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April 7-8 snow event


PrinceFrederickWx

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My first storm thread in all my years on this forum!

As some of you know, I've been super bullish on this system for awhile now. I think we can do this- if we're gonna get a region-wide event in April, this has gotta be the way.

And if I get my second accumulating April event in just three years, it will be mindblowing.

 

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7 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

NAM looks a bit warm no?

Seems a little more amped than the globals...not surprising. But the key to this whole thing is the timing of the arctic front. If it’s delayed then you get a more amped and PA snow solution. Too quick then most of the snow is in VA. Need the tweener which as of now looks most likely!

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I can't believe this is even a possibility. Never seen anything like it in all my years of tracking weather. I thought 3/25/2013 was super late back when it happened. This would blow it out of the water in terms of how anomalous and unusual it is.

But I'm not a fan of the timing, unless it goes all e12 or e20 uber HECS on us.

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12 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I can't believe this is even a possibility. Never seen anything like it in all my years of tracking weather. I thought 3/25/2013 was super late back when it happened. This would blow it out of the water in terms of how anomalous and unusual it is.

But I'm not a fan of the timing, unless it goes all e12 or e20 uber HECS on us.

True but if some of the modeled upper air patterns are correct who knows. Not a lot of precedents for this. -6-8 850s with precip fallling is damn impressive for this time of year 

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27 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I can't believe this is even a possibility. Never seen anything like it in all my years of tracking weather. I thought 3/25/2013 was super late back when it happened. This would blow it out of the water in terms of how anomalous and unusual it is.

But I'm not a fan of the timing, unless it goes all e12 or e20 uber HECS on us.

It will have the dynamics, and it IS going to go all e12 and e20 uber HECS on your back yard. Besides, you have the climo. Enjoy tracking it, then kick back and enjoy immense amounts of snow shellacking.

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3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

temps are a little iffy going into it, but it's a snow sounding once it gets going.

Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol

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i think we'd want the system to slow down and not speed up, otherwise there could be some temp issues at the start.  it does show surface temps around 60 friday, but dropping to freezing (or even below) saturday.
That almost never works out.
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Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol
60 to 32 always goes as planned.
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Seriously dudes. 8am with surface and wet bulb sub freezing and good omegas. This would be legit mid winter type of snow coming down. Sounding looks amazing until you look at the date and then think the gfs was hacked. This literally never happens like ever and it's mid range. I'm trying hard to find flaws... even surface wind is out of the north...lol

 

Dww6GWU.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol

lol yea.  i'd be concerned about a slower infiltration of cold air after a mild day as opposed to jan/feb, but math is math, so if that's what the models are showing maybe we just need to hope that vort is legit.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol

60 to 32 always goes as planned.

If this was hr180 I wouldn't give it a second thought. But this is the gfs throwing down these soundings. And it's not like the euro is much different overall. There is potential for an historic April event of the last what? 50 years?

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Seriously dudes. 8am with surface and wet bulb sub freezing and good omegas. This would be legit mid winter type of snow coming down. Sounding looks amazing until you look at the date and then think the gfs was hacked. This literally never happens like ever and it's mid range. I'm trying hard to find flaws... even surface wind is out of the north...lol
 
Dww6GWU.jpg&key=a4633e5b6a543dd46e9683a9b39401ef7a5ab5525ae6ed68a2f263038b02486b
7am to noon is accumulating window
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