Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 724
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thats typical with the GEFS members for whatever reason. The herd mentality. A couple runs from now when the op has a "new" solution for next weekend, there likely wont be any members with snow down south.

No doubt the herd mentality is a factor in the solutions ( tropical season was proof of that) but herd or no herd the model " thinks " it could snow down there and actually it's been showing that possibility for several runs ..it's just this latest ensemble run that really added more hits. I personally believe the big hits down there are extreme long shots but reading thru my Ludlum books ..the south has gotten accumulating snow in April several times in the last couple hundred years and it will happen again. 

 

With the reference in bold to several hundred years, wonder how many of those individual events correlate to some of the occasional global spikes induced by volcanic activity.  For instance 1816, the oft quoted "year without a summer" caused by the eruption of Tambora in 1815.  No intent at all to open the global climate can of worms (the least of my intentions).  Just curious about the correlations that maybe help explain some of the rarer events, like the concept of sn in the south in April. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not sure of the temps, but the CMC has what looks to be a more favorable track.   Interesting how it had nothing last night and now has a decent storm like the GFS

850s look good but anymore amped and north and well you know.  It’s keeping my interest for now.  GFS was a big jump north...or maybe just more amped up.  Euro should be of interest.  I like the 1030 on the CMC.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

Don't know why the GFS amplifies so much only to take a closed H5 low due east off  Ocean City.    Maybe it's the time of year, or maybe the GFS is crazy.

The other way around seems more likely. The high is so strong, much less amplification takes place than what the GFS is showing. Smashing it's way into a massive 1026 mb high, doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The other way around seems more likely. The high is so strong, much less amplification takes place than what the GFS is showing. Smashing it's way into a massive 1026 mb high, doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

We need the Goldilocks scenario.  1026 is not that amazing if the low is sub 995.  Above 1000 and it may scoot south.  Enthused for sure.  Long time however for things to go wrong.  This really is the Hail Mary.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We need the Goldilocks scenario.  1026 is not that amazing if the low is sub 995.  Above 1000 and it may scoot south.  Enthused for sure.  Long time however for things to go wrong.  This really is the Hail Mary.  

Yeah, I think I may be more interested in this than I should be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I think I may be more interested in this than I should be.

Tough not to be.  As depicted on the CMC I would think it’s a historic April event.  That’s why it’s hard to take it seriously.  Yet the ops are not wildly different at this point and the cold looks legit so that part of the equation might be solid.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The other way around seems more likely. The high is so strong, much less amplification takes place than what the GFS is showing. Smashing it's way into a massive 1026 mb high, doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

There is no northern stream to yank anything north. Just a rapidly modifying arctic airmass and rising heights offshore preventing the rapid coastal tranfer that a weak wave in a progressive flow would favor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It won't be.  I didn't give it the name Dr. No for nothing.

24 hours from the money panels but looks way better this run vs last night. Boundary is further south and pressing as the system is coming at us from the west. We will see but it looks close. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

24 hours from the money panels but looks way better this run vs last night. Boundary is further south and pressing as the system is coming at us from the west. We will see but it looks close. 

Oh boy.  Bring it home psu...bring it home. Your analysis is only second to yoda.  He is the Jedi master of pbp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...