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Upstate/Eastern New York


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5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Worst case we're looki at .25-.5" radial ice accumulation with 25-35mph sustained winds we'd be in category 3 as a worst case scenario. More likely will be in the cat 2 range but we'll see what happens. 

That kind of  sounds like "most likely case", with worst case being closer to .75 or even 1". I don't think the latter is very likely but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.

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Just now, coh said:

That kind of  sounds like "most likely case", with worst case being closer to .75 or even 1". I don't think the latter is very likely but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.

That diagram has radial ice, which is half of flat ice, that's what we were discussing. Worst reasonable case scenario is like 1" flat ice, 0.5" radial ice. Chance of this occurring is about 10% chance according to the WPC. 

 

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3 minutes ago, vortmax said:

We have a water pressure backup system. Works great with no power. 

I currently dump my sump into the sewer line which is stupid and illegal (I know). Until I resolve that I don’t want to hook one of these up. They are certainly the best option around here. 

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I know you can't base forecast of radar trends but radar is looking like all the precip is going to be a good deal north of WNY (like Euro or even further north). Based on radar it doesn't seem like precip will be here till about 8pm or so when I remember watching the in house model on channel 4 bring the precip I around 4-5... 

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1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

currently in the GTA area its around 29F-31F with sleet/freezing rain. Winds are already sustained in the Downtown Toronto area around 30mph with gusts to 40mph. Hamilton is 31F with light freezing rain with winds sustained around 40mph with gusts to 54mph. 

Should be an interesting next 24 hours 

Wow, keep us posted! 

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8 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Radar is making almost 0 eastward progress. Toronto is going to get whacked. Not so sure about here anymore... 

Agreed. Maybe I’ll wait until 7 and make a game time decision.  If that first batch misses us totals suddenly drop significantly.

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I think we really have to hope that first wave of precip is overdone by the models because everything else is in place...temps are already near or below freezing, winds are strong. In the BUF weather discussion they addressed the issue of sleet vs freezing rain and they feel the warm layer will be too strong to overcome - hydrometeors will be fully melted and they don't usually refreeze unless the cold layer is really deep (they are more likely to refreeze if only partly melted). I saw one NWS algorithm on line somewhere that suggested our cold layer will be right about at the threshold required for refreezing (based on NAM point soundings near ROC) so a lot of sleet may be out of the question. I do see that stations along the north shore of the lake have changed over, though

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3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

You're probably right.  I know it's stupid to leave, just don't want to over react here.  That said, I was just gassing up the chainsaw and running the generator, charging batteries, etc.  

I think it's all bull****. Yeah a serious glaze in some places but roads will be fine. You can always drive back as it'll he in 40s sunday

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7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I think it's all bull****. Yeah a serious glaze in some places but roads will be fine. You can always drive back as it'll he in 40s sunday

The bad scenario would go like this. I get to buffalo, power goes out here around midnight from a small branch on my street (lots of old rickety trees). I’m drunk and stuck in buffalo until I sober up around 7am or later. By that time my basement could be in trouble.   

I’m 90-10 nothing will happen but damn that 10 percent is scary risk.   And driving is not a concern at all. Roads will be wet but never frozen.  

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18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

The bad scenario would go like this. I get to buffalo, power goes out here around midnight from a small branch on my street (lots of old rickety trees). I’m drunk and stuck in buffalo until I sober up around 7am or later. By that time my basement could be in trouble.   

I’m 90-10 nothing will happen but damn that 10 percent is scary risk.   And driving is not a concern at all. Roads will be wet but never frozen.  

Oh. You didnt mention the #drunj thing. LoL!

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