift.

snowtv is all i want

[Cobalt]

Just now, yoda said:

Yup... they are already out on this page.  I mean seriously, we are talking about snow in April and thats all they can say

DCA hasn't gotten an inch of snow since 1924.. If DCA manages to get an inch of snow (basically a 100 year occurrence), and I'm assuming that means people near DC (including me) get 1-3" of slop. Even then there would still be people complaining. I mean, how many times can you track a setup from medium to short range in APRIL?

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yup... they are already out on this page.  I mean seriously, we are talking about snow in April and thats all they can say

So because there is a potential snow event in April, we should just ignore facts? Everyone is excited at the prospect of an April snow. It's crazy. That doesn't mean a north trend shouldn't be a concern right now.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

So because there is a potential snow event in April, we should just ignore facts? Everyone is excited at the prospect of an April snow. It's crazy. That doesn't mean a north trend shouldn't be a concern right now.

Personally, I'm worried about meteors.  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

So because there is a potential snow event in April, we should just ignore facts? Everyone is excited at the prospect of an April snow. It's crazy. That doesn't mean a north trend shouldn't be a concern right now.

So we should just ignore the DCA sounding that was posted?  It was a good sounding and showed we have a good amount of room

[WxUSAF]

0z GGEM sucked and 12z GGEM does as well. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

So we should just ignore the DCA sounding that was posted?  It was a good sounding and showed we have a good amount of room

No... but if it trends north in the next 2 runs... then yes

[87storms]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

So we should just ignore the DCA sounding that was posted?  It was a good sounding and showed we have a good amount of room

as-is...great sounding...but we need that timing of heavier precip and cold air to be just right.  i'm more interested in seeing the 12z euro.  if it shifts north, then i think we need to start paying attention to that.  my guess is a rain to mix to snow scenario...which would be cool with me as long as there's still heavier precip left by the time the cold air marches in.  

[jayyy]

Are you guys kidding me with the “it won’t snow 3” in April” crap. I just watched it snow 7” in NY on Monday morning at my parents house. sun angle is such a crap myth. If it’s cold enough and precipitation rates are moderate and up, it will accumulate. Please learn some meteorology before bashing others. It can absolutely stick and accumulate in April. I’ve witnessed it hundreds of times in my life. 

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

No... but if it trends north in the next 2 runs... then yes

I  think that's basically what yoda is saying.

[osfan24]

Just now, yoda said:

So we should just ignore the DCA sounding that was posted?  It was a good sounding and showed we have a good amount of room

Not saying ignore it. It is a good sounding, but I'm not concerned about our soundings. I'm concerned about the soundings just south of us. It's not a matter of where we sit. It's a matter of how close we are to having p-type issues. Shift the storm another 50 miles and you are asking for big trouble.

[Jandurin]

Just now, jayyy said:

It can absolutely stick and accumulate in April. I’ve witnessed it hundreds of times in my life. 

Where the heck did you see hundreds of snowstorms that stuck in APRIL

how old are you