yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: As others have said, it would be a fitting end to get screwed by a major snowstorm sliding south of us IN APRIL. I'm of the opinion that it absolutely could happen. Yes it would be lol... but I don't remember a storm that struck SC/NC that gave them over 4" of snow in April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 That April storm that clobbered Richmond and Philly but only fringed DC and Baltimore was a Boxing Day type hook storm because places west of DC and Baltimore got nothing. So it must of tracked west to east south of us then turned north. Obviously in time to give DC and Baltimore some snow unlike Boxing Day but same general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 The GEFS mean was about 100 miles north of the Op. I'd expect 12z to move North a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 As others have said, it would be a fitting end to get screwed by a major snowstorm sliding south of us IN APRIL. I'm of the opinion that it absolutely could happen.It would be extra fitting if the storm then managed to hook around and hit SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 GFS slowing down the vortex NW Territories a lot this run. I thought yesterdays 12z was too fast, but this is a total ****show since then. Edit: It's a pretty good run, I'm just obsessing with the poor GFS performance on the vortex in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: Yes it would be lol... but I don't remember a storm that struck SC/NC that gave them over 4" of snow in April I recall a storm in the early 2000s where my sister's house in Winston-Salem, NC got 4"+ on Easter, which was in the first week of April that year. It was a pretty big deal for them. Not sure what it did up here for that storm, because I didn't live here at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The GEFS mean was about 100 miles north of the Op. I'd expect 12z to move North a bit. It came north...a bit. H5 looks like it's going to still slide south tho. But moving north is positive ETA: Yeah, slide south of us still, but its a good bit north of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 It has started its shift north. Just like this current system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 lol 12z CMC says what storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: lol 12z CMC says what storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: I meant the Sat-Sun storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 I don't know, I'd say the day 5-6 storm has a better chance of missing us north/rain than south. The Tropical SE ridge is really pronounced right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Ehh I'm not a big fan of the trends. It's close enough not to shut the door. But this isn't the range we want the consensus way south of us. This isn't 15 years ago. Lately where the consensus from day 5/6 is has been pretty close to where things end up. Details change of course but the general idea has been good. Still some moving parts. The system in front has trended stronger which suppressed. Then there is the system on its heels and if that can trend faster maybe that ends up doing something before the cold gets stale. But yesterday this looked better. It's been a step back since then and just because it's 5/6 days away doesn't make that a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jandurin said: That's the next system. That's one to watch too but different storm then the one we were discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ehh I'm not a big fan of the trends. It's close enough not to shut the door. But this isn't the range we want the consensus way south of us. This isn't 15 years ago. Lately where the consensus from day 5/6 is has been pretty close to where things end up. Details change of course but the general idea has been good. Still some moving parts. The system in front has trended stronger which suppressed. Then there is the system on its heels and if that can trend faster maybe that ends up doing something before the cold gets stale. But yesterday this looked better. It's been a step back since then and just because it's 5/6 days away doesn't make that a good thing. Hug the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 The Icon is Iconic not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Just now, Philadelphia Snow said: The Icon is Iconic not a bad look. Move that low another 100 miles north and we have a believable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's the next system. That's one to watch too but different storm then the one we were discussing. I know I know. Just can't believe day 10 is still spitting this crap out to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It came north...a bit. H5 looks like it's going to still slide south tho. But moving north is positive ETA: Yeah, slide south of us still, but its a good bit north of 6z Don't worry the icon is still north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Winter 17-18. Good luck getting cold next Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Will have to wait for the in between hours to see how it got there... but 12z UKMET at 144 SLP looks nice 120 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Move that low another 100 miles north and we have a believable solution. Icon actually was the best guidance with last nights wave. It was north and stayed north from way out. It never teased us. Not saying that means it's good or use it now. But I've noticed it have some good moments this year. Maybe with more tweaking it can become a decent tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ehh I'm not a big fan of the trends. It's close enough not to shut the door. But this isn't the range we want the consensus way south of us. This isn't 15 years ago. Lately where the consensus from day 5/6 is has been pretty close to where things end up. Details change of course but the general idea has been good. Still some moving parts. The system in front has trended stronger which suppressed. Then there is the system on its heels and if that can trend faster maybe that ends up doing something before the cold gets stale. But yesterday this looked better. It's been a step back since then and just because it's 5/6 days away doesn't make that a good thing. What trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Will have to wait for the in between hours to see how it got there... but 12z UKMET at 144 SLP looks nice 120 144 Oh hello there. Come on over and chat. I have an excellent dental plan if your interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Will have to wait for the in between hours to see how it got there... but 12z UKMET at 144 SLP looks nice 120 144 it's funny how the general storm pattern hasn't changed much the whole season. hopefully it doesn't slide too far south. that march event was too complicated for us to really do too well. maybe this setup will be cleaner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: What trend? Good point. It's only 1/2 runs so far. But the gfs cmc and euro all took a step towards a problamatic spacing problem between the waves Day 4.5 and 5.5. I didn't like the new look as much as the old. But it might just be noise and chaos at this range and settle back to a better look. There are a lot of cooks in the kitchen Day 5-10 and that's going to drive the models crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: it's funny how the general storm pattern hasn't changed much the whole season. hopefully it doesn't slide too far south. that march event was too complicated for us to really do too well. maybe this setup will be cleaner. My guess (wishcast) is right through C. NC and South Central VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 I thought the GFS looked pretty good for 5 -6 days out. That's still plenty of time for it to come north. Last nights system had me on the northern edge 5 days ago and ground truth was a couple hundred miles further north. As long as it's not a weak strung out POS I think we will be sweating a north trend by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 In between times on ukmet. Precip not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: In between times on ukmet. Precip not out yet That's a pretty decent look I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.