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Upstate/Eastern New York


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I'm very concerned about one local met in general and thats Todd Santos of WIVB channel 4 buffalo...he seems to be edging temps above what the model outputs are very distinctly showing as if to blow off the information...he did it last night as well...i know one thing for sure is once the NE winds set in they are very hard to move to a southerly direction...I fear and have said numerous times today Saturday night threat is very real and might be crippling.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I'm very concerned about one local met in general and thats Todd Santos of WIVB channel 4 buffalo...he seems to be edging temps above what the model outputs are very distinctly showing as if to blow off the information...he did it last night as well...i know one thing for sure is once the NE winds set in they are very hard to move to a southerly direction...I fear and have said numerous times today Saturday night threat is very real and might be crippling.

These big cold highs tend to win at this time of year. Risky bet.

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Nws starting to catch on..

 

Saturday Night
Freezing rain before 9pm, then rain between 9pm and 1am, then freezing rain after 1am. Low around 32. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. 
Sunday
Freezing rain before 7am, then rain. High near 51. East wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
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Disco

 

 
Freezing rain is unusual in April, but model guidance consistently
shows a nearly ideal set up for a wintry mix for roughly the
northern two-thirds of our cwa. It is tempting to discount model
guidance because of the date, however unusual late (and early)
season events can and do occur. Strong high pressure is forecast to
track from Ontario to Quebec this weekend, which will provide a
steady supply of cold air and sharpen a strong surface front.
Meanwhile, mid-level warm air advection will result in a classic
freezing rain sounding with a layer of +4 to +8 C over top of sub-
freezing air. Just north of this, it will be colder aloft (but
still above freezing) with significant sleet accumulation
possible. 00Z model consensus has trended Northeasterly winds will result in
  significant wave action which may result in lakeshore flooding
 and erosion along the southwestern shores of Lake Ontario.a
bit south/colder with the front and now shows a risk of
significant icing extending well south of Lake Ontario. Both ice
and sleet is a risk in the North Country where surface
temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the weekend.
Based on this, we will issue a winter weather advisory for all
areas expect the Southern Tier. Depending on the position of the
front, this may have to be added. There also is a risk the
North Country may approach warning criteria
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17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Disco

 

 

Freezing rain is unusual in April, but model guidance consistently
shows a nearly ideal set up for a wintry mix for roughly the
northern two-thirds of our cwa. It is tempting to discount model
guidance because of the date, however unusual late (and early)
season events can and do occur. Strong high pressure is forecast to
track from Ontario to Quebec this weekend, which will provide a
steady supply of cold air and sharpen a strong surface front.
Meanwhile, mid-level warm air advection will result in a classic
freezing rain sounding with a layer of +4 to +8 C over top of sub-
freezing air. Just north of this, it will be colder aloft (but
still above freezing) with significant sleet accumulation
possible. 00Z model consensus has trended Northeasterly winds will result in
  significant wave action which may result in lakeshore flooding
 and erosion along the southwestern shores of Lake Ontario.a
bit south/colder with the front and now shows a risk of
significant icing extending well south of Lake Ontario. Both ice
and sleet is a risk in the North Country where surface
temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the weekend.
Based on this, we will issue a winter weather advisory for all
areas expect the Southern Tier. Depending on the position of the
front, this may have to be added. There also is a risk the
North Country may approach warning criteria

I would think if the Southern Tier gets added for a WWA that the north country wouldn’t be upgraded to a warning as that means the cold push is further south which I would think would lead to more IP/ possibly even SN up there. Anyway you slice it things could get pretty dicey around most of upstate Saturday Night. Just a gut feeling this is going to have more impact than advertised. 

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48 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Typical nws downplaying. Buffalo is famous for it.

It seems far more likely that we'll have a cold rain with minimal ice than a significant crippling event.  You have to be very careful when you mention ice storms around here.  The NWS does not want to panic people for a VERY low confidence forecast.  If things really lock in I'm sure they will quickly ramp up the warnings.  

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It seems far more likely that we'll have a cold rain with minimal ice than a significant crippling event.  You have to be very careful when you mention ice storms around here.  The NWS does not want to panic people for a VERY low confidence event.  

LO is the key piece, I think, throwing a wrench in their confidence. Is it warm enough keep the BL from getting too low? Also, when does the majority of the precip fall - day/night?

Does anyone have analogs to the 1991 and April 2003 event?

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