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April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

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13 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Scary thought... from 98/99 through 00/01 we suffered through a 3 year nina.  Other then a 10 day stretch during January 2000 when aided by blocking we got some hits...it was a pretty sucky 3 year run overall.  But 2001 had a lot of similarities to this past winter.  A pretty good blocking period that did a lot more for places to our north and east then here...cold periods but without much payoff here with snow compared to all around us.  And I remember at the time some thinking "next year will be better" and of course we know how that ended...2002 lol.  It was a neutral year coming off some solid blocking...and to be fair the first half of 2001/02 had some pretty good blocking but the whole of N. Amer was warm and the blocking could't do anything about that and the winter sucked everywhere.  

Not saying we go down that road.  But I never assume next year will be better.  Every year is its own crap shoot.  And especially when this year wasn't really a bad snow year on a larger scale...only locally.  The "we're due" meter might not be as high as we think.  

Save the scary stories for Halloween...lol A 3 year Niña would be awful and unfair weather!!...But if it came I wouldn't waste my time tracking anything knowing the storms would probably end up evrywhere BUT here. Is it safe to say that in La Niña years, just assume it's gonna miss? Lol At least in a moderate Niño the chances are better...

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For those of you who love the warm humid weather, you will get to enjoy Saturday and all of Sunday, cool air may not get here til noon Monday as the entire weather system slows down dramatically.

More time for me to suffer in inhospitably hot humid conditions, especially at night when I try (unsuccessfully) to sleep.

OF COURSE it will wait til Monday afternoon to cool down.

More bad news in the offing. Next week will be cool early then warm up dramatically as the CONUS shifts to a frigid west/record hot and humid east alignment right into December 2018!!!

 

Subtropics will dance like Smeagol did when he got that Ring! Record early Summer is on the way lmao.

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6 hours ago, Jebman said:

For those of you who love the warm humid weather, you will get to enjoy Saturday and all of Sunday, cool air may not get here til noon Monday as the entire weather system slows down dramatically.

More time for me to suffer in inhospitably hot humid conditions, especially at night when I try (unsuccessfully) to sleep.

OF COURSE it will wait til Monday afternoon to cool down.

More bad news in the offing. Next week will be cool early then warm up dramatically as the CONUS shifts to a frigid west/record hot and humid east alignment right into December 2018!!!

 

Subtropics will dance like Smeagol did when he got that Ring! Record early Summer is on the way lmao.

Kid in a candy store!!!

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11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Save the scary stories for Halloween...lol A 3 year Niña would be awful and unfair weather!!...But if it came I wouldn't waste my time tracking anything knowing the storms would probably end up evrywhere BUT here. Is it safe to say that in La Niña years, just assume it's gonna miss? Lol At least in a moderate Niño the chances are better...

The problem is not ALL storms will miss. Most will.  That's the key to tracking and not going crazy in a Nina. Expect most threats to fail. But every once in a while there are hits. In the 98-2001 period we did gave the march 99 storm, the January 2000 storms, and the one decent snow in January 2001. This year was frustrating but we did get a decent snow in December and March.  So a Nina is a bad pattern for snow here but it's not always a shutout.  But you have to know going in what the deal is. That's why I don't go crazy tracking in a Nina. I expect fail. I'm just tracking "just in case" we get the fluke win and I sit back and enjoy the ride. Those expecting results at a good rate in a Nina will get disappointed. 

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13 hours ago, Jebman said:

For those of you who love the warm humid weather, you will get to enjoy Saturday and all of Sunday, cool air may not get here til noon Monday as the entire weather system slows down dramatically.

More time for me to suffer in inhospitably hot humid conditions, especially at night when I try (unsuccessfully) to sleep.

OF COURSE it will wait til Monday afternoon to cool down.

More bad news in the offing. Next week will be cool early then warm up dramatically as the CONUS shifts to a frigid west/record hot and humid east alignment right into December 2018!!!

 

Subtropics will dance like Smeagol did when he got that Ring! Record early Summer is on the way lmao.

Winters not dead yet my friend. This year wants to go out with a fight

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

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6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The problem is not ALL storms will miss. Most will.  That's the key to tracking and not going crazy in a Nina. Expect most threats to fail. But every once in a while there are hits. In the 98-2001 period we did gave the march 99 storm, the January 2000 storms, and the one decent snow in January 2001. This year was frustrating but we did get a decent snow in December and March.  So a Nina is a bad pattern for snow here but it's not always a shutout.  But you have to know going in what the deal is. That's why I don't go crazy tracking in a Nina. I expect fail. I'm just tracking "just in case" we get the fluke win and I sit back and enjoy the ride. Those expecting results at a good rate in a Nina will get disappointed. 

