tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I could see hundreds of thousands without power with this storm in ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: I could see hundreds of thousands without power with this storm in ny Easily. Long term outages as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KAEL.html crazy obs. 70 mph gust in a snow thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KAEL.html crazy obs. 70 mph gust in a snow thunderstorm Are you throwing out the ob that says a gust to 123mph @935, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: Did u acknowledge that this is for radial ice and not for flat ice? (radial ice is roughly half of flat ice). So it's probably in that category 3 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 What' is the diffeence radial and flat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 14, 2018 Author Share Posted April 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Are you throwing out the ob that says a gust to 123mph @935, lol! Yeah haha. 70 seemed within range, but yeah can’t take it accurate when it shows that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: What' is the diffeence radial and flat It's the ice on a branch or a power line. When you like at model progs, you're looking at flat ice, i.e. rain that freezes on a flat surface. Radial ice is the radius of ice on a branch or a power line. 1" flat ice =0.5" radial ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I think it' ice that accms on rounded structures like tree branches and wires. Flat ice in on a flat surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: I think it' ice that accms on rounded structures like tree branches and wires. Flat ice in on a flat surface dude...i just said that. Learn to use the reply function. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Oh so what does nws forecast flat ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: Oh so what does nws forecast flat ice? yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Ok. Makes more sense now. But if you believe other guidance we are in 4 to maybe 5. Like hi res canadian or euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Ok. Makes more sense now. But if you believe other guidance we are in 4 to maybe 5. Like hi res canadian or euro i would say solid Cat 1 maybe low end Cat 2. .1 to .25 with 15-25mph winds. You just arent going to get the ice accumulations the models are spitting out. You need to half them or even divide by 4. A cat 1 still warrants concern with sporadic power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Ok. Makes more sense now. But if you believe other guidance we are in 4 to maybe 5. Like hi res canadian or euro No. The ice doesn't all accrete. A portion of it runs off. You've already been told this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Hard to believe, April 14 midday and the temp has just dropped below freezing here. 31.9/25 Concerned that precip is still falling as freezing rain in Toronto. If the cold air isn't deep enough to produce sleet there, what are the chances it will do so here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: i would say solid Cat 1 maybe low end Cat 2. .1 to .25 with 15-25mph winds. You just arent going to get the ice accumulations the models are spitting out. You need to half them or even divide by 4. A cat 1 still warrants concern with sporadic power outages. You seem pretty confident about this, so are you going to Buffalo? I wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, coh said: You seem pretty confident about this, so are you going to Buffalo? I wouldn't. No, even Cat 1 is too dangerous for me to go. My sump pump has been running once every 15 mins or so the past few days. The wife is taking the truck and leaving me to defend the castle. grumble grumble I should mention that I have a battery backup on the sump pump but it can be a bit dodgy and bit me in the ass once in the past when I needed it most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 So if you get a half inch flat ice that' 1/4 radial with winds past 35 that's a cat 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Your forgetting the wind compounds the seriousness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: So if you get a half inch flat ice that' 1/4 radial with winds past 35 that's a cat 4 I guess, I'm more inclined to think you would need sustained winds of that magnitude which is much different than a gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Yes of course it's sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: Your forgetting the wind compounds the seriousness I'm not forgetting anything, you're hugging model ouputs verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 although I think 25-35 mph is a more accurate range for this event in general. BUF is already in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Yes of course it's sustained. And there you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Worst case we're looking at .25-.5" radial ice accumulation with 25-35mph sustained winds we'd be in category 3 as a worst case scenario. More likely will be in the cat 2 range but we'll see what happens. Still significant and could be without power for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Now Wayne to Oswego in ice storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: No, even Cat 1 is too dangerous for me to go. My sump pump has been running once every 15 mins or so the past few days. The wife is taking the truck and leaving me to defend the castle. grumble grumble I should mention that I have a battery backup on the sump pump but it can be a bit dodgy and bit me in the ass once in the past when I needed it most. Definitely understand! We don't have a lot of water coming in right now, but last year in April we lost power for 3 hours at the peak of sump pump season. I had to have the fire department come over to pump it out. Almost made it into the hot water heater and boiler (fortunately there is enough slope in the basement and those are in a higher section). We have a standby generator now as well as a small portable backup generator just in case, plus a couple of portable submersible pumps in case the sump pump completely fails. But the float on the sump pump sticks occasionally so even with power, there is always a risk. I need to get it replaced this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Cat 3 would be serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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