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Possible Snow Event Saturday April 7th


SnowLover22

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1 hour ago, wkd said:

I think we have a good chance to see some snow this weekend but am actually more interested in the following event. That one looks like it has a lot more potential when looking at the H5 evolution.

Followup event is a high risk high reward type scenario where we are going to need ALOT of things to come together properly to achieve a good hit imo. I'll roll the dice with the wave this weekend with the better % at seeing accum snow rather than banking on a rare mid April thread-the-needle MECS/HECS next week personally. Hey, at least it is April and we are still tracking LEGIT THREATS! :-D Gotta love that in and of itself!

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Followup event is a high risk high reward type scenario where we are going to need ALOT of things to come together properly to achieve a good hit imo. I'll roll the dice with the wave this weekend with the better % at seeing accum snow rather than banking on a rare mid April thread-the-needle MECS/HECS next week personally. Hey, at least it is April and we are still tracking LEGIT THREATS! :-D Gotta love that in and of itself!

I spent more time tracking stuff in December than I have in some entire seasons. This winter has been ridiculous as far as trackig goes.

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Absolutely love the fact the NAVGEM is the farthest N model past several runs and most amped up model. That red flag hasnt failed us the entire winter tho many still think its a fluke. Euro ticked a hair N again, nice hit REALLY nice hit for many areas that missed last system. 90 + hours to go. Next 36 hours of modeling should start to get this place jumping imo. Plenty of N members on the GEFS as well. All good signs imo.

 

 

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This is obviously coming north. The warmth in the south this time of year is underplayed right now by the models and will catch up closer to Saturday. This will bring higher heights up the EC. Also, this isn't entirely a SWFE, but it has characteristics of one and all SWFE this season came north.

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Man, I can't keep up with these threats :lol: Busiest time of the year for me at work(income tax return season) so my spare time for tracking has been close to nil. From what I've seen this morning, this looks pretty good and has the chance to get much better. I think precip will tick up as we get closer. I think accumulating snow looks at least likely...i'm never confident with april events though. We only got an inch the last event that was calling for 3-4 and most april events are like that. An abundance of precip and cold enough air is hard to screw up though...imo we are exactly where we want to be at the moment...this one I think will tick N up to the event and southern areas will have precip issues by the time all is said and done.

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HM just tweeted and confirms my thoughts (fears?). Says a N trend is almost a certainty given the changes he is seeing irt strength and timing. Would like to see that bullseye stay South of us thru the rest of the day. Not sure being in the bullseye is what we want until 0z friday earliest. We both could be wrong tho. Like I said, the fact we are tracking still is ridiculous and the GFS at 6z keeps on pumping out tracking chances.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

How so? Looks like 6+. In my area in quakertown 

Yeah I don't think screwed was the right word..

 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

 

lop a few inches off for ratio's but still a fairly decent hit for a lot of SE PA. For extreme SE PA they get a bit screwed on this run but holy crap is it close...

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32 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah I don't think screwed was the right word..

 

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

 

lop a few inches off for ratio's but still a fairly decent hit for a lot of SE PA. For extreme SE PA they get a bit screwed on this run but holy crap is it close...

the Five counties would NOT see accums anywhere near that with 6 hours of moderate rain followed by six hours of moderate snow.  That clown map is just that....a clown map.

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the only negative about the GFS is the timing...pretty much all falls during the day...rates can overcome that as we have seen but it will definitely hurt totals as opposed to it falling mostly in the evening/overnight. but a slower system may be more apt to be shunted south due to the HP moving in. that high is our saving grace and why this shouldn't come too far north.

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the only way this comes far enough north to screw SE PA is if the system speeds up fairly significantly. otherwise, that high is going to limit how far north this can come. i mean look at the icon, it is much later with the storm and is squashed to the south. timing is key to how far north this comes. with that high moving in, it simply cannot trend much further north without the system speeding up or the high slowing down in its press. 

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13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

the only negative about the GFS is the timing...pretty much all falls during the day...rates can overcome that as we have seen but it will definitely hurt totals as opposed to it falling mostly in the evening/overnight. but a slower system may be more apt to be shunted south due to the HP moving in. that high is our saving grace and why this shouldn't come too far north.

Yean nah let's snow from 8-6pm, I never recovered getting up at 6 to see two hours of good snow on three hours of sleep. April snow melts no matter what.

Btw somehow one last sliver of snow remains on my ice cap lawn

 

 

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

the only negative about the GFS is the timing...pretty much all falls during the day...rates can overcome that as we have seen but it will definitely hurt totals as opposed to it falling mostly in the evening/overnight. but a slower system may be more apt to be shunted south due to the HP moving in. that high is our saving grace and why this shouldn't come too far north.

actually the heaviest snow falls from overnigfht hours (after say 3am) till 7am on the GFS

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