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Lake Erie did it's dirty work today squashing the hopes and dreams of summer enthusiasts in the city and surrounding areas.  I hit the mid 70's very early in the day, then temp steadily dropped starting around 3PM.  Bottomed out in the low 60's.  Quite fascinating to drive about 5 miles east to Wegmans and see people out in shorts while frolicking in the summer warmth.  Then return home to see people in sweats and hoodies, hunched over as the chill in the air from the icy waters hangs on top of us like a heavy weight, all while winds gust to 50 mph and slap a "real feel" of 51 degrees in your face.  

8 PM obs:

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
NIAGARA FALLS  MOCLDY    76  54  46 SW16      29.92R
BUFFALO        MOCLDY    62  48  60 SW10      29.94S
DUNKIRK        CLOUDY    73  54  51 SW13G18   29.96R
JAMESTOWN      CLOUDY    74  53  48 SW10      30.02R
WELLSVILLE     MOCLDY    77  46  33 W10G21    30.03R
ROCHESTER      LGT RAIN  74  53  48 W18       29.93R
PENN YAN       MOCLDY    77  46  33 W10G21    29.95R
$$
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12 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Lake Erie did it's dirty work today squashing the hopes and dreams of summer enthusiasts in the city and surrounding areas.  I hit the mid 70's very early in the day, then temp steadily dropped starting around 3PM.  Bottomed out in the low 60's.  Quite fascinating to drive about 5 miles east to Wegmans and see people out in shorts while frolicking in the summer warmth.  Then return home to see people in sweats and hoodies, hunched over as the chill in the air from the icy waters hangs on top of us like a heavy weight, all while winds gust to 50 mph and slap a "real feel" of 51 degrees in your face.  

8 PM obs:


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
NIAGARA FALLS  MOCLDY    76  54  46 SW16      29.92R
BUFFALO        MOCLDY    62  48  60 SW10      29.94S
DUNKIRK        CLOUDY    73  54  51 SW13G18   29.96R
JAMESTOWN      CLOUDY    74  53  48 SW10      30.02R
WELLSVILLE     MOCLDY    77  46  33 W10G21    30.03R
ROCHESTER      LGT RAIN  74  53  48 W18       29.93R
PENN YAN       MOCLDY    77  46  33 W10G21    29.95R
$$

I hadnt noticed Buffalo getting shafted until you mentioned it.  ROC was roasting yesterday with a record high of 85.  We only got down to 65 overnight too, mid summer warmth for bit here.  

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1 hour ago, vortmax said:

Might be a wild day. Skies are clearing to allow some surface heating...looks like the DPs are 60+ as well just south of the front.

Squall line is taking shape in Michigan with a large area of clearing ahead.  Eventually blow off from that line will outrun the squall line itself but looks like a solid few hours of heating before that happens.  Would love to see CAPES get up into the 1500 range as all the other ingredients are in place.  

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11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Squall line is taking shape in Michigan with a large area of clearing ahead.  Eventually blow off from that line will outrun the squall line itself but looks like a solid few hours of heating before that happens.  Would love to see CAPES get up into the 1500 range as all the other ingredients are in place.  

Question is how the cold lakes will influence the line.

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36 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Question is how the cold lakes will influence the line.

That’s a good question. Past experience has shown that these very powerful spring storms with strong upper and low level dynamics overwhelm any lake influcences as if they don’t even exist. The summer storms get absolutely devoured by the stable lake air though. 

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mcd0351.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

   Areas affected...Western NY...Northwest PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 041823Z - 042000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds in excess of 50kt will accompany convection
   this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch will be issued.

   DISCUSSION...Plume of steep low-level lapse rates have developed
   along a corridor from OH into southern ON. Scattered convection has
   developed within this plume along/ahead of a surging front that
   currently extends from southern Lake Ontario into northwest OH.
   Intense large-scale forcing for ascent will spread along the
   international border region which will encourage upward evolving
   squall line as it races east. Severe wind gusts in excess of 50kt
   have been common with convection across southeastern lower MI into
   northwestern OH. 18z sounding from BUF exhibits a strengthening wind
   field with 50kt near 900mb. There is increasing confidence that
   50kt+ wind gusts will easily mix to the surface given the steep
   boundary-layer lapse rates. Latest thinking is widespread wind
   damage could accompany squall line as it races east ahead of
   ejecting mid-level speed max. Watch will be issued soon to account
   for this threat.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/04/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 75
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   245 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western and Central New York
     Eastern Ohio
     Western and Central Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia Panhandle
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over Ohio will race eastward across the
   watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of widespread damaging wind
   gusts.  A few reports of significant wind damage are possible.
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10 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Wow, SPC put out a 10% tornado risk for northern Vermont and the northern Adirondacks. That generally goes against the tornado climatology of this region.

Climatologically high-end parameters are in place already, i.e. 50+ knots bulk shear, 200+ 0-1km SRH; LCLs generally below 750m... Not even enough cases to compare to climo in the Adirondacks, but mesoanalysis of the upstream environment confirms. https://twitter.com/stormchaserq/status/992472856226299908?s=21

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2 hours ago, vortmax said:

Question is how the cold lakes will influence the line.

So far the lake does appear to be playing a role in things as convection has fired up along the usual Lake Erie Shadow/lake breeze and also NW or Erie.  Hoping I don't get completely shafted...

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

So far the lake does appear to be playing a role in things as convection has fired up along the usual Lake Erie Shadow/lake breeze and also NW or Erie.  Hoping I don't get completely shafted...

The lake shadow did its job here.  Nothing but a sprinkle as the front pushed through.  

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 76
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM EDT FRI MAY 4 2018

TORNADO WATCH 76 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NYC019-031-033-035-041-043-065-089-091-113-115-050200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0076.180504T1915Z-180505T0200Z/

NY
.    NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLINTON              ESSEX               FRANKLIN
FULTON               HAMILTON            HERKIMER
ONEIDA               SARATOGA            ST. LAWRENCE
WARREN               WASHINGTON
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There was a tornado last week near Penn Yan...

Quote

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
419 PM EDT Tue May 8 2018

... A Tornado Touched Down Briefly near Penn Yan New York ...

Start Location...Penn Yan in Yates County New York
End Location...Penn Yan in Yates County New York
Date... Thursday May 3rd
Estimated Time... 8:19 PM to 8:21 PM
Maximum EF-Scale Rating... EF #1
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed... 100 mph
Maximum Path Width... 100 yards
Path Length... 1.11 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon... 42.7139 N/ -77.1529 W
Ending Lat/Lon... 42.7107 N/ -77.1315 W
* Fatalities... 0
* Injuries... 0

...Summary...

A tornado hit a barn on East Swamp road which collapsed.
The tornado then continued into several fields lifting debris
from the collapsed farm onto the fields. Along the path,
the tornado took down several trees which fell in different
directions.
The tornado continued eastward to Voak road where it blew down a
fence and another tree before lifting.

 

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23 hours ago, Chinook said:

Some 1000 - 2000 J/kg of CAPE and shear values of 50 kt should develop tomorrow in Pennsylvania and southern New York. The SPC currently has an enhanced risk near Albany for stuff like this !!

mkMkv0f.png

Well forecasted...

severe.png

severe1.png

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