vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: So even with just .25-.5” of ice with winds gusting to and over 40mph your in the category 4 index which is pretty significant. Over 1/2” with those kinds of winds and your in the catastrophic category... Suppose to be 20-25mph sustained. That's pretty strong...NE direction as well which is a tough one for trees around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, vortmax said: Suppose to be 20-25mph sustained. That's pretty strong...NE direction as well which is a tough one for trees around here. The fact that the bulk of this will be late Saturday and into Sunday will really minimize diurnal impacts so I think with temps between 29-31 there’ll be no problem accumulating the ice, especially on trees and power lines. The ground may be a tad warm to accumulate efficiently but even if it doesn’t I thinks there’s gonna be serious tree/power issues that is going to far exceed the expectations of many who think that “oh its mid April, it’s too warm for ice, we’re just gonna get some cold rain”. At least that’s what people at work are saying when I bring up the idea of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I think one thing working against an ice event is the temp profiles leading up the event. We have temps above freezing for several days, followed by a short ~12 hour dip below freezing. This means that surfaces will have to cool down before any significant glazing occurs. During mid winter ice events, antecedent conditions are often well below freezing and surfaces are ripe for accretion as soon as precip begins to fall. Marginal boundary layer temps, warm surfaces, and latent heat release may slow the process this upcoming storm. That said, an ice storm this late in the season is nearly unprecedented, at least in my lifetime. I have little experience to go on. I will say that I completely wrote off the 2003 storm saying that ice accretion in April is unlikely and probably inefficient. We then got hit pretty damn hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: I think one thing working against an ice event is the temp profiles leading up the event. We have temps above freezing for several days, followed by a short ~12 hour dip below freezing. This means that surfaces will have to cool down before any significant glazing occurs. During mid winter ice events, antecedent conditions are often well below freezing and surfaces are ripe for accretion as soon as precip begins to fall. Marginal boundary layer temps, warm surfaces, and latent heat release may slow the process this upcoming storm. That said, an ice storm this late in the season is nearly unprecedented, at least in my lifetime. I have little experience to go on. I will say that I completely wrote off the 2003 storm saying that ice accretion in April is unlikely and probably inefficient. We then got hit pretty damn hard. Do you have an analog to compare the setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I think one thing working against an ice event is the temp profiles leading up the event. We have temps above freezing for several days, followed by a short ~12 hour dip below freezing. This means that surfaces will have to cool down before any significant glazing occurs. During mid winter ice events, antecedent conditions are often well below freezing and surfaces are ripe for accretion as soon as precip begins to fall. Marginal boundary layer temps, warm surfaces, and latent heat release may slow the process this upcoming storm. That said, an ice storm this late in the season is nearly unprecedented, at least in my lifetime. I have little experience to go on. I will say that I completely wrote off the 2003 storm saying that ice accretion in April is unlikely and probably inefficient. We then got hit pretty damn hard. I agree with you 100% but how much latent heat can trees and power lines hold? I really think elevated surfaces will cool quick enough to allow for efficient accumulation, roads and other non elevated surfaces are definitely a different story but I don’t think that will be the main issue with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Do you have an analog to compare the setup? Not that I know of, I can't ever remember an ice event this late. Throw in the fact that we cool down via a backdoor front ahead of a strong spring storm and there are just too many variables. Start well above freezing, quickly drop to freezing or just below, and then surge right back above freezing less than 24 hours later. If it happens it will be a very quick hitter. Some of the worst ice events are usually long duration and they often begin cold. This is a strange one for sure. I guess we could check the CIPS analog page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: I agree with you 100% but how much latent heat can trees and power lines hold? I really think elevated surfaces will cool quick enough to allow for efficient accumulation, roads and other non elevated surfaces are definitely a different story but I don’t think that will be the main issue with this event. I meant latent heat release from freezing water which slightly slows the freezing rain process. If boundary temps are super marginal this heat release prevent efficient accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1991 was in 60s before storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: 1991 was in 60s before stoem I think there were thunderstorms the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, LivingstonWx said: I think there were thunderstorms the day before. That one was a long-term event with temps dropping throughout. This situation is quite unique...really depends on how