I learned that the hard way this year...lol (I've only been tracking for about 4 years...this year showed me exactly why La Niña snow totals look the way they do around here).

Next question...How soon could we know if this arch-enemy Niña is gonna finally go away (hopefully to be replaced by friendly El Niño or return for another year of misery? Lol)

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I learned that the hard way this year...lol (I've only been tracking for about 4 years...this year showed me exactly why La Niña snow totals look the way they do around here).

Next question...How soon could we know if this arch-enemy Niña is gonna finally go away (hopefully to be replaced by friendly El Niño or return for another year of misery? Lol)

Over the summer the enso models typically start having more reliable output. Before that they tend to make head fakes frequently. Once we get into September they should have a decent handle on where we're going. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Over the summer the enso models typically start having more reliable output. Before that they tend to make head fakes frequently. Once we get into September they should have a decent handle on where we're going. 

Like last year. I have no idea of the enso model biases, but I've seen they're usually too high at range? I remember talk of the 14/15 winter having a super Nino, and of course last year.

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8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Like last year. I have no idea of the enso model biases, but I've seen they're usually too high at range? I remember talk of the 14/15 winter having a super Nino, and of course last year.

2014-15 was a weak Nino IIRC. The following winter was the super Nino.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

2014-15 was a weak Nino IIRC. The following winter was the super Nino.

I think you're right about the weak Nino thing. IIRC it was 13/14 cold neutral, 14/15 weak Nino, 15/16 super Nino. I looked back at the winter disco threads, and most were speculating a larger Nino than what happened (ex. enso models in March/April '14 showing a mod Nino).

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6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I learned that the hard way this year...lol (I've only been tracking for about 4 years...this year showed me exactly why La Niña snow totals look the way they do around here).

Next question...How soon could we know if this arch-enemy Niña is gonna finally go away (hopefully to be replaced by friendly El Niño or return for another year of misery? Lol)

This timeline shows that multi year Ninos are fairly rare, but it doesn't include Neutral Enso years either. It also appears as if a multi year Nino is rarely followed closely by another Nino. 

748ba296fd5d729db6cb331b9609ad67.png.438a44e8dc43250051605750b362bfa0.png

Check out 1926-1940. Could you imagine going 14 years without at least a nino winter? That's like spending my entire life (so far) in at least a neutral or below. Unless we went through another 14 years of that, but with copious amounts of blocking, and a juiced stj at times (hopefully with the blocking), that's no way to go through life.

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And this is DCA's average snowfall for part of that span (1919-1933). Bleh

snow-120.jpg.087f22afd006a8ece5e90e270a7ae11a.jpg

Looking into it actually, the stretch from 1932-33 through 1939-40 was pretty decent. It was from 1926-27 through 31-32 that was horrible. 

5ad2cf70cd23a_d4b248d1a84a0610ce41e59b84a6170e1.png.99a022a0528817077c4f5586ff245e98.png

This 6 year stretch averaged a whopping 7.25" at DCA.. this even beats out the stretch from 96-97 through 01-02 (7.4"), which had a 0.1" winter in there! 

 

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On 4/14/2018 at 8:17 PM, Cobalt said:

Like last year. I have no idea of the enso model biases, but I've seen they're usually too high at range? I remember talk of the 14/15 winter having a super Nino, and of course last year.

One bias (or problem) with enso models is the spring barrier period. Long range enso stuff doesn't even start to become a good tool until June and that's just the beginning. Long range enso is so inaccurate in the spring that you would probably come out ahead picking the opposite phase of the Cfs and eps plumes coming out over the next few months. 

I find no value discussing upcoming year enso conditions before mid summer. 

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I think you have to look at past enso data and weigh it heavily.  Were we to have had a nino this year, it would have gone totally against all stats following a strong nino (16).  

I think the past stats would suggest this year coming is a bit more unpredictable 

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On 4/14/2018 at 5:15 PM, psuhoffman said:

Over the summer the enso models typically start having more reliable output. Before that they tend to make head fakes frequently. Once we get into September they should have a decent handle on where we're going. 

Subsurface in the Spring is a really good indicator. This one looks like Weak-Moderate El Nino at least 70%. Could deviate in the Fall though. 7 years had subsurface progression similar to Jan - March, 3 were El Nino's 4 were Neutral. 

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