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NorthArlington101

April Mid/Long Range & Disco

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If your posts ever start making sense I will start to worry about my sanity. 

Yeah man I'm all about breaking the status quo. Because while you may be loved you can still be mislead by the global pressure cooker.

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38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Odd, because Kutchera is usually conservative vs 10:1

colder column temperatures are wish casting higher ratios 

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So we get a good SECS Saturday to set us up for the Tuesday HECS.  I have that about right? Lol glad my next golf round isn’t until April 20

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52 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I been telling y'all not to worry about suppression. You watch, before this is over you will be concerned with being on the southern edge, while the rest of us are looking at rain or snow tv.

I haven't been worried about it. Just observing model runs. When this was a more amplified system a few days ago I didn't like seeing it become a weak wave way south. But it was going through a transition on guidance. Now that it's settled on a west to east wave idea I like exactly where it's at right now. 

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Euro Kuchera map also looks odd. Has a couple of 15 inch amount circling DC, and then half that a few miles north.

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18 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I believe I've heard forecasters in the South refer to a 48-hour rule; as such don't believe any forecast of snow until you are within 48 hours; perhaps that applies here in early/mid April

 

Virginia and southern Maryland IS the South. You Northerners don't just get to annex it when you see fit.

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Record cold being modeled for Saturday across model suites.  Coldest high temperature on record for 4/7 at the DCA site is 41 in 2007.  At Dulles, 42 was the record low max, also in 2007.  At MRB, 38 in 1982.

 

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I'll say this...i am in La Crosse Wisconsin and it's dumping snow and it's not accumulating well...it is building up but not fast. La Crosse Wisconsin in April > Stafford Virginia in April

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I have no fantasy about accumulating snow during prime daylight hours in April. But it will be cool if we can get some heavy snow to watch it fall. Any significant accumulations this time of year need to happen at night. Daylight Savings Time and all...

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13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'll say this...i am in La Crosse Wisconsin and it's dumping snow and it's not accumulating well...it is building up but not fast. La Crosse Wisconsin in April > Stafford Virginia in April

Yea I'm not happy about the timing. It can accumulate but it has to be cold and it has to thump. We seem to have the cold. Need rates too. If it's 30 and coming down 1-2" an hour it will overcome radiation. If it's 32 and snowing 1/2-.75" an hour it will be snow tv. 

I had a snow around this time of year at Penn State in 2003. When it was thumping it accumulated even in the day. Lighter rates and the drip drip drip started. The radiation difference from there to here isn't that significant. So it can but only if its really comming down. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I had a snow around this time of year at Penn State in 2003. When it was thumping it accumulated even in the day. Lighter rates and the drip drip drip started. The radiation difference from there to here isn't that significant. So it can but only if its really comming down. 

I was there for that storm!  Don't remember that level of detail though.  

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58 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

So we get a good SECS HECS Saturday to set us up for the Tuesday HECS.  I have that about right? Lol glad my next golf round isn’t until April 20

Fixed... anything over 4 inches in April is Historic.  How many times has the I-95 corridor seen 4 inches from a storm in April?

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I was there for that storm!  Don't remember that level of detail though.  

Cool. That was a good year and a good time up there :)  I graduated that summer. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cool. That was a good year and a good time up there :)  I graduated that summer. 

That was an awesome snow year.  Made up a good bit for the dumpster fires that were my freshman-junior years.  Had snow from Halloween to Easter in 02-03.  

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I’ll take the over on those surface temps.

Just read Mount Holly updated AFD. Not even the mention of snow for the weekend lol.

Admittedly I remain very skeptical. Really hard to go against rapidly warming climo. People need to realize that the advertised 500 mb look/ 850 mb temps, which would be pretty damn nice in mid winter, do not translate quite the same way on April 8th.

I am more interested in the winds and potential severe for tomorrow with temps approaching 70 . Wind Advisory for here.

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Euro Kuchera map also looks odd. Has a couple of 15 inch amount circling DC, and then half that a few miles north.

Dont sweat it. It wont look anything like that in another model cycle. :P 

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9 minutes ago, Scraff said:

So we have 2 snow shots Saturday and Tuesday? 

AB99257F-4B18-416D-98A3-4FC6D8BAD63C.gif

Exactly what next run is going to show.

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15 minutes ago, Amped said:

Exactly what next run is going to show.

That’s the part to be cautious about.  We get so caught up now in day 4/5 threats because models have proven to be accurate “sometimes” at that range.  We need to get to this time tomorrow with this threat still there for me to take it seriously.

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