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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs for Mon...has snow on snow 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

Dang. I'l be just finishing up shoveling from the Saturday HECS...lol.

In all seriousness though, man the Euro was crazy. I'm not sure what happened to the Euro but it isn't what it used to be after the upgrade a few years ago. For the past Monday event it gave me 4" several runs in a row leading up to the event and all I got was some mangled flakes at the tail end. Even for  the March storm it really  over did the snow in a lot of area's.  Don't get me wrong a lot of the other models were wrong also but before the upgrade inside 48 hours it was deadly. 

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On another note, the NWS updated their winter storm threat graphic to “slight” but their overnight discussion is super vague and basically just says rain/snow mix with all snow confined to the far northwest. I get being cautious but would have been nice to read a little more technical detail there...

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some of the models are hinting at a frontal passage type setup with a transition to rain/snow, so i guess that's something to look out for.  i'm assuming the front slides through and then a low rides along it after a lull, but some models like the cmc make it look like a transition ala jan '11.

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Dang. I'l be just finishing up shoveling from the Saturday HECS...lol.

In all seriousness though, man the Euro was crazy. I'm not sure what happened to the Euro but it isn't what it used to be after the upgrade a few years ago. For the past Monday event it gave me 4" several runs in a row leading up to the event and all I got was some mangled flakes at the tail end. Even for  the March storm it really  over did the snow in a lot of area's.  Don't get me wrong a lot of the other models were wrong also but before the upgrade inside 48 hours it was deadly. 

I think the Euro was hacked by the CRAS. 

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Just now, mfastx said:

Mine too.  I'm not buying it just yet though, there's definitely a little too much of a north trend going on. 

Thankfully, we've held fairly steady the last few cycles. Definitely agree with others that a last second north trend seems inevitable. Something else thats been nice to see is a good swath of jackpots. We have a fair amount of room to work with on both the EURO and GFS, and their ensemble means. Hope that continues. 

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There is a serious high pressure pressing into the region Saturday morning.  It could be enough to keep the storm from trending much farther north.  I think 3-6 inches on grassy surfaces is a reasonable call for now.  Obviously elevation will help the favored locations.  But its hard to ignore the guidance up to this point.  If the guidance changes then so be it.  Its weather.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Makes sense the SREF is so far north because the NAM has been pretty far north.

Is it a signal or are they out to lunch.  12z GFS and 12z Euro are important runs.  If they move toward the NAM it could be the beginning of the end.  I think they will hold serve.  I will wait until tomorrow before overanalyzing the NAM and SREF.

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6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Is it a signal or are they out to lunch.  12z GFS and 12z Euro are important runs.  If they move toward the NAM it could be the beginning of the end.  I think they will hold serve.  I will wait until tomorrow before overanalyzing the NAM and SREF.

SREF's are awful and never should be used...lol half the members are always so overamped making them useless for snow forecasting.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Interesting. Nam develops a trailing low to the south and brings that up after the first runs to our north. 

I personally don't find it interesting at all. lol. Once the real guidance comes out we can return to our regularly scheduled program. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I personally don't find it interesting at all. lol. Once the real guidance comes out we can return to our regularly scheduled program. 

lol. Yeah, does kind of screw those around DC, south and east, with this evolution.

It's the NAM at range so i'll leave it at that. 

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The nam is splitting the energy with a front runner wave which is why the front isn't pressing as fast as other guidance. Then it clips our area with wave 2 anyways.  But it's on it's own with that progression so unless the globals move that way I'm not wasting time analyzing the high res regionals until their inside 48 hours. 

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