cold (and quickly) the air can get. Let's see what 12z brings us...temp-wise. Would be curious to see how cold it gets along the south shore. If we dip into the 20s, then it could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: That one was a long-term event with temps dropping throughout. This situation is quite unique...really depends on how cold (and quickly) the air can get. We literally could have almost nothing or a solid inch of crippling ice. I’m expecting something in the middle but definitely had the potential to go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just a quick question... why WWA's for forecast of 1/4 to 1/2 inch ice possible? Isn't that WSW or soon to be ISW criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I meant latent heat release from freezing water which slightly slows the freezing rain process. If boundary temps are super marginal this heat release prevent efficient accretion. I think more than anything it's important to have low level CAD ongoing if temps are marginal. I think the LHR warming could under-perform in this case, especially early on. LHR is very effective at ending freezing rain with marginal surface temps when CAD ends/flips to WAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 NAM looks to bring in a deep enough layer of cold air to produce more sleet than freezing rain, at least along the Lake plain/Rochester area. Hope that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 13, 2018 Author Share Posted April 13, 2018 I’m going to miss an ice storm, Ugh! Love ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 12z NAM has mostly sleet for areas north of 90. Looks like decent ice storm for Central Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Gfs destroys buffalo to roc .50 to 1.5 freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 If a damaging ice storm does play out Saturday night, the 2-3 inches of rain the following days will not bode well for those of us with flood prone basements. Pretty nasty one two punch.... I'll have my generator on standby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: If a damaging ice storm does play out Saturday night, the 2-3 inches of rain the following days will not bode well for those of us with flood prone basements. Pretty nasty one two punch.... I'll have my generator on standby! Money to my ears. Obviously I don’t ever want to wish any damage upon everyone but if it does happen I’ll be happy to have the overtime! 12z NAM and GFS clobber BUF. Probably .75-1.25” ice verbatim but as WxNoob said there may be some sleet mixing in north of BUF. Really liking my spot about 8 miles south of KBUF for some serious icing, we have some wiggle room both ways I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: So even with just .25-.5” of ice with winds gusting to and over 40mph your in the category 4 index which is pretty significant. Over 1/2” with those kinds of winds and your in the catastrophic category... This is radial ice, that's half of flat ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 KBGM not all that excited but will probably put up Advisory this afternoon for consistency with KBUF if for no other reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This is radial ice, that's half of flat ice. Excuse me for my lack of knowledge. What is the difference between radial and flat ice? I take it your saying the .25-.5” that KBUF is forecasting is flat ice accumulation and that chart is saying radial accumulation so really the .25”-.5” thats forecast would be .125” - .25” on the chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just curious, does anyone know when the last Ice Storm Warning was issued for BUF ot ROC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 GFS snowfall incl. sleet! NAM 3k thru 48hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Just curious, does anyone know when the last Ice Storm Warning was issued for BUF ot ROC? KBUF tends to issue WSW rather than Ice Storm Warnings. I don't know how they come to that decision. I'm pretty sure April 2003 was a WSW. Does some else know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 It was the changed half way through event to a ice storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Hey at least Toronto is finally getting their snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Toronto gets a 4 inches of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, vortmax said: GFS snowfall incl. sleet! NAM 3k thru 48hr: Sleet usually has a liquid equivalent of around 2.5:1 though, so you can cut those totals down 1/4. 3-4 inches of sleet would definitely be messy, but not as bad as 1" plus of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 36 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Excuse me for my lack of knowledge. What is the difference between radial and flat ice? I take it your saying the .25-.5” that KBUF is forecasting is flat ice accumulation and that chart is saying radial accumulation so really the .25”-.5” thats forecast would be .125” - .25” on the chart? Yeah that's right. Forecast for freezing rain accretion is for flat ice. There's a lot of stuff that goes into efficiency of ice accretion, like wind speed (higher results in more efficiency), temperature (26-28F is the most efficient range), and precipitation rates (lower results in more efficiency). Those algorithm charts only show the QPF falling as zr, not how much will actually ice surfaces. A lot of times it's only 60-80 percent. The biggest freezing rain storms are long duration light events that happen over a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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