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April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon actually was the best guidance with last nights wave. It was north and stayed north from way out. It never teased us. Not saying that means it's good or use it now. But I've noticed it have some good moments this year. Maybe with more tweaking it can become a decent tool. 

In another run or 2 the GFS will be too far north for comfort again. It has been back and forth- it was south, then went north/too far north then worked its way into a good position for our region, then went way south. It just made a significant bump north at 12z. I am on record as doubting the low stays suppressed south, if in fact there is a storm, which seems pretty likely. Heck look at this morning's event- It was suppressed and weak with rain/snow for southern VA/NC at one time. And I am not singling out the GFS, as other guidance has also been jumpy.

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We are getting close to the 5 day range with this one. Honestly, i can see this one working out in our favor. Plus i want it to come North so it doesn’t interfere with the Masters. If i can get shellacked by snow and watch the Masters this weekend that would be great. I bet we see a couple bullseye runs between now and Thursday when things will come into focus

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh man..yeah..wish we could see temps.   GEFS looks north of the op as well.

The timing is perfect too verbatim. Comes in late Saturday afternoon and exits mid afternoon  Sunday. That would pretty much maximize our accumulation potential for April 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Euro still looks suppressed.  

It is it's a big snow Raleigh to VA beach lol 

it's loading up the next one day 7 though because it's blasting the cold front so far south the boundary is still to our south when the next wave comes at us. 3 waves in right spacing between day 5-8 is going to mess with the guidance but it seems the more suppressed the first threat is the more the next becomes a threat. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is it's a big snow Raleigh to VA beach lol 

it's loading up the next one day 7 though because it's blasting the cold front so far south the boundary is still to our south when the next wave comes at us. 3 waves in right spacing between day 5-8 is going to mess with the guidance but it seems the more suppressed the first threat is the more the next becomes a threat. 

Yeah, that's likely

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18 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I honestly love the 12z euro. It can stay down there for another 24 hrs for all I care. It'll come north....

Yeah let's see how often that happened this season...(what, maybe once or twice out of 10 times? Lol) Suppression has been the jokeer villain all winter (although the fact that such a potential party pooper would even still be a threat in April is surprising to my novice eyes...I mean c'mon...it's APRIL! Shouldn't things come north more easily by now? I guess this is when @psuhoffman comes in and says "not necessarily", right? Lol)

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There are several waves playing around in our threat window day 5-10. Good news is after that this is OVER!!!!  Seriously over. The blocking is breaking down and we look to torch by the 13tg I think.  After that even if it reloads I doubt it will make much difference for us other then a few days in the 50/60s vs 70/80s. 

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